North pole to melt this year?

[Texoz]

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[mop]

keep rising like they have for the past 11 years? oh wait...they haven't. in fact, they have been flatline to negative the past 7 years and 1998 and 2002 more or less tied for hottest years on record. so it seems we are at the very least in quite a long break. when does it have to start getting warmer again for us to believe this? how long of a break can global warming take and still be considered global warming?

 

[mop]

i do LOVE the idea of coming up with scientific innovations. if all the tipping point statements are true, we are already screwed and our money would be MUCH better spent trying to innovate...

 

[Coelacanth]

Someone needs to tell Mr. Albedo Effect to get off his lazy butt and start effecting.

 

[Coelacanth]

 

[Texoz]

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[mop]

Texoz...serious question here. why is the Antarctic continuing to gain ice to the point that it is at the most ice on record in the past 12 months? does it matter if ice shelves are going away if the overall ice is growing? i honestly don't understand why it is a concern if the ice is growing. could you clarify because it is very possible that i am missing something obvious. it wouldn't be the first time!

 

[Texoz]

Not sure where you're getting your info, but according to theseThe Link
The Link
The Link it is losing ice.

The source of the most ice data (US National Snow and Ice Data Center) believes that Antarctica is losing ice.The Link

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[hornpharmd]

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[mop]

look at that ice go! highest level at this time of the year in the last 6 years...


ice doing well

but then again, we are just starting the melting season....should be a fun summer.

 

[mop]

uh oh....the arctic is already ice free!!!

oh wait, that was in 1959, never mind. but i thought we had a chance for last summer to be the FIRST recorded ice free north pole? what happened?



ice free arctic 1959


turns out this is not so terribly unusual and happened 50 summers ago!

 

[Texoz]

Cute pic, mop, but do you understand what "ice free" means? It means no ice. Not low ice.

May report is out.The Link

Levels heading toward 2007 ice.

 

[mop]

sounds good Texoz, but then i will hold you to that! so you are saying now that the standard is ice free not low ice eh? ok. so, the fact that a submarine emerged in 1959 (50 years ago) in the north pole, is unimpressive in all of this noise about a melting arctic? what happened? how come it has been so long since we have seen that? could the ice shrink and then grow again in cycles?

"heading towards 2007 ice" just means it is summer and it is melting, so yes, it is heading towards it. we will see if it dips below 2007 though.

meanwhile, global ice is average currently:

 

[hornpharmd]

www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

Summer melt started slow this year but picked up big time in May. Way below the 1979-2000 year average and approaching the 2007 trend right now. Not a good sign at all.

 

[hornpharmd]

www.nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090603_Figure3.png

Once again May compared to past Mays shows an overall declining trend. This was the same for February, March, and April. Each month has shown this overall decline when compared to yearly levels in the same months. The overall trends are going down. 2.5% decline per decade right now.

 

[GT WT]

MOP?

Come on dude, get with it. Surely you have an analysis by Anthony Watts that refutes Hornpharmd's link!

 

[mop]

why would i need one? the Arctic has fluctuated always...more of the same.


besides, i am not the one who is afraid to have a real discussion.

 

[mop]

why are you afraid GT?

the strange thing about those who use ad hominem is that if they are correct in their attacks against the person making the arguments, then a REAL argument should be all the easier to make and win. instead they choose the coward's path and attack the messenger rather than the message.

 

[mop]

arctic within one standard deviation of normal.

 

[GT WT]

MOP,

What does the term 'standard deviation' mean to you? How does it relate to statistical significance? How does it relate to ecological significance?

It's a cool term.

 

[Texoz]

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[mop]

Texoz....yes, and last fall it grew at the fastest rate on record. i didn't hear you getting all excited about that now did i?

my point is NOT that the arctic has not been low lately, but that the verdict is still out on what it means and what the cause is. i am curious to see what it does this year compared to the past 2 summers. does it go lower? split the difference? end up higher than 2008?

we shall see......but this is only one indicator of global temperatures as there are many other factors affecting the arctic. all the while the antarctic has been trending upwards for decades and the antarctic has 90% of global ice.

 

[mop]

oh...and the ice is currently higher than any year since 2004 at this time, so it is not time to panic yet in terms of this year's extent and area.

 

[mop]

oh...and for the record Texoz, this May was very typical in terms of dropoff and not particularly noteworthy if you look at the IJIS:

 

[hornpharmd]

Well Mop the way it is trending the arctic ice extent is now intersecting with the 2007 trend (which was our previous low). Thus any 1st year or 2nd year ice build up over the last year or 2 will probably be melted away this summer. Thus the only thing positive you could point to in your very short-term trends will get wiped away this year. Don't mean to 'gloat' about that b/c this is horrible news. The overall trend is decrease in arctic sea ice extent and no build up of new ice to become older ice....thus decline in ice extent will continue for now. There just is zero evidence to support a different conclusion.

 

[MojoMan]

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[mop]

don't worry hornpharmd, your "gloating" sounds very much like what i am used to among global warming alarmists. everyone is very excited to see things go bad that much is clear.

but not so fast my friend....you MAY end up being correct, but currently the trend is a slow down and 2009 is still in 3rd place among the past 7 years. not to mention that even 2007 was above other years before all the perfect conditions were met to make it lose ice much faster than those other years. that may happen this year to be sure, but there is a lot of summer left yet.

 

[mop]

false bierce...the Antarctica, contrary to recent claims (yours was actually 18 months old by the way) is still gaining mass overall. in fact, our current global ice level is perfectly at average. if we were losing ice in the arctic and antarctic don't you think that would be impossible?

 

[mop]

yeah Roma, because those scientists aren't at all biased by where their grants are coming from are they?


good thing we have Gore to set us straight eh?

 

[MojoMan]

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