Coronavirus

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

Yes. It’s an average of all states. But Michigan has a very different RO than Kansas, doesn’t it? But thank you for addressing the science.

Then keep the area's with a high RO under restrictions and let the rest of the country get back to work.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Hell, I think it's a good idea to lock away the denizens of New York City pretty much permanently, virus or no virus.

 

[RainH2burntO]

I've not looked it up in a while. It was 2.5 or so to start out with but blossomed to 5 or 6 in Italy and NY. I'm not trying to ************ anyone. If it's under 1 then, by all means, let's light this candle.

OuBubba
I want to again commend you for the calm, kind, and level-headed approach you take to posting on HF. Bet you're a real good dude. Appreciate your tone always and wish it would rub off on the rest of this country, but, alas...too much is at stake and some people won't "fight" fair.
Kudos, nonetheless.
Now, I have to go to the recruiting forum and celebrate our latest commit!

 

[theiioftx]

Update and more info on my friend's 80 year old MIL in Spain. After 10 days in the ICU, doctors told her family they were putting her on a vent, but did not expect her to live much longer. He gave the family a contact to purchase Remdesivir. They purchased it and the doctor injected her. Two hours later, she started recovering and got better over four days. Now back at home ten days later and doing fine. Gilead might be a good stock to buy.

 

[Monahorns]

Yes. It’s an average of all states. But Michigan has a very different RO than Kansas, doesn’t it? But thank you for addressing the science.

I agree. If I see the R0 for individual States I will post that too.

 

[LongestHorn]

I agree. If I see the R0 for individual States I will post that too.

On the spectrum, MI has the lowest, CA is avg, and Kansas is at high end.

 

[Mr. Deez]

 

[Dionysus]

Damn I need a haircut

 

[NJlonghorn]

Whatever happened to the ventilator shortage the lefties were screaming about not long ago?

I know you are looking for a gotcha, not an actual answer. But what the hell...

Typically, doctors use ventilators to temporarily help patients breathe when blood-oxygen levels fall. Because COVID-19 causes blood-oxygen levels to fall, the initial treatment protocol was to put the patient on a ventilator. This made sense, and suggested a need for a large number of ventilators. But doctors quickly learned that ventilators tend to damage coronavirus patients' lungs, resulting in even more deaths. Thus, the current protocol is to hold off on putting patients on a ventilator until absolutely necessary, i.e. on the verge of dying. With fewer patients being put on ventilators, and fewer ventilated patients surviving for long on them, the need for ventilators is much lower than expected.

Here are a few links discussing this. I'm sure my explanation isn't quite right, but I think it captures the gist of what these articles say.

Are ventilators being overused on COVID-19 patients? | Live Science

Ventilators are overused for Covid-19 patients, doctors say - STAT

Why Ventilators May Not Be Working Well for COVID-19 Patients

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

 

[WorsterMan]

Of course you would be cowering along with the numpties who worry about almost 900 deaths across the next four months. Never mind that more people than that will die just from things like car accidents and, quite probably, murder.

Only fools would be concerned over a number that more than doubles in four months what has occurred in six weeks while the economy was being killed.

Plus huge increases from suicides, drug overdose & alcohol related deaths, child & spousal abuse or murders, etc. resulting from depression and or massive unemployment.

 

[OUBubba]

OuBubba
I want to again commend you for the calm, kind, and level-headed approach you take to posting on HF. Bet you're a real good dude. Appreciate your tone always and wish it would rub off on the rest of this country, but, alas...too much is at stake and some people won't "fight" fair.
Kudos, nonetheless.
Now, I have to go to the recruiting forum and celebrate our latest commit!

Bless you child. I think everyone should have to represent the devil in absentia. It makes you much tougher. And, I'm repping two devils: Switzer and Democrats!

 

[horninchicago]

Like J.R. Ewing. We love to hate you. Or is it hate to love you?

 

[OUBubba]

Like J.R. Ewing. We love to hate you. Or is it hate to love you?

I used to only do the hook'em with sarcasm. Now it's sincere. That's growth, right? I also think burnt orange is my favorite of the various oranges (OSU traffic cone orange/Tennessee faded orange/Syracuse neon orange). I still find it challenging to do anything but root for the demise of this dude.

 

[NJlonghorn]

Hide yo kids, hide yo wife

Here's more detail on these stories. link

The details are pretty murky, but from what I can tell:

• each of these seven guys was originally convicted for sex crimes, and some were also convicted of other charges (drugs, resisting arrest, etc.)
• each of them served the custodial part of their sentence, and was previously released on parole
• none of them were caught committing other crimes while out on parole (I'm assuming this, but it seems like a detail that would've been included in the article if it had happened)
• each of them violated the terms of their parole (most by failing to check in or failing to charge their monitoring device, but one for cutting off his monitoring device)
• each of them was re-incarcerated for the parole violation.

