I'm just not sure attacking Trump is going to win him the nomination. Trump is still very popular whether he should have been or not. That's why I think it was a mistake.
You may be right. The primary electorate may not have been open to choosing anyone ahead of Trump, regardless of electability, policy success, character, etc. However, trying to run as a more conventional version of Trump and trying to be soft on his vulnerabilities certainly wasn't going to cut it.
I think he assumed a few things that simply didn't turn out for him. First, he thought the primary electorate would be more pissed off about Covid and inflation. They clearly are not, and to the extent they are, they direct the blame entirely at Biden, whether that's fair or not.
Second, he thought they would give him more credit for directly taking on wokeness like it has never been taken on before. They may like what he did, but they don't prioritize it anywhere near as highly as he expected.
Third, I don't think he expected the media and Democrats to help Trump win the nomination as much as they have. For the last year, they've pretty much done everything they can to help him win it. It's framed as attacks on him, but it's entirely on fronts that help him in the primary. They've even done so at Biden's peril. For example, they could be talking about the big inflationary policies that Trump pushed for, and they aren't doing that.
Plus, I think it would be a much more substantial benefit for America if he worked with other red state governors to do what he did in Florida. I much rather want a DeSantis movement of governors using power to make states more conservative and secure against the federal government than him as a President, at least in 2024.
I suspect he will do that. It's not too late by any means, because even if the primary electorate doesn't give a crap, other governors can look at what he did in Florida (turning it from purple to red) and emulate it back home. And who knows? Maybe primary voters will care about policy again in '28, unless of course Trump runs again.