General Presidential Campaign: Trump vs Hillary
- Thread starter mchammer
- Start date
In response to the UN security council picture:
The populists/nationalists winning in France and Germany will be much harder than the US, Brexit or Russia. I will say May in the UK is not a populist. She comes from my english cousins' constituency which is a very wealthy, establishment area. May is an establishment figure trying to pull off a populist policy (Brexit). I will say I think she has done a good job so far. She is absolutely trying to carry Brexit out (which angers the remain group), but is doing so in a careful manner (which angers the leave group). Anyway, last I checked, it seemed Sarkozy was likely to retake the presidency. That was a while ago. @Mr. Deez may have more insight into french politics from his german home. Also, it seems like merkel should go but I am not entirely sure which party would be the favorites in 2017. The Greens? A SPD? A different CDU/CSU politician? One of the others? Pull an Iceland and go pirate party?
The populists/nationalists winning in France and Germany will be much harder than the US, Brexit or Russia. I will say May in the UK is not a populist. She comes from my english cousins' constituency which is a very wealthy, establishment area. May is an establishment figure trying to pull off a populist policy (Brexit). I will say I think she has done a good job so far. She is absolutely trying to carry Brexit out (which angers the remain group), but is doing so in a careful manner (which angers the leave group). Anyway, last I checked, it seemed Sarkozy was likely to retake the presidency. That was a while ago. @Mr. Deez may have more insight into french politics from his german home. Also, it seems like merkel should go but I am not entirely sure which party would be the favorites in 2017. The Greens? A SPD? A different CDU/CSU politician? One of the others? Pull an Iceland and go pirate party?
Sarkozy has actually been slumping of late, and Alain Juppé probably has a better chance now. Of course the populists are excited about Marine Le Pen (National Front), but I think she'll have a hard time, because they have a run-off. I do think she'll make the run-off, but if a center-Right candidate like Juppé is her opponent, I think she'll lose. However, if a pro-Muslim socialist makes the run-off against her (less likely), then she'll have a real shot.
Of course, what will be interesting if she wins is how she handles NATO. The National Front is generally hostile to NATO, but that has been with globalists running it and in the US presidency. Would she be as hostile with a President Trump, whom Le Pen adores? Perhaps not.
The Greens won't command enough support to take over the chancellorship. It's going to be a CDU or SPD leader. However, neither party will have a majority. SPD would enter into a coalition with the Greens to form a government, but that won't enough. They'd need Die Linke (the Communists) to along as well, and for whatever reason, they haven't been able work out such an arrangement.
CDU has lost a lot of support in the last few years, and almost all of it went to AfD. They'll need to rely on a coalition more than ever. The FDP will likely reenter the Bundestag, but they won't have enough votes to put CDU in power. They'll need to either keep their coalition with SPD or form a government with AfD.
I predict that they'll keep working with SPD and add FDP rather than play ball with AfD. If it was as simple as the migrant issue, CDU might make concessions to them just to keep that issue from hurting them. However, AfD is bigger than that issue. They're hardcore Eurosceptics. They'll push to leave the EU, bring back the Deutsche Mark, etc., and of course, they'll demand that Merkel get shitcanned. (In fact, AfD would never join a government led by Merkel.) That'll be way too much for CDU to accept.
So Obama spent time at "BFW halls". Such a man of the people.
I do. Then she would have donated it to the Clinton Foundation.
Seattle Husker
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More overtime? ;-)
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
One thing these protests have done is keep the media from having to examine why Hillary actually lost. Which is probably why Soros is sinking so much money into this operation -- to get this type of introspection off the front pages and off cable news.
It also relieves all of the bad prognosticators from having to deal with their bad prognostications. And their motivations for doing that. Which is too bad, because there was so much wrong.
Here is one of the many folks Trump had to beat from his own side -- whose self-interest was this guy looking after? His own, or the country's?
Wrong in August
Wrong in October
It also relieves all of the bad prognosticators from having to deal with their bad prognostications. And their motivations for doing that. Which is too bad, because there was so much wrong.
Here is one of the many folks Trump had to beat from his own side -- whose self-interest was this guy looking after? His own, or the country's?
Wrong in August
Wrong in October
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