I'd need to know more about these cases to form an opinion. I'm just sharing the additional information so you guys aren't mislead into thinking sex offenders were being released without serving their original custodial sentence.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Here's more detail on these stories. link

The details are pretty murky, but from what I can tell:

• each of these seven guys was originally convicted for sex crimes, and some were also convicted of other charges (drugs, resisting arrest, etc.)
• each of them served the custodial part of their sentence, and was previously released on parole
• none of them were caught committing other crimes while out on parole (I'm assuming this, but it seems like a detail that would've been included in the article if it had happened)
• each of them violated the terms of their parole (most by failing to check in or failing to charge their monitoring device, but one for cutting off his monitoring device)
• each of them was re-incarcerated for the parole violation.

I'd need to know more about these cases to form an opinion. I'm just sharing the additional information so you guys aren't mislead into thinking sex offenders were being released without serving their original custodial sentence.

Were they also given 20 or 30 doses of Viagra upon their release? Did the article mention anything about that?

 

[Horn6721]

NJ
?
So they thought they might need thousands of vents but it turned out they didn't? So should we have rushed to make a many as we did?

 

[theiioftx]

I know you are looking for a gotcha, not an actual answer. But what the hell...

Typically, doctors use ventilators to temporarily help patients breathe when blood-oxygen levels fall. Because COVID-19 causes blood-oxygen levels to fall, the initial treatment protocol was to put the patient on a ventilator. This made sense, and suggested a need for a large number of ventilators. But doctors quickly learned that ventilators tend to damage coronavirus patients' lungs, resulting in even more deaths. Thus, the current protocol is to hold off on putting patients on a ventilator until absolutely necessary, i.e. on the verge of dying. With fewer patients being put on ventilators, and fewer ventilated patients surviving for long on them, the need for ventilators is much lower than expected.

Here are a few links discussing this. I'm sure my explanation isn't quite right, but I think it captures the gist of what these articles say.

Are ventilators being overused on COVID-19 patients? | Live Science

Ventilators are overused for Covid-19 patients, doctors say - STAT

Why Ventilators May Not Be Working Well for COVID-19 Patients

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Interesting information. I’ve also seen this at one of my facilities.

This pandemic has been full of incorrect information, projections and decisions. Hopefully all health organizations will learn from this and the news media will self correct the hysteria they have peddled.

 

[Joe Fan]

....Hopefully ... the news media will self correct the hysteria they have peddled.

What are the odds of that?

 

[Joe Fan]

Here's more detail on these stories. link

The details are pretty murky, but from what I can tell:

• each of these seven guys was originally convicted for sex crimes, and some were also convicted of other charges (drugs, resisting arrest, etc.)
• each of them served the custodial part of their sentence, and was previously released on parole
• none of them were caught committing other crimes while out on parole (I'm assuming this, but it seems like a detail that would've been included in the article if it had happened)
• each of them violated the terms of their parole (most by failing to check in or failing to charge their monitoring device, but one for cutting off his monitoring device)
• each of them was re-incarcerated for the parole violation.

I'd need to know more about these cases to form an opinion. I'm just sharing the additional information so you guys aren't mislead into thinking sex offenders were being released without serving their original custodial sentence.

Do you live in a gated community? Or maybe a high rise with 24hr security?
In my experience, it is often the case that public policy is set by people the policies have no meaningful personal effect on. As, for example, we often see with the US Congress.

 

[Joe Fan]

I know you are looking for a gotcha, not an actual answer. But what the hell...

Typically, doctors use ventilators to temporarily help patients breathe when blood-oxygen levels fall. Because COVID-19 causes blood-oxygen levels to fall, the initial treatment protocol was to put the patient on a ventilator. This made sense, and suggested a need for a large number of ventilators. But doctors quickly learned that ventilators tend to damage coronavirus patients' lungs, resulting in even more deaths. Thus, the current protocol is to hold off on putting patients on a ventilator until absolutely necessary, i.e. on the verge of dying. With fewer patients being put on ventilators, and fewer ventilated patients surviving for long on them, the need for ventilators is much lower than expected.

Here are a few links discussing this. I'm sure my explanation isn't quite right, but I think it captures the gist of what these articles say.

Are ventilators being overused on COVID-19 patients? | Live Science

Ventilators are overused for Covid-19 patients, doctors say - STAT

Why Ventilators May Not Be Working Well for COVID-19 Patients

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

You seem to be admitting the hysteria for more ventilators was unfounded and made for purely political-gotcha reasons. Is this really what you mean to be confessing about your own people?

