China

Horn6721 said:
Ah parental reality. Such a sobering thing
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He brings home every nasty-*** bug that's going around. I'm just starting to get over a cold he brought home a week ago. I don't see what he does at school, but I do see what he does at AWANA meetings at church on Wednesday nights. During game time, those kids are constantly touching the floor (where they sit), touching each other, and touching their faces. Fortunately, he's at least starting to get past the nose-picking phase, but plenty of the kids he plays with haven't. It's a miracle they don't all get staph infections every week. I'm pretty militant about hand-washing, but I can only force that at home.

And he's a very affectionate kid. He's a big hugger and snuggler with his mom and with me, and we can't bear to turn him away just because he might be carrying a bug. We can't even do it when we know he's sick.
 
South Korea topped out
If China is being honest now about its cases, Wuhan has topped out
This graph makes it look like Spain may have topped out too
Italy maybe not yet though

So ... 6-8 weeks (maybe longer for NY)?

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We were sending them supplies by early Feb
Ironic now given how they subsequently withheld normal supply chain supplies to us
 
The British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London who predicted over 2 million Americans — and 500k Brits — would die from coronavirus now says his model, which went viral, is wrong. He now says England is unlikely to have more than 20k deaths and potentially much less.

Whoopsie. This is the guy who panicked the world. Now he is running from his doomsday projections. He whiffed on every significant data point he put into his formula. Which is why the formula isn’t — and wasn’t ever — remotely accurate.

He also now says hospitals in the UK should have enough beds to handle the situation and that instead of lasting 12-18 months as he originally forecast, the virus is likely to peak in two or three weeks. Sadly, his "correction" will get a fraction of the attention of his fear mongering.

The whole word was relying upon his model. Meanwhile 3.28 million Americans lost their jobs last week because of this man’s forecast and the media’s reckless propagation of that forecast. And now it turns out he was totally wrong. It's crazy

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
 
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Joe Fan said:
The British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London who predicted over 2 million Americans — and 500k Brits — would die from coronavirus now says his model, which went viral, is wrong. He now says England is unlikely to have more than 20k deaths and potentially much less.

Whoopsie. This is the guy who panicked the world. Now he is running from his doomsday projections. He whiffed on every significant data point he put into his formula. Which is why the formula isn’t — and wasn’t ever — remotely accurate.

He also now says hospitals in the UK should have enough beds to handle the situation and that instead of lasting 12-18 months as he originally forecast, the virus is likely to peak in two or three weeks. Sadly, his "correction" will get a fraction of the attention of his fear mongering.

The whole word was relying upon his model. Meanwhile 3.28 million Americans lost their jobs last week because of this man’s forecast and the media’s reckless propagation of that forecast. And now it turns out he was totally wrong. It's crazy

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
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I'm sure that somehow he got rich by doing this. Everyone buying in to his thinking. What a POS.
 
horninchicago said:
I'm sure that somehow he got rich by doing this. Everyone buying in to his thinking. What a POS.
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I am not sure if he had an evil plot in mind. But the assumptions he used were wrong, which made all of his results bad. Had he used different assumptions at the start, his algorithms would have produced different results (just like what happens if you play around with Climate Change model assumptions). I think the worst part is that the rest of the world accepted the product of his computer models without any challenge whatsoever. And it wasnt just the media this time, it was Govts too. It's pretty pathetic all around.
 
horninchicago said:
I'm sure that somehow he got rich by doing this. Everyone buying in to his thinking. What a POS.
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I'm sure a lot of scientists, WHO employees, CDC employees got real rich either shorting the market themselves or telling friends, relatives, to do so, while a lot of good hard-working people got poor. That's more sickening than the coronavirus.
 
Joe Fan said:
The British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London who predicted over 2 million Americans — and 500k Brits — would die from coronavirus now says his model, which went viral, is wrong. He now says England is unlikely to have more than 20k deaths and potentially much less.

Whoopsie. This is the guy who panicked the world. Now he is running from his doomsday projections. He whiffed on every significant data point he put into his formula. Which is why the formula isn’t — and wasn’t ever — remotely accurate.

He also now says hospitals in the UK should have enough beds to handle the situation and that instead of lasting 12-18 months as he originally forecast, the virus is likely to peak in two or three weeks. Sadly, his "correction" will get a fraction of the attention of his fear mongering.

The whole word was relying upon his model. Meanwhile 3.28 million Americans lost their jobs last week because of this man’s forecast and the media’s reckless propagation of that forecast. And now it turns out he was totally wrong. It's crazy

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
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Not only that, but half the people who die would have died in 2020 anyway, so net deaths in UK is 10,000
 
Last edited:
Joe Fan said:
The British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London who predicted over 2 million Americans — and 500k Brits — would die from coronavirus now says his model, which went viral, is wrong. He now says England is unlikely to have more than 20k deaths and potentially much less.

Whoopsie. This is the guy who panicked the world. Now he is running from his doomsday projections. He whiffed on every significant data point he put into his formula. Which is why the formula isn’t — and wasn’t ever — remotely accurate.

He also now says hospitals in the UK should have enough beds to handle the situation and that instead of lasting 12-18 months as he originally forecast, the virus is likely to peak in two or three weeks. Sadly, his "correction" will get a fraction of the attention of his fear mongering.

The whole word was relying upon his model. Meanwhile 3.28 million Americans lost their jobs last week because of this man’s forecast and the media’s reckless propagation of that forecast. And now it turns out he was totally wrong. It's crazy

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
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I know liberals on FB when confronted with all this say it is because of what Italy and other countries did in response to his initial prediction. But, Italy is not the UK. The UK only went on lockdown 2 days ago. How could it go down that much if people have not been on lockdown? And he doesn't revise his US model if we don't go on full lockdown?
 
Joe Fan said:
I am not sure if he had an evil plot in mind. But the assumptions he used were wrong, which made all of his results bad. Had he used different assumptions at the start, his algorithms would have produced different results (just like what happens if you play around with Climate Change model assumptions). I think the worst part is that the rest of the world accepted the product of his computer models without any challenge whatsoever. And it wasnt just the media this time, it was Govts too. It's pretty pathetic all around.
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Not if your goal is one world government. Collapse the US Economy and usher in the removal of Trump. A lot of these socialist governments, scientists, billionaires, entertainers really want this more than anything. They don't care about we the People. This has become a Global Cartel!
 
Google translated -- "On the Jiujiang Yangtze River Bridge in Jiangxi Province on the border between Hubei and Jiangxi provinces, the traffic police in Jiangxi did not let Hubei people pass in accordance with the government's instructions, and the traffic police in Hubei were dragged to the border of Hubei and beaten. Jiangxi dispatched special police, and then the two sides broke out. "


 
The "official numbers" for Xinjiang, which is the Chinese region where they keep ~ 1M Muslims in concentration camps, is 76 cases, with only 3 deaths.

Seems impossible ...
 
I know liberals on FB when confronted with all this say it is because of what Italy and other countries did in response to his initial prediction.
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It shows how Progressives have a cognitive dissonance issue and have an assumption that they are correct no matter what.
 
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