2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[HornHuskerDad]

Can Trump manage enough support in NY to make it competitive by Election Day? And will his support filter down-ballot? It would be nice to flip a couple of House seats.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Mr. Deez]

I think Harris will underperform in NY, but it's not in play. In fact, I think NY and CA will be closer than in '16 or '20. But making up 29 and 24 point deficits in 4 years isn't a serious possibility.

 

[Mr. Deez]

This really shouldn't be a huge shock. If you're a Muslim, you may not like Trump's position on Israel. However, there are some comparisons with Hispanics. They're socially conservative, often run small businesses, and have some machismo. Are they more worried about Israel, or are they more worried about their taxes going up and public school teachers encouraging their sons to cut off their schlongs? The Iatter affects them a lot more.

 

[mchammer]

I am little surprised that the NYT/Sienna has been more sane than many other leftist polls:

 

[mchammer]

Unrounded margin in NC is +3 I am told.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

This is the way to counteract dem ballot harvesting:

 

[mchammer]

Now Emerson has battleground state polls showing Trump winning:

 

[mchammer]

MN close if you assume undecideds go for Trump:

 

[mchammer]

Trump is widening his lead according to Rasmussen (and Harris is stuck at 46%):

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

We need 2 more weeks for better confirmation of mail ballot requests for FL, NC, and PA. While FL and NC have early voting, I don’t think PA does.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[nashhorn]

Why would GOP requests be down at all? They should know the importance this year.
Saw a Harris/Waltz sign in neighborhood yard today. Just blows my mind but that’s life I reckon.

 

[SabreHorn]

Why would GOP requests be down at all? They should know the importance this year.
Saw a Harris/Waltz sign in neighborhood yard today. Just blows my mind but that’s life I reckon.

Republican cemetery raiding parties were lazy and last to get to the better SCI locations.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Why would GOP requests be down at all? They should know the importance this year.
Saw a Harris/Waltz sign in neighborhood yard today. Just blows my mind but that’s life I reckon.

This is compared to 2020 covid year. So, not really a fair comp. Just to be close is a win.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Last 8 polls in GA show Trump ahead or tied.

 

[mchammer]

Rasmussen has 10 battleground polls coming out. Here are the first two:

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

If Trump wins Maine at-large but loses one of the CD’s, and wins NV, he doesn’t need PA, MI, or WI.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Note how Harris has her best polling days on Sunday when Trump voters don’t pick up the phone.