 

[NJlonghorn]

NJ
?
So they thought they might need thousands of vents but it turned out they didn't? So should we have rushed to make a many as we did?

In hindsight, no.

Knowing what was known then, it’s debatable.

 

[horninchicago]

Anyone else around here listen to Sirius XM radio?

 

[NJlonghorn]

You seem to be admitting the hysteria for more ventilators was unfounded and made for purely political-gotcha reasons. Is this really what you mean to be confessing about your own people?

Oh, I think I get it now. I was overlooking the fact that every time a statement later proves to be unfounded, it was ipso facto made for political-gotcha reasons. I shouldn’t be wasting my time analyzing whether the statement was reasonable at the time.

 

[Joe Fan]

Oh, I think I get it now. I was overlooking the fact that every time a statement later proves to be unfounded, it was ipso facto made for political-gotcha reasons. ..

You cant have it both ways. Make up your mind and stick with it
Be consistent about something

 

[NJlonghorn]

Interesting information. I’ve also seen this at one of my facilities.

This pandemic has been full of incorrect information, projections and decisions. Hopefully all health organizations will learn from this and the news media will self correct the hysteria they have peddled.

I agree that the media has overhyped the issue. And no, I doubt they’ll ever apologize — at least, not en masse. There will be isolated apologies from some journalists, but I don’t expect to see anything from the NYT editorial board, much less WaPo’s.

That said, I don’t think they’ve overhyped nearly to the extent you and others on this board think. Even with aggressive precautions, the pandemic has killed 0.13% of the population of NY State and it will probably top out at around 0.2%. With lesser precautions, it would’ve been higher, and even more so with no precautions. There’s no way to know what the mortality rate might’ve been. Maybe .3% or .5% or 1%. I doubt there was ever a risk of it being higher than that, but who knows.

Also, with extreme precautions, we’ve managed to contain the national spread pretty effectively. With fewer precautions, would the rest of the country look more like NY? Half as bad? That’s hard to say, but it’s reasonably plausible that the national mortality rate might’ve been at or above 0.5%. That’s 1.6 million people — nothing to sneeze at.

 

[NJlonghorn]

By the way, I learned three terms today that should help clarify discussions. They are:

• Mortality Rate. Percentage of an overall population that dies from a disease.
  
• Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Percentage of infected individuals who die from a disease.
• Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Percentage of diagnosed individuals who die from a disease.

Each of these categories can be broken down any number of ways — by age, race, comorbidity, etc. CFR can also be broken down by the stage to which a disease has progressed.

At the end of the day, I would submit that Mortality Rate is by far the most important of these three numbers. IFR and CFR are just useful tools (if used properly) to project a Mortality Rate.

 

[theiioftx]

What are the odds of that?

I’m giving it from 0% and the actual death rate of Covid 19.

 

[theiioftx]

I agree that the media has overhyped the issue. And no, I doubt they’ll ever apologize — at least, not en masse. There will be isolated apologies from some journalists, but I don’t expect to see anything from the NYT editorial board, much less WaPo’s.

That said, I don’t think they’ve overhyped nearly to the extent you and others on this board think. Even with aggressive precautions, the pandemic has killed 0.13% of the population of NY State and it will probably top out at around 0.2%. With lesser precautions, it would’ve been higher, and even more so with no precautions. There’s no way to know what the mortality rate might’ve been. Maybe .3% or .5% or 1%. I doubt there was ever a risk of it being higher than that, but who knows.

Also, with extreme precautions, we’ve managed to contain the national spread pretty effectively. With fewer precautions, would the rest of the country look more like NY? Half as bad? That’s hard to say, but it’s reasonably plausible that the national mortality rate might’ve been at or above 0.5%. That’s 1.6 million people — nothing to sneeze at.

NY is a different beast. High population, port city and mismanaged politics. Have they completely shut down mass transit? No. And they will have more cases, higher death rate and ongoing problems. But to treat the entire US as if we are the same, is stupid. And the death rate is distorted due to the hype and media. If you are compromised, the flu kills you the same way.

 

[Chop]

Any medical types out there care to opine on whether having a pneumonia vaccine gives you any sort of advantage in surviving the Coronavirus?

My (non-medical professional) understanding and reasoning is that the people who are infected with the Coronavirus and go South often get pneumonia and then die. So maybe having a pneumonia vaccine might break that chain, at least in some portion of the cases. Couldn’t hurt.

 

[Austin_Bill]

Texans are buying food right now. Is that taxed? How much oil revenue is Texas going to lose?

I can tell you as a real estate appraiser I've never been busier. So that tells me a lot of people are still buying houses. Keep in mind, once someone signs a purchase contract I'm contacted to do an appraisal. So basically these contracts are all done in April.