2024 GOP Primary

Is there any danger that the SCOTUS will decide not to take the case?

I can't imagine them not taking it. It's massively important, and there's clear federal jurisdiction. It's a state court, but it's a state court ruling on a question of federal law. They'd be crazy not to take it.
 
I can't imagine them not taking it. It's massively important, and there's clear federal jurisdiction. It's a state court, but it's a state court ruling on a question of federal law. They'd be crazy not to take it.
If we had a few more D appointees, they probably wouldn't.
 
:lmao:

Not from the Colorado Supreme Court decision but another court. Still funny.

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So it just takes testimony to be guilty in this jurisdiction and in Colorado?
 
shall have engaged in insurrection
Note, the 14th Am also states: "shall have engaged in insurrection..."

That's not the same as aiding and abetting, or conspiracy. The target must have actually engaged in insurrection.
 
Please don't let us make this situation worse by playing the tit for tat game.
I absolutely hate what Colorado is doing, no matter the candidate, but for other states to follow suit is a very slippery slope and a threat to our democracy.

I literally pray we may come back to some type of normalcy in our candidates, our 2 parties, and our voters. This trend is extremely worrisome to me.
 
Say hello to El Presidente Trump!



It guarantees no trial before the primary, not before the election. Surely you don't think the DoJ is going to follow the the alleged practice of trying to avoid political impacts, do you? This whole case is about political impact. Also, this ruling doesn't impact all four cases.

And of course, this entire dilemma is optional. We have two other options who would almost surely defeat Biden and would have none of these problems. But that's sorta like Inigo Montoya sword fighting right handed. It would be over too quickly, so we're instead going to have him fight left handed, handcuffed, and blindfolded. We have to give the Democrats as much chance to win as we possibly can.
 
It guarantees no trial before the primary, not before the election. Surely you don't think the DoJ is going to follow the the alleged practice of trying to avoid political impacts, do you? This whole case is about political impact. Also, this ruling doesn't impact all four cases.

And of course, this entire dilemma is optional. We have two other options who would almost surely defeat Biden and would have none of these problems. But that's sorta like Inigo Montoya sword fighting right handed. It would be over too quickly, so we're instead going to have him fight left handed, handcuffed, and blindfolded. We have to give the Democrats as much chance to win as we possibly can.

A lot of polls are showing mixed results with DeSantis vs Biden and Haley vs Biden so there is no sure winner with either one. DeSantis is having problems with independents.
 
DeSantis shouldn't be in the running this year. His year would have been 2028. He needed to support Trump or whoever won in 2024 in order to shift them right. If Trump wins in 2024 then he is the up and comer who is a part of the movement. In my opinion he miscalculated. This may be the end for him as a Presidential candidate.

I think he is better than Trump in important areas and worse in others. If he could have added Trump's foreign policy to his willingness to use power domestically he could make big changes. He needs to strengthen Florida as a Red stronghold and show other governors how it's done.
 
A lot of polls are showing mixed results with DeSantis vs Biden and Haley vs Biden so there is no sure winner with either one. DeSantis is having problems with independents.

I'm seeing mixed results for both Desantis and Trump with most showing Trump ahead of Biden and some showing him behind (overall up 2.3 in RCP average). Most I've seen show Desantis tied or behind narrowly (overall up .2). Most I've seen show Haley ahead of Biden (overall up 4.9). There are also some wild outliers in a mess of directions.

However, the polls mean little right now, because we're 11 months out. For starters, non-primary voters aren't paying a lot of attention. They may know Desantis and Haley are running, but they aren't following them. Furthermore, policy issues are virtually irrelevant to the GOP primary right now, so there's very little to pay attention to if you're not an insider. (By the way, that isn't necessarily a bad thing for the general election.)

A big thing about being relatively unknown is that in 11 months, Haley or Desantis could build a brand. Both have good records to run on. Haley is very personable. Desantis is much less so though a smooth strategist could help him with that. Clearly he was able to sell himself to what used to be a swing state. Trump and Biden already have set brands. People know what they are, and they largely wish they didn't have to pick either one.

The issues can also change. With inflation down, people may not be as pissed about the economy, which obviously helps Biden. I think immigration will still be a mess. I think the Israel and Ukraine stuff will still be going on. I actually think China will lay low during the election season. They don't like to look scary during election seasons.

What will be the issues for Trump in the months leading up to the election? Well, he's facing 4 felony charges, and that will be front and center for him. Every question directed at him will involve whatever case is moving. He'll be asked if he'll be pardoning himself. He'll be asked if he'll be pardoning January 6 rioters. He'll be asked what he'll do if convicted in the cases in which he can't pardon himself. There aren't good answers to any of those, and there's little he can do to minimise their relevance or importance. I'm not sure that he wants to anyway. His favourite thing to talk about is himself. (And of course, Trump's best poll numbers are always when he's NOT in the news.)

Obviously, he'll make himself out to be a victim of political persecution, and he'll have some degree of success with that. Plenty of this stuff looks very partisan, but if any of them turn into actual convictions and sentencing, most voters aren't going to just dismiss that as politics. Frankly, how could they?

And of course, all of this means Biden's negatives aren't going to be the focus. He'll be able to run the basement campaign again, and it'll likely work again.

