2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Harris seems to top out at 47% in these national polls.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Second point is that volume is way down so Dems have to rely more on ED voters relative to 2020. Not good for them.

 

[mchammer]

 

[LonghornCatholic]

 

[Horn6721]

Probably a stupid question but if Demx so far out registered Pubs in 2020 those Demx don't need to register again??
While it is great Republican registration is up not sure it is a yippee moment.
Is there something more?

 

[mchammer]

Nobody has confidence in her to pull ahead? In most polling, she's already ahead.

View attachment 10920

I'm not saying she has it in the bag, but I think you're a bit overconfident here. He could very easily lose this election.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[Mr. Deez]

Trump is winning PA. The map above is a farce.

Is there a basis for that, or is it just a tingle down your leg?

 

[Mr. Deez]

The pollsters who were correct in 2020 say that Trump is ahead.

MSM polling has her ahead. MSM polling is oversampling democrats on almost every single poll.

How do we know they're all oversampling Democrats?

 

[mchammer]

Is there a basis for that, or is it just a tingle down your leg?

Both campaigns have acknowledged Trump is ahead in PA. Shapiro and Fetterman have said similar things. Finally, GOP has made huge gains in voter registration (public data).

 

[mchammer]

How do we know they're all oversampling Democrats?

Gallup poll which is considered the gold standard has a +2 GOP advantage.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Gallup poll which is considered the gold standard has a +2 GOP advantage.

Gallup isn't even showing up in RCP's PA poll.

 

[mchammer]

Gallup isn't even showing up in RCP's PA poll.

Gallup’s political affiliation poll:

From the link: This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948.

2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP

Most key measures of the political environment for the 2024 election favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.

news.gallup.com

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[Garmel]

How do we know they're all oversampling Democrats?

Almost all of them are if you look. Others are just poorly biased trash.

MSM polls are like their news. It's there to help the dems.

If you look at the 2020 polls the ones who were most accurate are from moderate to conservative orgs. These are the ones who are saying Trump will win 2024.

Here's a hint- do not listen to Nate Silver.

 

[Hollandtx]

I felt so good about the "red wave" in 2020, and then it broke my heart.
mchammer, you are doing a great job at keeping the polls and other information posted. I really appreciate your work.

I wish I had your confidence and enthusiasm. Maybe it's because I talk to more women.
But I have a very bad feeling in the pit of my stomach that Kamala is going to pull this out somehow, some way.
And, I literally pray every day that I am wrong.

 

[mchammer]

I felt so good about the "red wave" in 2020, and then it broke my heart.
mchammer, you are doing a great job at keeping the polls and other information posted. I really appreciate your work.

I wish I had your confidence and enthusiasm. Maybe it's because I talk to more women.
But I have a very bad feeling in the pit of my stomach that Kamala is going to pull this out somehow, some way.
And, I literally pray every day that I am wrong.

In 2 weeks we will have more data from more places than today in terms of vote by mail and early vote.

Also, the GOP voter registration gains in NC and PA give me encouragement plus the GOP efforts to minimize cheating.

 

[mchammer]

How do we know they're all oversampling Democrats?

 

[mchammer]

Apparently 10% of vote by mail is in for the state of Virginia. Need 2 more weeks to see if trend is real:

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[Mr. Deez]

My worry is that in '22, the polls (including some of these pollsters) were overestimating Republican support, and we ended up losing a lot of races we were expecting to win. We had the reverse of what happened in '20. I also know that every there's an agenda in the concept of polling. People want theirs side to feel confident enough to not be discouraged but not so confident that they don't turn out.

So personally, I feel kinda lost on the polls and don't feel like I can trust any of them.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Almost all of them are if you look. Others are just poorly biased trash.

MSM polls are like their news. It's there to help the dems.

If you look at the 2020 polls the ones who were most accurate are from moderate to conservative orgs. These are the ones who are saying Trump will win 2024.

Here's a hint- do not listen to Nate Silver.

It seems like a few weeks ago, we were supposed to listen to Nate Silver, because he was somewhat red pilled and no longer liked by the MSM. This is sorta my point. I'm really not particularly confident in anybody. Everybody seems to have an agenda when it comes to polling.

 

[Garmel]

It seems like a few weeks ago, we were supposed to listen to Nate Silver, because he was somewhat red pilled and no longer liked by the MSM. This is sorta my point. I'm really not particularly confident in anybody. Everybody seems to have an agenda when it comes to polling.

Nate Silver started using a bunch of oversampled democrat polls to his analysis. That's why he doesn't need to be listened to anymore.