A lot of polls are showing mixed results with DeSantis vs Biden and Haley vs Biden so there is no sure winner with either one. DeSantis is having problems with independents.
I'm seeing mixed results for both Desantis and Trump with most showing Trump ahead of Biden and some showing him behind (overall up 2.3 in RCP average). Most I've seen show Desantis tied or behind narrowly (overall up .2). Most I've seen show Haley ahead of Biden (overall up 4.9). There are also some wild outliers in a mess of directions.
However, the polls mean little right now, because we're 11 months out. For starters, non-primary voters aren't paying a lot of attention. They may know Desantis and Haley are running, but they aren't following them. Furthermore, policy issues are virtually irrelevant to the GOP primary right now, so there's very little to pay attention to if you're not an insider. (By the way, that isn't necessarily a bad thing for the general election.)
A big thing about being relatively unknown is that in 11 months, Haley or Desantis could build a brand. Both have good records to run on. Haley is very personable. Desantis is much less so though a smooth strategist could help him with that. Clearly he was able to sell himself to what used to be a swing state. Trump and Biden already have set brands. People know what they are, and they largely wish they didn't have to pick either one.
The issues can also change. With inflation down, people may not be as pissed about the economy, which obviously helps Biden. I think immigration will still be a mess. I think the Israel and Ukraine stuff will still be going on. I actually think China will lay low during the election season. They don't like to look scary during election seasons.
What will be the issues for Trump in the months leading up to the election? Well, he's facing 4 felony charges, and that will be front and center for him. Every question directed at him will involve whatever case is moving. He'll be asked if he'll be pardoning himself. He'll be asked if he'll be pardoning January 6 rioters. He'll be asked what he'll do if convicted in the cases in which he can't pardon himself. There aren't good answers to any of those, and there's little he can do to minimise their relevance or importance. I'm not sure that he wants to anyway. His favourite thing to talk about is himself. (And of course, Trump's best poll numbers are always when he's NOT in the news.)
Obviously, he'll make himself out to be a victim of political persecution, and he'll have some degree of success with that. Plenty of this stuff looks very partisan, but if any of them turn into actual convictions and sentencing, most voters aren't going to just dismiss that as politics. Frankly, how could they?
And of course, all of this means Biden's negatives aren't going to be the focus. He'll be able to run the basement campaign again, and it'll likely work again.
But again, we don't have to choose this dilemma. We could nominate a normal candidate who can run a real campaign, build a brand, and attack Biden where he's vulnerable and actually make those areas issues of importance. I'm losing faith that we will do that, but that's on us and our voters. If we choose Trump and lose in '24, I won't feel sympathy for our party or its voters. This shouldn't be a difficult call.