North pole to melt this year?

I have been following this issue for 5 years now and I can say with some authority that more news agencies and more scientists are starting to come out to question the "consensus." This is interesting to me. I believe we have been warming for 200 years and as such we may soon have Another warmest year on record, at which point everyone will go apoplectic again. In the mean time, if this period of 15 years os statistical flat temperatures continues for a few more years, all bets are off. Here is an article in Der Spiegel questioning warming. This comes on the heals of some fresh embarrassment from the Alarmists after a new "hockey stick" study was published and within 3 weeks completely discredited.

Der Spiegel review by Pierre
 
It really has been Bevo. Are you holding out hope that it can be the worst on record? ; )

Funny enough, as we head in to the 17th year of no statistical warming, the wheels seem to be coming off the whole AGW bandwagon don't they? Even major dailies in Germany and England are starting to call the entire orthodoxy of AGW into question. People are finally recognizing en masse that AGW has been overstated, and catastrophe over-predicted. How long will you hold on to the absurdity BI?

Incidentally, there was a hilarious article on the Daily Kos praising Michael Mann (of "hockey stick" fame) which ends with a poll. Even though the Kos is by most reports a HEAVILY trafficked site and very "progressive" they only managed to find 130 votes in favor of Michael Mann, while over 5,000 people have already said he has twisted data and/or deserves to be fired! This seems to reflect nicely what has happened to public opinion on AGW.

Now the predictable first response to this fact is to say that the poll was probably "hacked" by skeptics, but that still begs the question as to why a site that appears to get 40,000 visits per day by primarily "liberal" readers could only manage to land 130 votes in favor of Michael Mann. I admit that I first saw this on Wattsupwithathat, but he was reporting it after the poll already had heavily skewed votes in favor of a skeptical perspective. Interesting eh?

Daily Kos pro-Michael Mann article

In addition to that we see that, aside from the Arctic, we still have no hot spot in the stratosphere as predicted by virtually every AGW model, we still have TONS of ice in the Antarctic, sea level rise has been fairly static (the rate of rise, not the sea level) and many other indicators contradict the AGW predictions.

What do you make of all of that BI?

By the way, I also know that the public is very fickle and that if next year we manage to eek out a "hottest year on record" that surpasses the 1998 record, everyone will swing back over to believing in AGW. Nevermind the fact that we have been coming out of the Little Ice Age for 200 years and are probably due, by natural variation alone, for a new hottest year.

time to
whiteflag.gif
 
fine, so i am sure it won't bother you if i keep reporting the bountiful evidence against AGW as you sometimes like to report the scant evidence in favor of it?

; )
 
forgive me if I find that a bit difficult to believe. You have about 20 posts on this thread and virtually everyone is an attempt to buttress the pro-AGW position in one way or another. that's fine and of course the exact opposite could be said about me, but then I am not claiming to not have a dog in this fight. you might as well admit that you believe AGW and want to see it proven true.
 
The 17th year of no statistical warming. Silliest claim ever.

Is the atmosphere the only part of the earth that retains heat?

Is it even the primary heat repository on the planet?
 
Why is or how can the polar caps continue to melt if heat retention went flat for 17 years?

Dazzle me with your thermodynamics acumen.
 
this is a very simplistic question paso. it is also misleading. the Antarctic has grown and is near an all time peak in the historic record. Regardless, the Arctic does not only melt due to warming as wind, the AO and many other factors are in play. you seem to not understand that we are discussing a chaotic system.

