Coronavirus

There are some huge differences between this one and others.

1. Asymptomatic carriers are significant. Maybe as many as 60%. The R0 of this thing was thought to be about 2.0 but it's looking like it's closer to 5 or 6.
2. This virus is mutating pretty fast.
3. It started in China and we still don't know the details of how, when, etc. When we tackled H1N1 the virus started in the US and we had test kits going out of CDC within 16 days.
 
Driver 8 said:
It seems aggressive only if we accept that shelter-in-place was an essential action to begin with
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Meaning it's not aggressive if we accept that shelter-in-place had a limited shelf-life and there is no need for a transition because we need to get on with it and shelter-in-place did it's job (stabilized our medical facility overload) and we're willing to accept infection/death rates now because 1) We can manage it in our hospitals along with other diseases/injuries and 2) our economy is now more important than forcing the curve downward (instead of just flattening it)?
 
Driver 8 said:
It seems aggressive only if we accept that shelter-in-place was an essential action to begin with
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A lot of the shelter in place logic was based on hospital access and trying to keep the health system from being over loaded. NYC had times fewer ICU beds per capita than Tulsa. So, some regions needed more cushion than others.

We can now test people at will but we have limited PPE to do so. It's a real hot mess.
 
From where I sit, Amazon is a God-send. Anybody want to comment on how an AOC can gain so much power through hatred of the rich to the point where Amazon pulled their plans to locate in her area versus the company that is enabling us to survive at home while she DOES NOTHING BUT SPEW LIBERAL TALKING POINTS AND COMMUNISM? Yes, communism. That's where I'm placing her.

It's unbelievable. She's a hero to so many emotionally impaired people. Meanwhile she accomplishes nothing but divide us further.

I don't care for people who prey on bitterness.
 
Bubba
"When we tackled H1N1 the virus started in the US "
Did it start here?
I know it was detected here first but does that necessarily mean it started in USA?
 
OUBubba said:
There are some huge differences between this one and others.

1. Asymptomatic carriers are significant. Maybe as many as 60%. The R0 of this thing was thought to be about 2.0 but it's looking like it's closer to 5 or 6.
2. This virus is mutating pretty fast.
3. It started in China and we still don't know the details of how, when, etc. When we tackled H1N1 the virus started in the US and we had test kits going out of CDC within 16 days.
Click to expand...
FWIW, I'm not a DR, but the one thing that continues to stand out to me is how can a virus be so harmless to so many yet so deadly to others? Has there ever been a virus in history that's had such a wide spread of toxicity? Or maybe the deaths could be significantly over reported?
 
Horn6721 said:
Bubba
"When we tackled H1N1 the virus started in the US "
Did it start here?
I know it was detected here first but does that necessarily mean it started in USA?
Click to expand...
It started with pigs in Mexico. The first human where it was detected was in the US in California. I'm unclear on how it got from A to B. I assume it came via a human transporting it. Others may have had it, but the American was the first place it was documented.
 
Run Pincher said:
FWIW, I'm not a DR, but the one thing that continues to stand out to me is how can a virus be so harmless to so many yet so deadly to others? Has there ever been a virus in history that's had such a wide spread of toxicity? Or maybe the deaths could be significantly over reported?
Click to expand...
It's weird. If you look at trends over the last 5 years worldwide deaths are up 60% this year.
 
The whole reason we are reopening is because we know now that the Hospital system can handle a second wave of patients. We went on lock down to keep from over whelming the hospital system. Once it opens up we will have a steady flow of people getting sick but he hospital system will be better equipped to handle it. We aren't going to hide until the big scary virus is over. It doesn't work that way, we have to face it and hope the hospitals can save us if it comes to that.
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AustinBill, I will add that if the hospital system does become overwhelmed that is on them. It is time to open up a bit. We have given hospitals time to get ready. They better be ready or there will be hell to pay. And if they can't get ready because of government regulation, then they should have been shouting about it 4 weeks ago. All Certificate of Need laws should be abolished, any regulations restricting production and distribution of resources should be abolished, and potential medications like hydoxyquine and remdesivir should be allowed to be used as decided by the patient under consultation of their doctor. We should throw everything we have and managing the spread of this virus, but regardless the virus will spread but to start living now than waiting for some miracle.
 
LongestHorn said:
The projected death toll now stands at 1,657 through August -- almost doubling since last week.
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Of course you would be cowering along with the numpties who worry about almost 900 deaths across the next four months. Never mind that more people than that will die just from things like car accidents and, quite probably, murder.

Only fools would be concerned over a number that more than doubles in four months what has occurred in six weeks while the economy was being killed.
 
The tracing is never going to work. The physical process of tracing contacts of hundreds of thousands of people is too slow and imprecise, and even if you could trace the contacts timely and "order" those people to quarantine, you can't stand guard to make sure they stay quarantined. At this point, the testing and tracing idea is useless.
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We should try though, right? I don't know about forcing quarantine to contacts, but they should be informed and then tested.
 
Haven't been over here in awhile....figured this one was just too easy and all liberal-minded posters would have been set straight by now.
Seems conservatives who were being ridiculed by liberals just a week or so ago are looking better and better with each passing day in analysis of the CCP virus.
Things could change....but, for now...most of what those taking a conservative (ironic labeling considering) approach were believing, saying, and acting on is proving out. What's that old Reagan quote?
"It's not that our liberal friends are dumb its just that they "know" so much that isn't true."
 
1. Asymptomatic carriers are significant. Maybe as many as 60%. The R0 of this thing was thought to be about 2.0 but it's looking like it's closer to 5 or 6.
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Bubba, cut the ********. Calculated R0 for the world is at 1.07. The new spikes are from places that are just starting to see outbreaks now, like Russia and Latin America.

EWzzYv2WoAALwke
 
Monahorns said:
We should try though, right? I don't know about forcing quarantine to contacts, but they should be informed and then tested.
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No, because it doesn't matter. Like Communism, this sounds good on paper, but in reality it doesn't work. You would literally have to test everybody that came in contact with anybody everyday.
 
Monahorns said:
LH, did you know that R0=0.87 for the US as of today?
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If that is true then based on this definition the virus is dying out.

Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:

  • If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
  • If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
  • If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.
Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:

  • no one has been vaccinated
  • no one has had the disease before
  • there’s no way to control the spread of the disease
 
Monahorns said:
Bubba, cut the ********. Calculated R0 for the world is at 1.07. The new spikes are from places that are just starting to see outbreaks now, like Russia and Latin America.

EWzzYv2WoAALwke
Click to expand...
I've not looked it up in a while. It was 2.5 or so to start out with but blossomed to 5 or 6 in Italy and NY. I'm not trying to ************ anyone. If it's under 1 then, by all means, let's light this candle.
 
I head on a conference call yesterday that ambient heat and humidity had a good impact when it got to the mid 80's. Southern India is doing much better than Northern India. We were looking for the heat to knock it down but we were thinking 70's not mid 80's.
 
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