Coronavirus

[Horns11]

So, roughly 20 million people get the flu each year. It looks like, unfettered, (80% of 335,000,000) about 270,000,000 would have gotten this. With a 0.05% death rate that would be 1,340,000...Please check my Sooner math.

Also, hospital overload notwithstanding on this estimate.

The flu numbers for 2019-20 has a death range of 24K to 62K, according to the CDC. That's the numerator. Assuming the 0.05% death rate, that means there were anywhere from 48MM to 124MM cases. CDC said it was 39MM to 56MM this year, with 18MM to 26MM actually going to a doctor for it. So the actual deaths are either much closer to the 24K estimate, or the rate is actually a little higher than 0.05% (CDC says it's between 0.04% and 0.15%, for good measure, so it's probably between those and around 0.095%).

I guess we could see those "unfettered" studies for Covid pop up in the future, but I doubt we'll ever get a decent range.

 

[Driver 8]

Decimals will be introduced in the 2024 Oklahoma public school curriculum

 

[OUBubba]

Decimals will be introduced in the 2024 Oklahoma public school curriculum

Will we have to import some Texans to teach this?

 

[Garmel]

Decimals will be introduced in the 2024 Oklahoma public school curriculum

It will officially replace Bubba Math by early 2026.

 

[RainH2burntO]

What makes no sense is that some of our more liberal-minded friends want it both ways. On the one hand....they seek to undervalue the number of those who have it but are asymptomatic, thus increasing the mortality rate; but, on the other hand, they fear protesters may be fine, but the real risk is they will unknowingly spread it without symptoms themselves.
Hhhmm.....
So, not that many people have it and are asymptomatic and we should rely on the data% of those tested but, when conservative protesters are involved, we really need to be concerned about all the people who may unknowingly spread this?
Current estimates indicate, when all is said and done a likely mortality rate is between .5-.7% - even according to fairly liberal Stanford study just released currently making news (which California liberals are attacking them for - liberal on liberal crime is the best!).
Furthermore, I know of two people who lost loved ones due to other illnesses and tested negative for CCP virus but were pressured by medical facility to sign that cause of death was covid. These are just two I personally know of....It appears there are many reports of this or similar nature out there that are being supressed.

 

[mchammer]

Low of 35 F tonight in NYC. 5 out of Top 6 states
are northern states. Connecticut about to pass Texas in total cases.

 

[Austin_Bill]

"Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience: Massive Scale Testing, Tracing, and Supported Isolation (TTSI) as the Path to Pandemic Resilience for a Free Society," lays out how a massive scale-up of testing, paired with contact tracing and supported isolation, can rebuild trust in our personal safety and re-mobilize the U.S. economy.

Among the report’s top recommendations is the need to deliver at least 5 million tests per day by early June to help ensure a safe social opening. This number will need to increase to 20 million tests per day by mid-summer to fully re-mobilize the economy.

You can also find the report and related material at the Pandemic Resilience Roadmap website, www.pandemictesting.org.

What a stupid f'ing read that was. Simply put it fails the common sense test as do most Leftest thoughts. History has seen this crap before, 1932 Germany.

Now History is repeating itself with our so-called intellectuals. Instead of a country following a single mad man, we have half a country following a whole party of mad men and women seeking to overthrow this country with their fake news and real tyranny.

 

[Horns11]

What a stupid f'ing read that was. Simply put it fails the common sense test as do most Leftest thoughts. History has seen this crap before, 1932 Germany.

Now History is repeating itself with our so-called intellectuals. Instead of a country following a single mad man, we have half a country following a whole party of mad men and women seeking to overthrow this country with their fake news and real tyranny.

I'm at a loss for what you think was stupid or lacking common sense in the study. It's basically South Korea's roadmap with some contingencies for socioeconomic things that make us American.

 

[Austin_Bill]

I'm at a loss for what you think was stupid or lacking common sense in the study. It's basically South Korea's roadmap with some contingencies for socioeconomic things that make us American.

Reminds me of the story of the plague where a kingdom erected high walls and all the aristocrats tried to hide from the Black Death by keeping all the poor people out thinking that would save them. When the doors were opened they were all dead because they didn't understand how the virus worked.

This is no different, you can't hide from this, there is no telling if/when a vaccine will happen, in fact, if it mutates and the media is now saying it does, then there will never be a vaccine.

