Now it gets awkward.
Whether Urban Meyer ever was a real option for Texas will drive fan site discussions for the foreseeable future, but we may not get any sort of on-the-record confirmation of whether anything actually happened for years.
It took three years for former Texas regent Tom Hicks to spill any beans about approaching agent Jimmy Sexton about Alabama coach Nick Saban in 2012 (a year before Mack Brown was ousted as the Longhorns’ coach). At the moment, both parties seem content to let everyone else talk about Meyer and Texas without Meyer or anyone from Texas acknowledging the other.
What seems clear at the moment is that Meyer is not an option to be the football coach at Texas in 2021, which might offer some comfort to current Texas coach Tom Herman if the Texas administration would acknowledge that Herman will coach the Longhorns in 2021. Athletic director Chris Del Conte has made clear he isn’t offering a definitive opinion on the direction of the football program until after the season. When that happens is a matter of discussion at the moment. Texas was supposed to wrap its regular season against Kansas on Saturday in Lawrence, but the Longhorns have paused football activity because of several COVID-19 positives on the team. The game might get played Saturday. It might get played Dec. 19. If the virus continues to be an issue, it might not get played.
So Del Conte faces a decision. Does he keep a coach the fan base has abandoned? Or does he write checks that could add up to $30 million to make a change that doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything because there is no Meyer, Nick Saban or Dabo Swinney in the candidate pool?
Texas finds itself in a position similar to the one rival Texas A&M faced three years ago. The Aggies fired Kevin Sumlin, whose record at the school made him one of the most successful coaches in the program’s history, and then-AD Scott Woodward had to land what he called a “rare-air” coach. Woodward determined that he needed a coach with a national title on his résumé, which meant one of four names. Meyer, Saban and Clemson’s Swinney weren’t going anywhere, which left Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher as the only option. “In contractual negotiations, you have leverage or you don’t,” Woodward told me for a story I wrote for Sports Illustrated. “I had zero leverage.” So Woodward offered a fully guaranteed, 10-year, $75 million contract and would have gone higher had Fisher not said yes. Woodward knew there was no Plan B.
The similarities between the situations end at the options. The acting coaches with national titles on their résumés are Fisher, LSU’s Ed Orgeron, Saban, Swinney, Kansas’ Les Miles and, of course, Brown. The first four aren’t moving. Miles isn’t getting hired by any program at that level. And Brown would be terribly complicated — plus he seems very happy back at North Carolina. Meyer, with three national titles between Florida and Ohio State on his résumé, apparently is happy behind the Fox Sports desk. This means if Del Conte wants to make a change, he’ll have to take an expensive leap of faith on someone who hasn’t ever reached the heights Texas donors and fans believe the Longhorns should reach. He would have to spend millions and then turn around and sell the coach to those donors and fans. Or he could keep a coach those fans don’t like anymore but who — based on his record so far — might offer a similar chance of success.
Neither situation is ideal, but at some point in the next few weeks, Del Conte will have to choose. And as he considers, he’ll probably also need to consider some of the institutional factors that have helped bring Texas to this point for the third time in seven years. So let’s examine the issues that will influence the decision.
The Coaches
Herman is finishing his fourth season in Austin, and though his tenure has been better than that of predecessor Charlie Strong, it has included only one Big 12 title game appearance. This year’s team had a chance to make the game but lost it when it blew a fourth-quarter lead against Iowa State and fell 23-20 on Nov. 27.
Herman was the toast of Austin following the 2018 season when the Longhorns reached the Big 12 title game and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but the backlash against Herman began last season when the Longhorns went 8-5. Losses to College Football Playoff participants by a combined 14 points were understandable, but the Longhorns also lost to TCU (one of three losses to the Horned Frogs in Herman’s four seasons), Iowa State and Baylor. The Longhorns have a significant advantage in the recruiting rankings against those three teams, but Texas hasn’t been able to translate a raw talent advantage into wins — especially against coaches who have proven player-development track records. TCU’s Gary Patterson, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and former Baylor and current Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule fit that description.
