Is there any realistic path for a Romney Victory?

Where is the explanation of how they determined the percentage of D's an R's to use in their poll?

I'm not arguing that Obama has some sort of a lead in Florida. I need for someone to show me data pointing to an expected higher turnout of registered R's vs D's (41-36 vs 36-27)
 
They don't weight by party id.

Sure, but the polls done today are only measuring where the race stands today and not what the race will look like on election day. The polls done at that time will reflect that.
 
Michtex, I applaud you for having the patience to put some sense into our rw brethren. I'm not sure you'll be successful tho.

See, here's what has been happening:

The right created this monster, they named it "Barack HUSSEIN Obama" - BHO. BHO is commie, socialist muslim (??!!), who was born in Kenya. BHO managed to get into Harvard through AA, then "palled around with terrorists" for a while. He then fooled America into voting for him. Then the takeover began - support of Sharia law, taking away peoples' guns for the eventual govt takeover.

A white knight in shining armor then showed up - Mitt Romney. He picked another white knight in shining armor - Paul Ryan. The two of them were finally gonna rid this great country of the black monster - BHO. And then they would "take our country back".

The problem with all this was that all of this was IMAGINARY! Residing only in the MINDS of people who lead their lives based on a fat methane bag radio hosts dictates.

When americans actually started focussing on the issues and realized the bull sh!t that Romney-Ryan were trying to peddle, they said shove it. REALITY HIT HOME! But just as folks who like to live in denial, these same folks are twisting and turning in despair to somehow avoid reality.

It's funny and sad at the same time. In the end, the country wins so it's all good.
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Roger, you're as gifted with wit and wisdom as Sammy Jackson!

Obama won Florida by three points in '08 when enthusiasm for him was at an all time high and enthusiasm for republicans was at a low. Sorry, but it simply isn't the same situation this year. Having Obama up by nine points simply doesn't make sense.
 
Of course there is a realistic path to a Romney victory.
The country is split almost 50/50 between the two parties.
All it takes is some real or faux crisis, economic issue, or semi-scandal, and the election would tip the other way.
It just takes a few of the voters who go either way to change their minds at the last minute, and the whole election swings the other way.
Polls right now might or might not be accurate for right now, but they likely won't be accurate for election day in November.
 
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Same things that Dems were saying about the Kerry campaign in October 2004.

Sure, in some kind of world where electoral math doesn't matter, there are issues and swings that could influence the election the other way. Chris Christie seemed to think so this morning. All of the "1980 election" posts seem to point that way as well, despite the obvious difference that the GOP nominee had support from the middle that year.

Maybe Obama, within the next month, will admit to lying about being born in Kenya and then Indonesia to further his early career and get his college scholarships, but I doubt it. It would take that kind of gaffe to swing the ENTIRE election. Similar to Carter saying that Amy told him the biggest threat to the US was nuclear weapons.

I'd be shocked if Obama ended up with fewer than 320-330 electoral votes at this point. He is only losing in one swing state. He only needs about 6/12 swings to win the whole shebang, and maybe as few as 4 if it's the big ones (and it appears to be that way right now). This isn't a couple thousand votes per state we're talking about. It's tens of thousands in the close ones, and hundreds of thousands in states like PA and OH.
 
It wouldn't matter if BO admitted to all of the above lies plus the fact that he and his minions flat out lied about the terrorist attack on 9-11-2012 (which they did.) In fact, if he said he was a Marxist who wanted to turn the US into a communist state, the mindless will still vote for him. Cause gosh! They got a free phone!! I'm not saying any of the above things are at all true, just that it doesn't matter to the blind followers. Long live the king!!
 
There are so many overly confident, smug and obnoxious quotes to choose from on this thread. I wouldn't know where to start. I imagine a bunch of people's hearts sank when they saw this thread had come back up.

At any rate, regardless of who wins now, everyone admits that this became quite competitive. with 2.5 weeks to go, Romney now looks like the leader in the race, but we all know that lead could disappear tomorrow. Interesting that as the new polls are now adding post debate poll responses, Romney is still holding his own. What is even more surprising is that Romney leads solidly in Gallup but only ties in Rasmussen. That goes against traditional wisdom about those two polls.
 
interesting.

so what about this thread Michtex? Do you still think there is no clear path for Romney to win? Is this election over? Has it been over since this thread started weeks ago?

Obviously, I don't at all know who is going to win, but with less than 3 weeks to go, this race is VERY close and any notion of a slam dunk either way is ludicrous.

I am sure you are aware of this Colorado poll that is predicting a Romney win (and has been since late August). So far they have a perfect record in choosing Presidents going back to 1980 (so not terribly long frankly). But more interesting is how accurately they actually predict the outcomes in the elections. I think in the last election they picked all but 2 states correctly. It will be even more astounding if they are correct seeing as they picked it starting in August:

University of Colorado poll
 
of course you are correct. i wasn't thinking "poll" but i said it. it is a model. seems fairly powerful in it's predictive power according to reports (beyond just being right since 1980 which isn't terribly impressive). But we will see.

And yes, you have been tempered in your enthusiasm. Many others on this thread probably wish they could take back their posts. (and they could, but that's where screenshots could help us).
 
I'm looking forward to having the teleprompters broken out, see Obama put that little smart aleck smirk on his face, cock his nose in the air and let the concession speech begin.

I hope it's the mother of all concession speeches, the very best one ever delivered. I hope it puts a tear in every far left loon's eye who voted for him.

Then following the speech, with most in attendance still sobbing, and wiping their snotty noses, I hope he's handcuffed and taken to Guantanamo Bay where he belongs. Once there Obama can relish in what he himself has described as "the most beautiful sound on earth," the Muslim call to prayer.

The Link
 
17 days to go until the election and Romney is up by 6 points in Gallup's latest poll and 2 points in Rasmussen's latest poll. But is there a "realistic path to victory?"
 
it is 15 days until the election and Romney is only up by 7% in the latest Gallup (as of yesterday as today's has not yet been released). but the burning question i think we all have is whether or not he has any chance? is there a realistic path to victory for him?
 
mop
I am less concerned about the last debate now. I htink it will be handled more evenly.
I am concerned about media outlers and how they will try to sway voters.
and i am really concerned about the chicago style politics and a manufactured Oct surprise.
I don't think it can be the Iran deal now that that has put out there
and i don't think it acn be a real" skeleton' from Romney's past.

Hopefully BO has run out of scandals to use.

so yes to answer the OP theres is a realistic path for a Romney victory
 
The Donald Trump/Gloria Allred turned out to be two media hounds begging for attention. But I would still say that there IS a realistic path for a Romney victory. Of course, I am not at all saying he is going to win. For some reason, I sort of expect Obama to win a tight one, but the assumption of the original post is still absurd.
 
Byron York was talking about the electoral college on the way in today, on Bill Bennett's show. I gathered that:

Romney must win Florida and that's looking good.
He must win Virginia and that's very close.

If he doesn't win Ohio, he MUST win Iowa, Wisc, and maybe N.H. Wisconsin looks good (because of Ryan). The Des Moines Register just endorsed him (as have the other 3 major Iowa papers), but it's close. N.H. is close.

Winning Colo. and Nevada wouldn't hurt either, but I don't think they're absolutely necessary.

So, yes, he can squeak out 270 electoral votes.
 
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