North pole to melt this year?

ice doing ok, but has been better in recent past

i continue to watch the arctic due to this old thread started last spring....currently, it is about to pass 2008 again (it has gone up and down), but still is below 2003's ice build up......keep in mind, these years are all below average, so we would need it to do better than this to get back to average for the past 30 years.
 
well,we are coming to the end of the ice build up for the winter of 2009.....and this year has done fairly well. we shall see how it ends....but here it is as of yesterday's data:


ice extent winter of 2009

it will be interesting to see if it comes in 1st, 2nd or 3rd. currently, i think the best money is on 2nd or 3rd.....but 4th is not out of the range of possibility. of course, this is only since 2003 since this graph only goes back that far......
 
currently, this winter is shaping up to be the 4th highest (4th lowest too!) of the past 7 years in terms of ice extent.......but we probably do have another few weeks until we see it peak, so it will be interesting to see if it can climb back into 3rd place.


ice graph now has2008/2009 in 4th place
 
should be an interesting offseason for ice........

i will say that it looks like 2009 has moved into 3rd place for the last 7 years and got less than 70,000 km away from 2nd place. supposedly the meltoff is more important than the buildup so we will see what happens this summer.
 
Build up is important as well. Noting that February ice buildup has been on a steady decline illustrates this.

I'll check back on the melt in 2-3 months.
 
Think of melt off vs build up this way.

It's easy to get some top layer ice coverage once temps get low enough. It's a lot harder to melt away old ice that's dozens of feet thick. That's why you see mention of old ice vs new ice in the discussions.

The summer Arctic melt of 2007 was devastating to old ice, which is why 2008 was able to almost match 2007 even though global temps and atmospheric conditions weren't as favorable for melting as 2007.
 
but 2008 didn't "almost match 2007"...it missed it by 400,000 square kilometers right? wasn't that what we learned from this thread?
 
.
.
extent_graph_2008.gif


In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
a few points Texoz......that graph only reports 2 years and an "average" that only includes 21 years on a planet that is billions of years old. they also convenient let the average stop 8 years prior to the years we are looking at instead of including all of the years in the data set (the satellites were put into orbit in 1979)........

even with all of those factors in place, it still isn't all that close and looks to be about 10 to 15% above the record. this year ought to be very interesting indeed......if it heads back towards 2007, we may indeed have new record coming soon, if it has more ice than 2008, we may have a new trend (albeit short) in the other direction.
 
Melt, freeze whatever, I'm sure the Congress will find a way to tax it! Bend over middle class, here comes another up the ...
 
I get the feeling that many don't grasp the significance of what's going to happen over the next 20 to 30 years.

Taxes will be the least of our problems.
 
it should be interesting indeed! let's relive this thread!

mop

ps there is more are than in past years, but if it is thinner, it won't matter will it?


ice graph
 
To give this thread its 500th post, I would like to say that this has been an interesting thread to read. Thanks to all who contributed.
popcorn.gif
 
actually, i would love to know how much of poverty is caused by evil governments and how much is caused by merely a lack of food. i wonder where we could find that? at any rate, if the choice is warming or cooling and lack of food is in the equation, we better hope for warming!
 
List of 11 doomsday scenarios more likely than an AGW cataclysm within our lifetimes:

1. Economy collapses, devastating civilization
2. New strain of bubonic plague mutates, devastating civilization
3. Nuclear war breaks out, devastating civilization
4. La Palma collapse causes tsunami, devastating civilization
5. Next ice age cycle begins, devastating civilization
6. Antichrist arrives, devastating civilization
7. Yellowstone supervolcano explodes, devastating civilization
8. Marxist revival succeeds, devastating civilization
9. Asteroid collides with Earth, devastating civilization
10. Aliens arrive to exploit resources, devastating civilization
11. Stay-Puft Marshmallow man materializes, devastating civilization
 
I considered including the A&M contingency, but I actually think the AGW cataclysm is more likely.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top