Firing Herman now would require a $15 million payoff because of the extension Del Conte gave Herman after the 2018 season. That figure likely would rise above $20 million when factoring in staff buyouts. And that’s before any buyout payments to a new coach’s old school.
Because we’re trying to figure out if changing coaches is worth the price tag, we probably should compare Herman to coaches who might be in the hunt for the Texas job if it opened. So let’s play the blind résumé game using the factors a coach at a program such as Texas should be judged upon.
Coach 1: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .692, Power 5 conference titles: 1, Median recruiting class rank: 11, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 1 (With at least one getting picked in the first round in 2021.)
Coach 2: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .571, Power 5 conference titles: 0, Median recruiting class rank: 5.5, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 0 (With one possibly going in the first in 2021.)
Coach 3: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .500, Power 5 conference titles: 0, Median recruiting class rank: 52, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 0
Coach 4: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .611, Power 5 conference titles: 1, Median recruiting class rank: 15, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 1 (With one possibly going in the first round in 2021.)
So do any of these stand out above the others? Maybe No. 1? What if I told you he has an $8 million buyout and lost to Oregon State and Cal in the past two weeks? Feel differently? No. 1 is Oregon’s Mario Cristobal, who has proven to be an excellent recruiter and roster builder. The question with Cristobal is whether he can avoid losing games his team should win. This has been one of Texas fans’ biggest gripes with Herman, and given the extremely high price, it could be more vexing if the Longhorns hire a coach who does exactly the same thing that currently infuriates the fan base.
No. 2 is Herman, who will cost $5.8 million next year if Texas retains him. One of the more frustrating facts about this Texas season also could be encouraging depending on your perspective. (Especially if your perspective is to try to save some money.)
Yes, the Longhorns have lost three games. But they’ve lost them by a combined 13 points. Turn either the Oklahoma game or the Iowa State game into a win, and Texas is playing for the Big 12 title. But Herman’s personality has turned off people in the Texas administration and donor base. I always say that it doesn’t matter if people like you if you’re 0-12 (You’re fired!) or 12-0 (You’re getting a raise!), but it matters a great deal if you’re in the — depending on the school — six- to eight-win range. Had Herman been the guy who has admittedly been humbled by this year all along, there might be no conversation. He’d definitely be coming back. But that’s not what happened those first three years, and here we are.
No. 3 is Iowa State’s Campbell. His record should be graded on a curve because he inherited a program that went 8-28 the three seasons before he arrived. His recruiting also should be graded on a curve because Iowa State does not have the access to players that Texas does. But this also would be the only question about Campbell. He has worked at Division III Mount Union, at Bowling Green, at Toledo and at Iowa State. He has never had to swim in the recruiting waters Texas must navigate. That doesn’t mean he can’t; it only means there is no data yet.
The other major issue with Campbell is he might not want the job. He probably isn’t leaving Iowa State unless it’s for a situation he considers ideal. For a guy from the Midwest, that might be Michigan should the Wolverines move on from Jim Harbaugh. Also, don’t be shocked if some NFL teams sniff around Campbell. The qualities that have made him fantastic for Iowa State — great evaluation, development and culture building — are the same ones that allowed Rhule to win at Temple and Baylor. Those qualities travel a lot better between levels of the sport than simply being able to collect five-star recruits. If anyone in college or the NFL wants Campbell, it’ll cost a cool $6 million to Iowa State.
No. 4 is Penn State’s James Franklin. It might be tough for Del Conte to sell a coach who lost his first five games this season and is having a tough recruiting cycle in his own state, but what Franklin has done at Penn State remains remarkable considering the situation he inherited. Plus, he did win nine games twice at Vanderbilt. A fun party game is to try to figure out what other college football coaches could do that. Spoiler alert: It’s a short list. Franklin would be expensive, though. On top of likely commanding a higher salary than Herman makes, it would cost $5 million to leave Penn State now. Plus, he already has a really good job.....