Is there any realistic path for a Romney Victory?

Do any of you wonder why TV shows like "The Kardashians" are still on the air, because you don't know anyone who watches them? Obviously, some of us know someone who watches stuff like that but is too ashamed to admit it because it keeps getting renewed.

I wonder is there is anything resembling this phenomenon regarding polling. I know in the last election, it was probably considered cool to vote Obama for the younger folks, others might have felt it proved that they were not prejudiced.

With so many polls/media mocking Mitt Romney do you think there are people that are ashamed to say they are voting Republican, and are telling pollsters something different? Do you think anyone, especially with a black man in office, feels pressured to say one thing, but once the curtain closes in the booth, vote another?

I just know in GWB's last couple of years, I caught flack for voting for him, and it got to the point that I certainly wouldn't lie about it, but I wouldn't bring it up.

I just wonder if the polls are really to be trusted, especially this year, with a black president and a fairly unlikable opponent.
 
It's over, Hussein knows it too, which is why he's been shopping for houses in Hawaii. Mother-in-law is so excited about the upcoming move.

The lame stream media can only slant polls for so long. BaROCK has lost the young vote, the independents, the elderly, black preachers are calling for blacks to not vote at all. BaROCK Hussein can see the writing on the wall, way can't you libs?
 
I will vote for Mitt Romney because Barack obama is a complete fraud, has america's interests last, is a foreign policy disaster, and is just playing Santa Claus, screwing the next generation.

That being said, Mitt Romney will lose because he's a loser politically. He's what, 1-5 in running for office? The guy's a joke.
 
Tough times for Republicans. As Lindsay Graham so piquantly noted, they are being engulfed by demographics. Maybe they will now actually change their message and offer an actual alternative vision instead of Obama lite. You can't beat Obama with Obama.
 
The current polls are not reliably predictive of how the election will turn out in November. In 1980, Carter was up by about 4 points or so at about this stage of the race, and his margin increased to 6 points in late October 1980. Reagan ended up winning that race over Carter by 9.7%, and that was with a third party candidate (Republican John Anderson) taking 6.6% of the vote. And there are numerous other examples. And of course we all know from watching the polls over the last few months how quickly these numbers change.

Also, the polls are currently being conducted as if voter turnout will be the same as it was in 2008, when Obama had a once in a hundred years swell of support behind him. The support for Obama was surreal, with his followers effectively worshiping him as some sort of extraordinary figure that transcended the normal limitations of humanity, anointing him with the expectation of almost supernatural powers. Needless to say, that environment and the expectations that went along with that are long gone.

Not only is the actual turnout not likely to provide the same advantage for Obama as in 2008, in fact the enthusiasm gap actually favors conservative leaning voters by a substantial margin - which is the opposite of what it was in 2008. But none of this is captured by these current polls, which continue to use the 2008 final results as the basis for the polling assumptions in terms of who will show up at the polls. As a result, these polls routinely poll larger numbers of Democrats than Republicans by anywhere from 4% to 13%.

The only polls that anyone will ultimately remember will be the ones taken during the last 10 days prior to the election, as these are the ones that can be checked against the actual results. It will be interesting to see what the polls look like at that time, and on election day. Personally, I am looking forward to seeing that.

Anyone who truly believes this race is over does not have much appreciation for the history of these races. Not only are the polls wrong this far out, they are frequently wrong the very day of the election. For example, remember the Scott Walker recall election just a few months ago. The exit polling on the day of that election showed the race as fingernail-biting dead heat. The final result - Scott Walker won by 7.
 
"In 1980, Carter was up by about 4 points or so at about this stage of the race, and his margin increased to 6 points in late October 1980. Reagan ended up winning that race over Carter by 9.7%"

Carter committed about 9 gaffes between September and November: not attending one of the first planned debates, and his asinine comments about nukes and the economy during the October 28th debate, one week before the general election.

1. Do you think Obama is going to commit the same gaffes?
2. Does Romney portray Reagan-esque qualities?
3. Is there a strong "Romney Democrat" contingent that we just haven't heard about in the media, like we did with "Reagan Democrats" in 1980?

If your answer is yes to all of these, then maybe your premise is valid. But since the answer is most likely no to all of these, I'm not seeing how 1980 parallels this election at all.
 
We know no one's comparing Romney to Reagan. But comparing the 1980 election to the 2012 election can't happen unless you're adequately describing what happened in the landslide political shift of that year. That would involve going into the support Reagan got from the middle-left. And the only way that Romney is going to get those votes is if he has Reagan qualities.
 
Nope, didn't sail over my head. If Romney loses the election, it's mostly his own fault. I agree that he hasn't run his campaign the right way and hasn't been consistent. The reality is that it should have been a Republican candidate's race to lose, and Romney is doing a good job of that.

Having said that, if the reverse was true of Obama, there would still be glowing headlines for Obama. Also, does anyone seriously believe that Obama is up by double digits in Ohio and Florida? The data doesn't support it.
 
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