2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Monmouth missed 2020 by 8% pts on average for their state polling

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Here are the latest poll numbers where Trump is ahead or tied by state:

NC 6/7
GA 8/8
AZ 6/6
PA 7/7

Thus, in the last 28 polls in the most 4 important states, Trump is ahead or tied in the last 27/28 polls.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Here are the latest poll numbers where Trump is ahead or tied by state:

NC 6/7
GA 8/8
AZ 6/6
PA 7/7

Thus, in the last 28 polls in the most 4 important states, Trump is ahead or tied in the last 27/28 polls.

****! Above data already out of date:

 

[Garmel]

It might be a pipe dream but how great would it be to get Virginia?

 

[mchammer]

Darn! Another update:

 

[mchammer]

It might be a pipe dream but how great would it be to get Virginia?

If Youngkin is the nominee in 2028, he only needs to win VA, NC, GA, and AZ to be president. Seems like a slam dunk.

 

[Horn6721]

Does all this positive polling for Trump incentivize Demx cheating? They are not going to roll over and say we will try harder next time.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Note I previously predicted 50-48.5 Trump win in popular vote:

 

[mchammer]

Here are the latest poll numbers where Trump is ahead or tied by state:

NC 6/7
GA 8/8
AZ 6/6
PA 7/7

Thus, in the last 28 polls in the most 4 important states, Trump is ahead or tied in the last 27/28 polls.

****! Add these to the list too!

 

[mchammer]

Here are the latest poll numbers where Trump is ahead or tied by state:

NC 6/7
GA 8/8
AZ 7/7
PA 7/7

Thus, in the last 28 polls in the most 4 important states, Trump is ahead or tied in the last 27/28 polls.

Updated numbers:

NC 7/8
GA 9/9
AZ 6/6
PA 7/7

Thus, in the last 30 polls in the most 4 important states, Trump is ahead or tied in the last 29/30 polls.

 

[mchammer]

This is probably a 50-48 race in all likelihood:

 

[mchammer]

Okay, a new PA poll where Trump is behind:

 

[mchammer]

Okay, a new PA poll where Trump is behind:

YouGov and UMass were both off 4% pts in 2020.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Garmel]

Rasmussen even admits their state polls tend to favor the left. Those two ties are probably in Trump's favor.

 

[mchammer]

Rasmussen even admits their state polls tend to favor the left. Those two ties are probably in Trump's favor.

A Trump victory is nearly 100% certain at this point. Reality will set in around mid-October as the early vote and vote by mail comes into view in FL, NC, VA, PA, etc.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

A Trump victory is nearly 100% certain at this point. Reality will set in around mid-October as the early vote and vote by mail comes into view in FL, NC, VA, PA, etc.

Another way to put it is that no one has confidence in Harris to pull ahead. The more she talks the more she hurts here campaign.