The key to beating this is herd immunity, let the strong get it and build up their own immunity to it. Those of us who are not strong should hold up and wait to see if a vaccine can save us, but there is no need to destroy our world to try and save the weak. This world belongs to the young and strong, not the old and weak.

 

[Monahorns]

Assuming the 0.05% death rate, that means there were anywhere from 48MM to 124MM cases. CDC said it was 39MM to 56MM this year, with 18MM to 26MM actually going to a doctor for it.

Once again Horns11, you are showing your undestanding of the numbers to be off. It also shows the estimates I am talking about to agree with each other.

In this case, the widely accepted death rate of flu is 0.14%, which puts the estimated cases right within the CDC's range.

 

[OUBubba]

Furthermore, I know of two people who lost loved ones due to other illnesses and tested negative for CCP virus but were pressured by medical facility to sign that cause of death was covid. These are just two I personally know of....

So family members assign the cause of death? Does that happen anywhere?

 

[Horns11]

Once again Horns11, you are showing your undestanding of the numbers to be off. It also shows the estimates I am talking about to agree with each other.

In this case, the widely accepted death rate of flu is 0.14%, which puts the estimated cases right within the CDC's range.

And you're confirming that you're using the numbers you prefer to make your point instead of the range. CDC itself says flu death rate is .05 to .14%. You're using the top. There's a huge difference. Or maybe it isn't huge if you're trying to cherry pick what you want.

And these serology studies you cite... they're confirming that it's showing in 20% of those tested. Not 20% of the entire population of the United States of America.

 

[Horns11]

Reminds me of the story of the plague where a kingdom erected high walls and all the aristocrats tried to hide from the Black Death by keeping all the poor people out thinking that would save them. When the doors were opened they were all dead because they didn't understand how the virus worked.

This is no different, you can't hide from this, there is no telling if/when a vaccine will happen, in fact, if it mutates and the media is now saying it does, then there will never be a vaccine.

The key to beating this is herd immunity, let the strong get it and build up their own immunity to it. Those of us who are not strong should hold up and wait to see if a vaccine can save us, but there is no need to destroy our world to try and save the weak. This world belongs to the young and strong, not the old and weak.

OK Dan Patrick.

Did you read the study? TTSI isn't "hiding from the virus." Or do you have a problem with how South Korea has handled the crisis?

 

[Monahorns]

And you're confirming that you're using the numbers you prefer to make your point instead of the range. CDC itself says flu death rate is .05 to .14%. You're using the top. There's a huge difference. Or maybe it isn't huge if you're trying to cherry pick what you want.

And these serology studies you cite... they're confirming that it's showing in 20% of those tested. Not 20% of the entire population of the United States of America.

I am using the numbers from the most recent studies. You are using numbers and model projections from a month ago that have been proven wildly inaccurate. If you refuse to update your understanding that is on you. If further studies shift the picture toward a higher death rate, then so be it.

Okay. Do you understand how case studies are done and how they are applied statistically? Your second paragraph indicates either you don't or you are being willfully ignorant.

 

[Austin_Bill]

OK Dan Patrick.

Did you read the study? TTSI isn't "hiding from the virus." Or do you have a problem with how South Korea has handled the crisis?

I don't give two shakes of my member how South Korea is handling this. I have a problem with how the United States is handling this virus.

Hiding from this virus isn't going to do anything for us, we need the young and strong to get back to work and get the sickness in order to develop a herd immunity to it. Old and Sick people need to stay in isolation but we can't defeat this thing buy keeping people out of harms way. If (and that is a very big If) there is a vaccine fine but we will never recover as a country in this manner.

 

[mchammer]

 

[OUBubba]

I don't give two shakes of my member how South Korea is handling this. I have a problem with how the United States is handling this virus.

Hiding from this virus isn't going to do anything for us, we need the young and strong to get back to work and get the sickness in order to develop a herd immunity to it. Old and Sick people need to stay in isolation but we can't defeat this thing buy keeping people out of harms way. If (and that is a very big If) there is a vaccine fine but we will never recover as a country in this manner.

But...they handled it well. We should at least learn from them.

 

[Horns11]

I am using the numbers from the most recent studies. You are using numbers and model projections from a month ago that have been proven wildly inaccurate. If you refuse to update your understanding that is on you. If further studies shift the picture toward a higher death rate, then so be it.

