Coronavirus

[Austin_Bill]

Texas needs to test a larger percentage of the state’s population, isolate those who test positive, track down their contacts and order those people to quarantine themselves for two weeks.

Abbott said the tests are coming. And contact tracing is coming. Last I checked, Texas had maybe a thousand contact tracers in place. We need at MINIMUM five times that.

We’ll see.

we have less than 1000 deaths in Texas, it's pretty obvious we haven't been hit with one of the more deadly strands of the virus. There is no reason to not reopen for business. Once we start to see the numbers back on the rise we can go back into quarantine. We can't hide from this all we can do is slowly introduce ourselves to the virus and hope we survive. I can almost guarantee that when the weather cools down there will be a spike in Corona virus infections.

 

[AC]

Fauci almost seems like he is leading the politicization of Corona Virus from the beginning. He called for us to commit economic suicide and he was using the Ferguson Models predicting 2.2 Million deaths in the US. He gets a pass since he is a leading epidemiologist. But he is liberal and donates to the DNC. I don’t get it.

 

[Mr. Deez]

NY is a different beast. High population, port city and mismanaged politics. Have they completely shut down mass transit? No. And they will have more cases, higher death rate and ongoing problems. But to treat the entire US as if we are the same, is stupid. And the death rate is distorted due to the hype and media. If you are compromised, the flu kills you the same way.

To be fair, I don't think he has suggested that we should treat the whole country like New York City.

 

[LongestHorn]

 

[Mr. Deez]

@theiioftx , I know this celebrates masks, but it's ok to laugh at it.

On the flip side, someone commented on this and said, "but if someone farts and you're both wearing pants, you'll still smell it." That is a good point.

 

[Dionysus]

I still find it challenging to do anything but root for the demise of this dude.

Admittedly not one of his better moments.

 

[RainH2burntO]

I used to only do the hook'em with sarcasm. Now it's sincere. That's growth, right? I also think burnt orange is my favorite of the various oranges (OSU traffic cone orange/Tennessee faded orange/Syracuse neon orange). I still find it challenging to do anything but root for the demise of this dude.

Hey....he's growing, too!

 

[RainH2burntO]

I agree that the media has overhyped the issue. And no, I doubt they’ll ever apologize — at least, not en masse. There will be isolated apologies from some journalists, but I don’t expect to see anything from the NYT editorial board, much less WaPo’s.

That said, I don’t think they’ve overhyped nearly to the extent you and others on this board think. Even with aggressive precautions, the pandemic has killed 0.13% of the population of NY State and it will probably top out at around 0.2%. With lesser precautions, it would’ve been higher, and even more so with no precautions. There’s no way to know what the mortality rate might’ve been. Maybe .3% or .5% or 1%. I doubt there was ever a risk of it being higher than that, but who knows.

Also, with extreme precautions, we’ve managed to contain the national spread pretty effectively. With fewer precautions, would the rest of the country look more like NY? Half as bad? That’s hard to say, but it’s reasonably plausible that the national mortality rate might’ve been at or above 0.5%. That’s 1.6 million people — nothing to sneeze at.

I appreciate your reasonable approach to this. Wish dialogue were such with more who disagree. I've always blamed the left for the vitriol, vile "discourse" in our country and it troubles me greatly. People like you (and Bubba) give me hope...
....nah; but I still appreciate it!

 

[RainH2burntO]

One of the most fascinating, but not surprising, aspects of this whole thing is the stark contrast between reactions/responses in liberal-leaning/led vs conservative leaning/led areas...and don't think it was all consistent, either. Some things were...some weren't. For instance, Seattle is very liberal but seems to have had good success with response while other liberal states really came off looking....something...idk...silly?
There were other metropolitan areas that fared way better than NY so you have to look critically there when this is over, densely populated or not. Something strange in the air there. Some have said God's judgement for the recent abortion laws....IdK, but it just fascinates me to see the difference in reactions from various people-types....broke starkly along political, religious, education (not what you think) and many other lines in dramatic fashion and really highlighted our differences (greater than ever) as a society.
Will make fascinating research when dust settles.
Saddens me to see younger generation (and other people groups) scared by and overly-influenced by the hyperbole of a media they claim to distrust. (Strange irony)
On another note, I read a great article in Epoch Times (I highly recommend this publication) on how countries who did not institute lockdowns (Sweden, S Korea, Japan and others) seem to have gotten through this faster and in better shape (with herd immunity achieved?) than those who did, though more information and time/research is needed. And, more and more info shows countries and areas who were able to put aside political differences (Germany, Australia, Sweden etc) fared much better. No surprise there. I'd say I have hope we could try that here but one "side" isn't interested.

 

[OUBubba]

You seem to be admitting the hysteria for more ventilators was unfounded and made for purely political-gotcha reasons. Is this really what you mean to be confessing about your own people?

