North pole to melt this year?

Gore was driven by religion?

More likely money.

But I'm open to evidence showing his religious motivations, if you can provide them.

But last time I checked, Gore wasn't a scientist.
 
As evidence for my position that much (most) of global warming has been caused by natural variation, I point to a brand new study out in Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz which shows that the 2,000 year trend in Northern Europe is actually cooling rather than warming. Now, after the Hockey Stick Graph and the crappy "science" that was based upon, I admit to being highly skeptical of the use of tree ring data as a proxy for temperatures, but what made Mann's study such a joke was a clear case of cherry-picking data to create a faulty impression. His study was junk. I suppose tree rings can be used if the use of them is consistent and not selective. If this study makes the same mistakes that Mann made, I hope that is exposed. For now though, the study appears to be well-founded:

Journal of Nature Climate Change

here is a graph from that new study that shows what the trend has been over the past 2 millennia:

09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg
 
What's interesting about this year's record decline is that instead of heat and a persistent strong (and unusual) summer time high pressure ridge helping to break up the ice, it was heat + unusually strong Arctic storm that pushed the levels lower.
The Link

In reply to:
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to me it looks like 5 years after predicting an "ice free North Pole" in 2012, we might finally get a new low on our 30 year historical record. this year looks to have a great chance at a new low yet we will still have over 4,000,000 square kilometers of ice. i will say though, of all of the doomsday predictions we have gotten from AGW theory, this is the only one that sort of appears to be happening. We will see if the trend continues downward or rebounds over the next few years as the AMO is scheduled to go negative by 2015 and will keep waters cooler around the Arctic.
 
sgf_trace.jpg


The Springfield MO observation station for 11 Nov 1911. The only day in U.S. history in which record highs and lows were recorded at the same locations.
 
i am still not sure why we should be shocked at a negative trend in ice. we have been warming for 200 years, most of which was a period that can not possibly be blamed upon mankind, but now we are supposedly sure that mankind is to blame for the past 50 years. in the mean time, the arctic has responded to 200 years of warming with a reduction in ice (while the Antarctic sea ice has grown). so this is the year that the thread was originally written about and this will be the FIRST year to FINALLY surpass 2007's record low ice extent. In the mean time we are in a 15 year statistically flat time for global temperatures according to 2 out of the 4 indices and only the barest of upward trends for the two others.



the 4 major indices temperature graphs from 1997 to the current time (i.e. 15.5 years)
 
8.3% unemployment, people underwater on their housing loans, mayors threatening Christian businesses, you've got a full blown commie in the white house, and you still wanna talk about the north pole melting?
 
Incidentally, a new study out in the Journal of Climate reports that clouds have been decreasing at a rate of .4% per decade for the last 4 decades (39 years). This is important because it is exactly what Dr. Roy Spencer has been hypothesizing for a while. A 1.6% decrease in cloud coverage could explain a large part of the .3-.4 degree Celsius warming we have seen over the past 39 years.
 
So how is that arctic ice going? Mop has claimed a couple years ago that it is going to spring back. Is this occurring? Were the scientists or mop right?
 
the trend is down if we look at the last 30 years. The trend is up if we go back 8,000 years. What timeframe did you have in mind?

It has been a big ice melt year. This year easily breaks the 30 year record. Should be interesting to see how far it down goes before it starts freezing back up.
 
I will admit thought Paso, this is the one area where the scientists who are predicting less and less ice are still correct. there are many other predictions that appear false. should we look at those too or do we have to say that AGW theory is entirely confirmed by this one prediction? (one that could easily be explained by natural variation by the way).
 
AGW is confirmed by far more than this event although I must comment that this should leave little doubt about the warming planet. I guess the fall back argument now is that sure the planet is warming, but how do we know man is to blame, right?
 
It's rather ironic that this thread has been going on so long that today it was announced that arctic sea ice has already reached a record low ---- and there's still a couple of weeks of melting to go:

The Link
 
more likely three more weeks

reporters cannot add

the usual last day of declining sea ice extent is September 13th (although this is plus or minus a week or so)

September 13th is in slightly less than three weeks not two weeks
 
Original post: "North pole to melt this year (2008)?"

If the North pole is ice-free this year, 2012, does that make the original post "true" or "false?"

Will it be ice-free this year?

Isn't the main object lesson from this thread not that there is a melting trend in the Arctic, but that doomsday predictions about global warming are almost always highly exaggerated--especially as to the rate of change? Or is the fall-back position that some ice did melt in 2008?
 
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