Is there any realistic path for a Romney Victory?

Great post, Mr. Deez. I'd like to cut and paste it all over the internet.

It was simply a stupid thing to say, even behind closed doors. That's why several Republlcan senate candidates etc... have publicly disavowed it. Were it a political winner, they would have embraced it.
 
No michtex, not those polls. I should have been clearer......polls conducted by state-level political organizations. The ones campaigns use to make decisions, not the ones newspapers uee to sell ad space.
 
Weak, even for a weakling like you, 123.

Write-in Ryan would have just as good a chance as Mitt: next-to none.
 
To the OP: No.
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The polls - which now show BO and Romney in a dead heat nationally - overstate BO's position because of 3 factors:

1. Almost all oversample Democrats

2. Obama consistently overpolls. That is, more people say they will vote or have voted for him than actually do or did. Remarkably, that's even true for exit polls, which otherwise tend to be extremely accurate.

3. Historically, the undecideds break strongly for the challenger. Therefore, a poll that shows a 47-47 tie will likely break 52-48 Romney (ignoring minor 3rd party candidates).

Add a couple of points to Romney because of oversampling of Dems and one more because of the tendency for Obama to overpoll, and now it's a 55-45 blowout.

Romney will win and it won't be as close as people think.
 
The problem with the title of this thread is that it is in itself "a spin."

The question for Obama is: how much enthusiasm is there in 2012 to vote for him like there was in 2008?

I'm also looking forward to the debates. It would be refreshing to have a moderator like the reporter for Univison, who asked Obama tougher questions than he's ever been asked by the American press
 
Attack my username, eh 123? You have strong arguments indeed.

A weak troll who posts such inane, hate-filled crap that most of the righties here think you to be either a fraud or a fool.

Have a good weekend.
 
Oh mesohorny has stepped on his widdle bottom lip.

What, not so much fun when the tables are turned? Quit being a crybaby at the very least. If you dish it out, you ought to be able to take. Puss

You're correct, I've been called numerous names, have you seen me crying about it? No, and you won't.
 
Total percentage is irrelevant. Of course more show up for Presidential elections. I'm talking about percentage of Dems vs. Reps.

Let's also not forget how many Dems showed their displeasure for Obama in the primaries by voting for unknown candidates and, in one case, a guy in prison.
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I remember Dick Morris, he's the guy who said that Romney would be ahead in the polls by 5% after the R convention. How did that prediction turnout?

As to his claim "1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin. ".

Gallup,Pew, the pollster for ABC News don't use election turnout to weight their samples. That POS Rasmussen poll does. I'd be surprised if many do what he claims. The dude is full of it.
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123, you don't hurt my feelings. After posting on HF for over 13 yrs, I take ignorant, last-word posters like you with a grain of salt, and just sit back and watch them act the fool.

But even after 13 yrs I sometimes still find myself getting into pissing contests with some of the high school kids who post here.
 
Gallup came out yesterday with their poll showing the race a dead heat at 47-47. Today Rasmussen is also showing the race a dead heat, 46-46.

Personally, I do not believe any of these polls are reliably predictive of what will happen on November 6. However, with these two polls showing a dead even tie, with 6.5 weeks to go, with none of the debates having occurred yet, and with an apparent built-in lean in the polls towards the Democrats as a result of the polling using 2008 assumptions, someone would clearly have to be completely given over to the left leaning media spin in favor of Obama to be ready to pronounce this race as over and in the bag for Barack Obama.
 
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