You prepare for a range of scenarios. Worst case scenarios typically don't happen but you try to prepare for them, right?

 

[RainH2burntO]

Two things about this:
1. Amazing how consistent the daily uptick is (roughly 2.5kavg)
2. The presentation is very misleading as it might make one think they are seeing deaths per day (ever-increasing) rather than a running total culminating in 62k currently.
Interesting nonetheless. Thanks for posting.

 

[Phil Elliott]

With lesser precautions, it would’ve been higher, and even more so with no precautions.

You don't know that. Nobody does.

 

[Austin_Bill]

I would consider those numbers relevant if they were real, however it seems every time someone dies now they are counting it as a Kung Flu death.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

I would consider those numbers relevant if they were real, however it seems every time someone dies now they are counting it as a Kung Flu death.

Rumor has it that the CDC has lowered the deaths by Covid acknowledging misstated cases. Not sure if it's true but it's floating around out there.

 

[NJlonghorn]

I appreciate your reasonable approach to this. Wish dialogue were such with more who disagree. I've always blamed the left for the vitriol, vile "discourse" in our country and it troubles me greatly. People like you (and Bubba) give me hope...
....nah; but I still appreciate it!

Thanks, I guess!

For what it's worth, I don't blame the left any more than the right for the vile discourse. In many places, including on this board, the vileness is driven mostly by the right. In other places, it is driven mostly by the left.

The problem, imnsho, is the increasing number of extremists on both sides. They tend to be the vile ones, and they are everywhere these days. And yes, that includes top politicians on both sides of the aisle.

This is exacerbated by confirmation bias. People with right-leaning opinions are more sensitive to offensive discourse from the left, and thus blame the uncivil atmosphere on the left. People with left-leaning opinions are more sensitive to offensive discourse from the right, and thus blame the uncivil atmosphere on the right. The shrinking number of us in the middle just shake our heads and cry.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I appreciate your reasonable approach to this. Wish dialogue were such with more who disagree. I've always blamed the left for the vitriol, vile "discourse" in our country and it troubles me greatly. People like you (and Bubba) give me hope...
....nah; but I still appreciate it!

The reality is that neither of them are hardcore leftists. I don't view NJ as partisan at all. Bubba is a bit of a partisan hack, and as a Sooner, he's sorta the retarded adult at the kiddie table. Both are decent guys.

 

[Monahorns]

Neil Ferguson is the real villian in this whole thing. Also, anyone else who used his model at the beginning to determine policy. Hadn't he already used a model that way over estimated deaths from another disease? Need to put that guy on the shelf and leave him there.

 

[RainH2burntO]

Thanks, I guess!

For what it's worth, I don't blame the left any more than the right for the vile discourse. In many places, including on this board, the vileness is driven mostly by the right. In other places, it is driven mostly by the left.

The problem, imnsho, is the increasing number of extremists on both sides. They tend to be the vile ones, and they are everywhere these days. And yes, that includes top politicians on both sides of the aisle.

This is exacerbated by confirmation bias. People with right-leaning opinions are more sensitive to offensive discourse from the left, and thus blame the uncivil atmosphere on the left. People with left-leaning opinions are more sensitive to offensive discourse from the right, and thus blame the uncivil atmosphere on the right. The shrinking number of us in the middle just shake our heads and cry.

I like your sentiment and realize there are loud-mouth and even vile fringe people on the right, too. But I am firm in my belief that there is a hatred, an agenda, an end game that persists on the left and a more pervasive lack of moral (and intellectual and spiritual) guidance that creates an unsettling and distrusting dynamic that bears much greater responsibility. Confirmation bias is something that comes up alot these days but, while a real thing, this is not something one cannot stretch and grow beyond or combat. It is a matter of integrity and desire for truth as opposed to a desire for what one wants to be true, and is not out of the reach of man, depending on motive. Furthermore, a focus on confirmation bias ignores the reality of and pursuit of truth. We arent talking subjective values or beliefs here. We are talking about what is actually true....discovering the truth.
My parents were Democrats and I was a young Democrat until I learned more about the influences on and direction of the modern day party and gained the discernment to see what they represent and where it is taking our country. To discuss this issue on an everyday, neutral, oh, gee, everyone has a subjectively biased view is tragically naive to what the modern day democrat/liberal/progressive movement is really about and the ultimate end game. Believe me now or believe me later.

 

[NJlonghorn]

NY is a different beast. High population, port city and mismanaged politics. Have they completely shut down mass transit? No. And they will have more cases, higher death rate and ongoing problems. But to treat the entire US as if we are the same, is stupid. And the death rate is distorted due to the hype and media. If you are compromised, the flu kills you the same way.

You are equating NY State with NY City, something I've been careful to avoid doing. I didn't suggest that, without precautions, the country as a whole might've ended up looking like NYC. Instead, I suggested the possibility that the country as a whole might end up "half as bad" as NY State. By the very nature of the exercise I had to guesstimate the numbers, and I was very open about the fact that I was doing so.

