Reasons Beto can win:
1) Roe v Wade. Depends on your position concerning abortion and how the law was interpreted by the majority on SCOTUS. The latter requires you be a person who actually reads things and have an informed view of the Constitution; otherwise, it's either, "Oh No! They banned it" (demagoguery as it was not banned by the federal government) or "Damn Right! Abortion is murder!"
2) Talk of Republicans banning contraceptives; this is the real tricky part. I believe the Christian Zealots (also known as The American Taliban) are nuttier than hell and very scary. I Totalitarian Socialists are scary, the crazy religious cultish types are just as bad in their own way.
3) The GRID though the fact that it held up over this past winter and this summer is a great help to Abbott though I'm not sure he had anything to do with it's success. I'd make sure to throw out numbers that make it appear (or is it actually true) that big wealthy white oil & gas suppliers made a fortune while the rate payers (you and me) are now going to pay those high bills back over the next 20-30 years by a method the utilities call, securitization.
4) Teachers wanting more money and he's telling them what they want to hear.
5) Jan 6 / Trump. If all that makes you feel that that there are white supremacists out there ready to start a civil war and/or get Texas to secede then this one's for you. Also, voting for Abbott means you're voting for the aforementioned Trump but also Cruz, Kavanaugh, DeSantis etc... people that Liberals hate.
6) The stats that might show Texas is abysmal when it comes to health insurance percentages and education (SAT/ACT scores; drop-out rates etc).
7) He's cool. Was in a band. Rides a skateboard. Doesn't look like a scary old white man. Flirts effectively with everyone's wife.
8) He's a Latino. LOL Yeah, that could play.
9) or 1) The virtue signaling psychological phenomenon that makes Liberals out of otherwise moderate whites.
10) The image that Republicans aren't sensitive on COVID issues.
11) Republicans are mean.
12) The GRID didn't fail this year and two years ago was a force majeure or once in a lifetime event (even if that is not true going forward).
Reasons Abbott will win:
1) Texas is a Republican state and our leadership also heavily embraces what it means to be a Texan. This turns a lot of people on.
2) Austin is not Texas but those that live here can feel as if Beto is going to win because it's so overwhelmingly Liberal. I feel that phenomenon myself as I live here and it seems Liberals are all over the place; which they are. I have to remind myself that's not the case in the rest of the state.
3) Immigration
4) Jobs jobs jobs
5) Crime. If I'm Abbott I slam Beto on Defund the Police even if he never said it.
6) Liberalism in general. If I'm Abbott I make sure everyone knows who Beto actually aligns with and hammer him on it daily.
7) A solid government balance sheet relative to the Liberal states.
8) He's a white guy trying to make it look like he's Latino, even if he's not really trying to do that.