Regardless, everyone else seems to be catching on that the climate has not cooperated. i just linked you to 44 climate models vs. reality, but i am sure you have a very simplistic explanation for that too. would you mind sharing it with me?
 
mop, those models look pretty good right up until 1996. When were the 44 models created? It looks like they used historical data up until 1996 and at that point extrapolated based on modeling. Just curious.
 
great question Uninformed, hopefully someone will ask Dr. Spencer that question because it is key to a fuller understanding. I assume you are right in general. I am sure there is much hind-casting, but where did the "forecasting" start?
 
not much…we are coming up on 17 years of no statistical warming globally. this seems a fairly modest year in terms of ice melt, although there is plenty of time for that to change. we have more and more studies challenging what used to be called "the consensus." It seems many are waking up to the reality that the problem has been vastly overstated. I am eager to see what 3 more years of no warming might bring politically and in the scientific community (sadly, the two are oftentimes far too tightly connected). but then again, with 200 years of warming behind us, we are due for another "hottest year on record" one of these days. if that happens, then all the usual suspects (you included?) will get apoplectic and we will have to suffer through a few more years of thousands of apocalyptic prophecies of the coming doom supposedly tied to warmer temperatures and more CO2.

How about in your view?
 
as i said, here is the 30% coverage graph of ice this year. It is the mildest start to an ice melt season we have had since I have been watching since 2008. Then again, with last year's record melt, it is reasonable to believe that the ice is quite thin, so it should melt more quickly as we move into summer.

30% Ice Coverage graph for the Arctic
 
here is a fun graph if I can get it to come through. this one looks at all of the major accepted global temperature data sets to see how far the "flat" period goes back in each one. It is fairly impressive how long the air temperature has not warmed now:


offset-0-34.png
 
so last year was the lowest year on record for Arctic sea ice. It is important to recognize that our record for this only goes back to 1979, which was the end of 30 years of flat to cooling temperatures before the temperature of the earth rose rather quickly for the following 20 years until leveling off the past 12-16 years (with 1998 still holding the record in the majority of global data sets).

Having said that, this year the ice is proving, thus far, to be remarkably resilient. with only 6 weeks left of melting (at the most?), we are currently on the same track as about 2005. In fact, we are above every year that has happened during this 5 year thread. I fully expect it to start dropping rather rapidly soon, but a new record seems highly unlikely at this point. For me, the question is more about whether or not this year will end up in 2nd place for most ice melt, or something like 3rd-5th.

30% ice coverage

15% ice coverage

another 15% ice coverage with more years included (?)
 
incidentally, there is a big storm brewing in the Arctic, which may help break things up like last year. could get interesting. I still say we will not reach a new low this year and I expect we will see a bit of a rebound from last year up to 2009 levels or so.
 
well 2013 ice melt is coming to an end. we are probably less than a month from the minimum. It has been an unusual winter in the Arctic for sure. In fact, it has set the record for the coldest summer on record in the Arctic going back to 1958. This was a bit of a surprise. The ice has melted to be sure, but it is still above about 5 years. The next 2 weeks should tell the story. Once we get a week or so into September, the reduction in melt ought to quickly ramp up until it starts to refreeze. Based on how quickly the temperatures dropped below freezing this summer (way ahead of schedule), the minimum is probably due for somewhere around the 10th which is 19 days from now. This could be off by a week or even two weeks, but is a fair estimate based upon past years.
 
on top of that Gore lied and said that "they" are adding a "category 6" level to hurricanes because they have gotten so much worse. this is absurd on multiple levels, but the most obvious reason is that we are now 8 years since a category 3, 4 or 5 has actually made landfall in the US. We are enjoying our largest hurricane drought on record.
 
I saw something recently that mentioned the volcano activity was to blame for the pause in warming. If that is the case it seems if the warming is getting too bad then maybe more air pollution is the answer? Maybe it could be simulated volcanic ash that actually helps the atmosphere and the ground as it comes back as rain?

The reverse question also arises in my mind: if volcano activity caused the pause then the clean air act(and resulting less and varied solute in the air) caused the warming?

Whatever the case, it seems that making policy from such wild speculation over what mother nature will produce or allow is folly of the largest kind.
 
So, as for the original topic of the thread, apparently this year the arctic has below average ice, but significantly more than last year. And, the Antarctic has record levels of ice.

From some article I got, just googling "arctic ice extent" (whatever....)

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