Okay. Do you understand how case studies are done and how they are applied statistically? Your second paragraph indicates either you don't or you are being willfully ignorant.

I was talking about your flu numbers. Why did you use the high end instead of the range? I think I know the reason why.

For the serology studies, I'd like to see the ones you're referring to. The positivity rate is what is coming up at 20% across the board in tested populations. There's a reason why those are the tested populations. Do the same test in Crockett County, what do you think the positivity rate is going to be?

I don't give two shakes of my member how South Korea is handling this. I have a problem with how the United States is handling this virus.

Hiding from this virus isn't going to do anything for us, we need the young and strong to get back to work and get the sickness in order to develop a herd immunity to it. Old and Sick people need to stay in isolation but we can't defeat this thing buy keeping people out of harms way. If (and that is a very big If) there is a vaccine fine but we will never recover as a country in this manner.

Then you didn't read the study. TTSI has nothing to do with "hiding from the virus," like you keep repeating. In fact, I'd say what you want to happen in order to defeat this thing is exactly parroting what the study said. Now, it wasn't immediate, but I don't think you're calling for an immediate return to normal. It gave a timeframe for all this to happen, if you want to break down restriction lifting and all that. But it's not herd immunity; it's aggressive tracking and such. And while that tracking is going on, we develop the vaccine. Purposeful infection at this point (when less than 0.4 percent of the world have been confirmed carriers) is not going to happen in a way you seem to want it to happen.

 

[iatrogenic]

So family members assign the cause of death? Does that happen anywhere?

-Charles Manson’s family
-Many Muslim families with suicide bombers
-Oklahoma meth-head redneck families
-Etc
I would agree that the paperwork is usually lacking.

 

[RainH2burntO]

So family members assign the cause of death? Does that happen anywhere?

My understanding is they were asked to sign a document and it had covid as the cause of death and, in both instances, the family member declined. In one of the instances, the family member related the story of the hospital staff basically coaxing her to sign it, blatantly acknowledging the falsehood.
It's just two instances, but sure worth noting when you hear these things directly from an involved and trustworthy party...not some random link or youtube stuff. IDK...I didn't see it with my own eyes...only sharing due to the first-hand nature of the accounts. Probably has more to do with getting funding than politics or perception...who knows?

 

[Monahorns]

I was talking about your flu numbers. Why did you use the high end instead of the range? I think I know the reason why.

Because that is the only number I have heard quoted by an expert. NOW you know the reason why.

 

[Monahorns]

For the serology studies, I'd like to see the ones you're referring to. The positivity rate is what is coming up at 20% across the board in tested populations. There's a reason why those are the tested populations. Do the same test in Crockett County, what do you think the positivity rate is going to be?

I posted the Santa Clara Co. and Boston ones already on this thread or another. The only one I hadn't is here.

Preliminary results of USC-LA County COVID-19 study released - Press Room

Puts death rate right in the middle of where I am talking about.

 

[Horns11]

So what we're actually arguing about is reporting the case numbers, based on the Santa Clara and LA ones. I haven't read the Boston one yet. I'm not sure how those counties report their numbers, but if they're keeping it artificially low to make the death rate look worse than it is, then I'm sure conspiracy theorists will get right on that.

What you are using (reported numbers versus the multiplied factor higher) and what I was using (percent of the county purported to have antibodies based on the high end of the margin of error) is a HUGE range.

Take the 28-55x higher for LA County and 50-80x higher for Santa Clara. Set aside the obvious fact that those places have had more confirmed cases due to the population, density, etc. than many parts of the nation, save for NYC and NJ. Use the high end of either of those, turn it into the entire population of the USA, and now we're looking at 45MM to 65MM carriers. Not 80MM like the .05 percent death rate suggested, but still really, really high.

But now take the percent of the county's population stats.
High end: LA County - 5.6%, Santa Clara - 4.2%
Extrapolated to whole country: 14MM - 19MM
Low end (from the LA/SC study within the MoE) extrapolated to whole country: 8MM - 9MM

Even using the 19MM number and having zero more coronavirus deaths forever in the US, that's still 0.23%, which is nearly 5x higher than 0.05%.

Like I said in my ___ post on this thread (don't know), we have to use the data we have to calculate the death rate. Not nonexisting data and assumptions about what it might be. Obviously it will update as testing improves. Fauci kind of implied on Meet the Press that the carrier # could be as high as 80MM, and I think people are running with that because it makes the death rate seem lower. When the death rate seems lower, people are more apt to compare it to the flu so that their lives can get back to normal.

