2024 GOP Primary

Of course the increase requests for mail in ballots is critical.
PLEASE all those people must vote and vote Republican.
 
Mr. Deez said:
My worry is that in '22, the polls (including some of these pollsters) were overestimating Republican support, and we ended up losing a lot of races we were expecting to win. We had the reverse of what happened in '20. I also know that every there's an agenda in the concept of polling. People want theirs side to feel confident enough to not be discouraged but not so confident that they don't turn out.

So personally, I feel kinda lost on the polls and don't feel like I can trust any of them.
Click to expand...
Two things: First, GOP won the national vote in 2022 (summed votes of congressional candidates). Second, low propensity voters now vote GOP. They used to vote Dem, but now vote GOP. In low turnout elections like 2022, Dems have advantages as their voters (upper income liberal folks) are high propensity voters.

With the above generally recognized by political folks, the big issue is whether these low propensity voters show up in 2024. This is why early voting data is important to look at. Also it would be hard for Harris to beat Biden 2020 in terms of numbers of vote by mail and well as the % Dem. And in fact, that is what we are seeing. Will all the Dems not voting early show up on Election Day? I doubt it. It only takes 1/200 Dems not to show vs 2020 for Trump to win.
 
Last edited:
Mr. Deez said:
It seems like a few weeks ago, we were supposed to listen to Nate Silver, because he was somewhat red pilled and no longer liked by the MSM. This is sorta my point. I'm really not particularly confident in anybody. Everybody seems to have an agenda when it comes to polling.
Click to expand...
Silver is using these fake polls without any semblance of thought. If the polls are wrong and Trump wins, Silver will say that falls within the 45% chance estimated for Trump. Sort of a scam. As long as it is 60/40 in either direction, these election models are useless because of GIGO.
 
mchammer said:
Two things: First, GOP won the national vote in 2022 (summed votes of congressional candidates). Second, low propensity voters now vote GOP. They used to vote Dem, but now vote GOP. In low turnout elections like 2022, Dems have advantages as their voters (upper income liberal folks) are high propensity voters.

With the above generally recognized by political folks, the big issue is whether these low propensity voters show up in 2024. This is why early voting data is important to look at. Also it would be hard for Harris to beat Biden 2020 in terms of numbers of vote by mail and well as the % Dem. And in fact, that is what we are seeing. Will all the Dems not voting early show up on Election Day? I doubt it. It only takes 1/200 Dems not to show vs 2020 for Trump to win.
Click to expand...

The early voting in VA and PA tells us that dems better have a huge turnout on election day or they're sunk.

The dems are in serious trouble as of now.
 
Mr. Deez said:
It seems like a few weeks ago, we were supposed to listen to Nate Silver, because he was somewhat red pilled and no longer liked by the MSM. This is sorta my point. I'm really not particularly confident in anybody. Everybody seems to have an agenda when it comes to polling.
Click to expand...
 
Mr. Deez said:
It seems like a few weeks ago, we were supposed to listen to Nate Silver, because he was somewhat red pilled and no longer liked by the MSM. This is sorta my point. I'm really not particularly confident in anybody. Everybody seems to have an agenda when it comes to polling.
Click to expand...
Do you really think Trump is only up by 3-4% pts in FL?

 
When Trump wins FL by 2x that margin (6-8% pts), do you think Silver is going to seriously address the polling errors? LOLZ.
 
mchammer said:
Two things: First, GOP won the national vote in 2022 (summed votes of congressional candidates). Second, low propensity voters now vote GOP. They used to vote Dem, but now vote GOP. In low turnout elections like 2022, Dems have advantages as their voters (upper income liberal folks) are high propensity voters.

With the above generally recognized by political folks, the big issue is whether these low propensity voters show up in 2024. This is why early voting data is important to look at. Also it would be hard for Harris to beat Biden 2020 in terms of numbers of vote by mail and well as the % Dem. And in fact, that is what we are seeing. Will all the Dems not voting early show up on Election Day? I doubt it. It only takes 1/200 Dems not to show vs 2020 for Trump to win.
Click to expand...

Isn't it early to make early voting turnout and mail assumptions? We're not even into October yet. Personally, my ballot hasn't even shown up.
 
It seems that a lot of people are mad as hell about the democrat governor's performance in NC over this hurricane.

That can only help Trump.
 
ViperHorn said:
Very doubtful that Trump can carry NM - to many citizens on the government/tribal payrolls.
Click to expand...
Having driven through the Navajo Nation a few years ago, they weren't the most liberal bunch I've seen...maybe that shifts across the border from Window Rock, but still...
 
mb227 said:
Having driven through the Navajo Nation a few years ago, they weren't the most liberal bunch I've seen...maybe that shifts across the border from Window Rock, but still...
Click to expand...

I would also point out that CO is Democratic mainly because the Denver and Boulder areas are insane. Southern Colorado isn't anywhere near as bad. So if that part of NM resembles southern CO, that wouldn't be an insurmountable problem.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Isn't it early to make early voting turnout and mail assumptions? We're not even into October yet. Personally, my ballot hasn't even shown up.
Click to expand...
Folks are following the data (vote by mail requests and early vote) where it exists in terms of GOP vs DEM turnout relative to 2020.
 
Last edited:
Mr. Deez said:
If they're so accurate, then why assume they're wrong in NC?
Click to expand...
If you run 7 polls, statistics tell that you will likely have one outlier. Could also be the governor effect which will likely dissipate for Trump by Election Day.
 
Mr. Deez said:
That was about the margin in '20. I don't know if that's accurate, but it's not crazy.
Click to expand...
You should check the voter registration data in Florida since 2020. I thought I have posted it before. Huge GOP swing. Again this is hard data. The burden of proof is on you: why would folks register as GOP but vote Harris?
 
Last edited:
Mr. Deez said:
I would also point out that CO is Democratic mainly because the Denver and Boulder areas are insane. Southern Colorado isn't anywhere near as bad. So if that part of NM resembles southern CO, that wouldn't be an insurmountable problem.
Click to expand...
Sante Fe and parts of Albuquerque is Nuevo San Francisco.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict TEXAS-OU *
Sat, Oct 12 • 2:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top