For a more appropriate comparison, you have to look at smaller areas than an entire state. I don't have the resources to do a detailed county-by-county comparison, but I did take some time to look at a few NY counties to create a frame of reference.

Start with the 5 boroughs / counties that make up NYC. The mortality rate there (with full precautions) is already over 0.2%. It will probably cap out pretty close to 0.3%. You are right that there is no county in TX that aptly compares to NYC.

Next, slide out to an adjacent county -- Westchester County, NY. This is considered a suburb in New York, but its pretty urban by most standards. By way of comparison, its population density is 2,250 ppl/sq mile, which is sandwiched between to the densities of Harris and Tarrant Counties (significantly lower than Dallas County). The mortality rate in Westchester County is 0.12% (12 deaths per 100,000 residents). It is on pace to cap out pretty somewhere around 0.15%.

Further out is Orange County, an outer NYC suburb. By way of comparison, its population density of 471 ppl/sq mile is roughly equal to the density of Montgomery County, TX. The mortality rate there is 0.06%, which is 60 deaths per 100,000 residents, and is on pace to top out around .1% (100 deaths per 100,000 residents).

Then there's Columbia County, NY. Its population density is 99 ppl/sq mile, roughly as dense as Hunt County, TX and Victoria County, TX. The mortality rate there is 0.026% (26 deaths per 100,000 residents).

Most people (apparently, @Phil Elliott excepted) agree that with lesser or no precautions, these rates would've been higher and the disease would've reached further geographically. Nobody knows how much higher or further -- that is inherently guesswork. But any reasonable person looking at the above data would concede that a US mortality rate of 0.5% or higher would've been within the range of reasonable possibility. That is all that I claimed.

 

[OUBubba]

You don't know that. Nobody does.

The scientists said that if we would have acted 2 weeks quicker we would have eliminated 90% of the casualties.

 

[Joe Fan]

You prepare for a range of scenarios. Worst case scenarios typically don't happen but you try to prepare for them, right?

None of which is helped by hysteria and gotcha politics

 

[Garmel]

The scientists said that if we would have acted 2 weeks quicker we would have eliminated 90% of the casualties.

The scientists on Trump's team weren't saying that at the time though. However, hindsight is 20/20.

 

[theiioftx]

@theiioftx , I know this celebrates masks, but it's ok to laugh at it.

On the flip side, someone commented on this and said, "but if someone farts and you're both wearing pants, you'll still smell it." That is a good point.

I’ve decided to wear two masks - one backwards and one forward - so everyone is protected.

 

[horninchicago]

Fauci almost seems like he is leading the politicization of Corona Virus from the beginning. He called for us to commit economic suicide and he was using the Ferguson Models predicting 2.2 Million deaths in the US. He gets a pass since he is a leading epidemiologist. But he is liberal and donates to the DNC. I don’t get it.

Sounds like you do get it.

 

[OUBubba]

The scientists on Trump's team weren't saying that at the time though. However, hindsight is 20/20.

We could just use two weeks from the intelligence briefing where they all dumped their stocks?!? Which would have given us about 4 weeks of wiggle room to "act".

 

[horninchicago]

I appreciate your reasonable approach to this. Wish dialogue were such with more who disagree. I've always blamed the left for the vitriol, vile "discourse" in our country and it troubles me greatly. People like you (and Bubba) give me hope...
....nah; but I still appreciate it!

Naaaaaahhhhhh......

 

[Austin_Bill]

The scientists said that if we would have acted 2 weeks quicker we would have eliminated 90% of the casualties.

Then why did your party fight Trump so much early in this? I would say that the blood of 90% of the victims rests on Pelosi's head with the rest of the DNC.

 

[Monahorns]

Most people (apparently, @Phil Elliott excepted) agree that with lesser or no precautions, these rates would've been higher and the disease would've reached further geographically.

To defend Phil a bit, I think his point is that Sweden, SK, and Japan didn't lock down and they didn't have high death rates. So there are some complicating factors. It isn't simply open/free=massive death or lockdown=acceptable level of death.

At the sametime, common sense says that if there is a virus, limiting contact with others and therefore the virus will slow down spread and decrease death over a period of time. What we don't know is if lockdowns reduce the overall number of deaths or just lengthen the time of the spread. Some epidemiologists say that the virus will spread, without herd immunity, to the same degree regardless of the precautions taken. Maybe, maybe not. But the statement does high light just how complicated this all is.

 

[WorsterMan]

Damn I need a haircut

You sure do! I can see it all the way from my home office.

 

[OUBubba]

Then why did your party fight Trump so much early in this? I would say that the blood of 90% of the victims rests on Pelosi's head with the rest of the DNC.

Please show me where they fought him on getting testing out. They maybe weren't on board like Fauci but they also didn't call it a hoax.