 

[Horn6721]

Wait mc
I thought those Euro countries listed had health care systems Dems brag about.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

Wait mc
I thought those Euro countries listed had health care systems Dems brag about.

But, its freeeeeee......therefore it must be better.

 

[Austin_Bill]

But...they handled it well. We should at least learn from them.

Is the Virus still out there? Are there Koreans still getting sick? Are they in lockdown? Unless there are no sick Koreans and no prospect for them getting sick then they haven't done Jack except hide from it like the rest of the world.

You can't hide from a Virus and think it will just go away. Unless you have a plan for your citizens to get it and survive then you have nothing.

Hiding isn't a plan, hiding is what you do when your plan fails. Sincerely Val and Earl.

 

[dukesteer]

"Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience: Massive Scale Testing, Tracing, and Supported Isolation (TTSI) as the Path to Pandemic Resilience for a Free Society," lays out how a massive scale-up of testing, paired with contact tracing and supported isolation, can rebuild trust in our personal safety and re-mobilize the U.S. economy.

Among the report’s top recommendations is the need to deliver at least 5 million tests per day by early June to help ensure a safe social opening. This number will need to increase to 20 million tests per day by mid-summer to fully re-mobilize the economy.

You can also find the report and related material at the Pandemic Resilience Roadmap website, www.pandemictesting.org.

Admittedly I haven’t read the 56 page report.

While there is certainly value in widespread testing, contact tracing and selected isolation, there is also a major flaw in that strategy, as explained by Dr. Fauci in the press conference of a couple of days ago.

If you test negative today, that doesn’t mean that you will test negative tomorrow. And if you test negative tomorrow, that doesn’t mean that you will test negative the next day. And so on. (That is, unless you have been in complete isolation for at least two weeks, or perhaps more.) It’s a point in time, immediate — you have the active virus in your system right now — test.

Would you feel “completely” comfortable interacting with someone today that tested negative two days ago? I would not. Remember, I said “completely” comfortable.

My wife needs to see the dentist. I told her that the only way I would feel “completely” comfortable would be if our dentist, who we love, had one of those 15 minute Abbott machines in his office. I want someone who will have their face, albeit covered with a mask, inches from mine to prove that they do not have any transmittable remnants.

To me the answer is wide-spread antibody testing...which is now showing up everywhere. If someone — a dentist, a restaurant worker, whomever — could assure me that they have the antibodies “and also” have no active infection “based on a recent test,” I would be much more confident.

To me the massive testing being proposed by many somewhat misses the point.

 

[Austin_Bill]

I was talking about your flu numbers. Why did you use the high end instead of the range? I think I know the reason why.

For the serology studies, I'd like to see the ones you're referring to. The positivity rate is what is coming up at 20% across the board in tested populations. There's a reason why those are the tested populations. Do the same test in Crockett County, what do you think the positivity rate is going to be?



Then you didn't read the study. TTSI has nothing to do with "hiding from the virus," like you keep repeating. In fact, I'd say what you want to happen in order to defeat this thing is exactly parroting what the study said. Now, it wasn't immediate, but I don't think you're calling for an immediate return to normal. It gave a timeframe for all this to happen, if you want to break down restriction lifting and all that. But it's not herd immunity; it's aggressive tracking and such. And while that tracking is going on, we develop the vaccine. Purposeful infection at this point (when less than 0.4 percent of the world have been confirmed carriers) is not going to happen in a way you seem to want it to happen.

Based on a hope that a vaccine will happen. There is no guarantee there will be a vaccine anytime soon. MY idea is based on historical results of dealing with real pandemics like small pox, the plague etc. If there is a extremely low percentage of young people who die I'd want all young people to get it and get over it. As of the last numbers I read, out of 150K kids under 18 that got the Kung Flu only 3 have died. I feel for the families of those 3 but I'd still take my chances with those numbers.

 

[Clean]

The Jerusalem Post had an article that said there are now 30 different variations of Covid-19. Some of the strains deliver up tp 270 times the viral payload of other strains! It may explain why places like New York get hit so hard. It may also suggest that a single vaccine won’t offer 100% protection.

 

[OUBubba]

More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study