But again, we don't have to choose this dilemma. We could nominate a normal candidate who can run a real campaign, build a brand, and attack Biden where he's vulnerable and actually make those areas issues of importance. I'm losing faith that we will do that, but that's on us and our voters. If we choose Trump and lose in '24, I won't feel sympathy for our party or its voters. This shouldn't be a difficult call.
 
DeSantis shouldn't be in the running this year. His year would have been 2028. He needed to support Trump or whoever won in 2024 in order to shift them right. If Trump wins in 2024 then he is the up and comer who is a part of the movement. In my opinion he miscalculated. This may be the end for him as a Presidential candidate.

I think he is better than Trump in important areas and worse in others. If he could have added Trump's foreign policy to his willingness to use power domestically he could make big changes. He needs to strengthen Florida as a Red stronghold and show other governors how it's done.

Desantis ran because he was hot after his big reelection in one of the few states where the red wave actually showed up. He has already shown his to make a state a Republican stronghold. He has accomplished enough to justify running much like Bush did in 2000.

And why should Trump have repelled him? The guy who lost the previous election usually isn't supposed to be the presumed nominee the next time. In fact, he's almost always avoided. Nobody told John Kerry or Howard Dean to wait to see if Al Gore would run again in '04. I don't remember people thinking George H.W. Bush was entitled to the '96 GOP nomination. I don't remember people telling the other Democratic candidates to give Jimmy Carter another chance in 1984 or '88.

I think Desantis is running the worst presidential primary campaign I've ever seen, but he had every right to run. He has an excellent record on virtually every front, and there's no incumbent for the party. No one is entitled to the nomination, and it should be a completely open field.
 
I remember when Obama ran after being such a great governor of Illinois.

Oh, wait...maybe that only matters for (R)s.

It's not the only way to win, but it's a definite asset. Ask George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, FDR, Coolidge, Wilson, Teddy Roosevelt, and McKinley. They all leveraged successful governorships into the presidency.
 
Until Trump can improve his standing with Independents and professional women it is a hopeless cause. If every R votes for Trump and every d votes for Biden, Biden wins. The Independent vote is the key and Trump has burned the key box.
 
It's not the only way to win, but it's a definite asset. Ask George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, FDR, Coolidge, Wilson, Teddy Roosevelt, and McKinley. They all leveraged successful governorships into the presidency.
Interesting. I wouldn't know if the governors prior to Reagan were good governors or not. I have better things to do, such as staring at a wall for hours.

:fiestanana:
 
Interesting. I wouldn't know if the governors prior to Reagan were good governors or not. I have better things to do, such as staring at a wall for hours.

:fiestanana:

Successful doesn't necessarily mean good. It means they got elected and got things done. Voters (especially independents) like to see that. For most of them (including Reagan), there was probably some good and some bad.
 
Until Trump can improve his standing with Independents and professional women it is a hopeless cause. If every R votes for Trump and every d votes for Biden, Biden wins. The Independent vote is the key and Trump has burned the key box.

Not sure about professional women. They've been so corrupted by college indoctrination and feminist ideology that I don't think any Republican will do very well with them. Haley would do better than the others would for obvious reasons, but I don't think Desantis or Trump would do well with them.

The key is improving with married suburban women in general. That's the key to retaking Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
 
These kinds of acts show just how illusory democracy is.
It's worth noting that in Muslim countries it's not uncommon for introduction of Democracy to be swiftly followed by voters implementing an oppressive theocracy. Unless I'm misunderstanding my Republican friends, they are 100 percent OK with Trump implementing strongman government here, brushing by traditions like an independent attorney general.
 
I think Desantis is running the worst presidential primary campaign I've ever seen, but he had every right to run. He has an excellent record on virtually every front, and there's no incumbent for the party. No one is entitled to the nomination, and it should be a completely open field.

You're right. I just think he miscalculated. That's all.
 
It's worth noting that in Muslim countries it's not uncommon for introduction of Democracy to be swiftly followed by voters implementing an oppressive theocracy. Unless I'm misunderstanding my Republican friends, they are 100 percent OK with Trump implementing strongman government here, brushing by traditions like an independent attorney general.

The current administration is totalitarian and pay no attention to any tradition. They wield power nakedly both in the US and all over the world. I would much prefer a theocracy to what we have today.
 
It's worth noting that in Muslim countries it's not uncommon for introduction of Democracy to be swiftly followed by voters implementing an oppressive theocracy. Unless I'm misunderstanding my Republican friends, they are 100 percent OK with Trump implementing strongman government here, brushing by traditions like an independent attorney general.

Crock, I see very little evidence of either party being interested in following governing traditions, and I haven't seeen an independent attorney general in my adult life. Janet Reno was very partisan. John Ashcroft was less so but still pretty partisan. Alberto Gonzales might have been even more partisan than Reno. Michael Mukasey wasn't bad, but he wasn't AG for very long. Eric Holder, Loretta Lynch, and Merrick Garland are probably the most partisan AGs at least in my lifetime. Frankly, Jeff Sessions and William Barr were probably some of the fairer and least partisan AGs of the last few decades. (Of course, you'll notice that Trump hated both of them for their lack of partisanship.)
 

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