2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

LULZ. These pollsters were off 5% pts in 2020.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

So close!

 

[mchammer]

Very close in NV:

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Early voting in FL in line with Trump winning +9 or 10:

 

[mchammer]

 

[Horn6721]

I really do not get polls. The Fla poll to me looks like Demx is winning. What does the D +7 mean if it doesn't mean Demx +7?

 

[mchammer]

I really do not get polls. The Fla poll to me looks like Demx is winning. What does the D +7 mean if it doesn't mean Demx +7?

This is vote by mail only. Dem had +17% pt vote by mail ballot advantage in 2020, but Trump still won the election by +3% pt due to early vote and election day votes. So GOP is doing +10% pt better than last time for now.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

I really do not get polls. The Fla poll to me looks like Demx is winning. What does the D +7 mean if it doesn't mean Demx +7?

Again, these analysis of voter registration, vote by mail requests, vote by mail returns, early votes are attempts to measure turnout, not actual votes for Dem vs GOP.

 

[Horn6721]

mc
Thanks again. I won't ask anymore stupid questions.

 

[mchammer]

I really do not get polls. The Fla poll to me looks like Demx is winning. What does the D +7 mean if it doesn't mean Demx +7?

These are not polls. These are returned mail ballots. Again I think you are confused because each state does thing differently in terms of vote by mail, early voting, party registration, etc. In other words, each state is unique.

 

[mchammer]

mc
Thanks again. I won't ask anymore stupid questions.

Sometime I have to check to make sure what I am looking at as well. For example, I relearned that VA ballot data is modeled, not actual party split.

 

[mchammer]

GA list voters by race, not by party. Why? No idea.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

There are some recent polls that show Harris +4% pts but the two that I have seen are weighted +7 Dems. Ridiculous. Only 20 days left for this farce to end.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[Horn6721]

So with Harris showing plus 1 on Wisconsin she pulls out of Milwaukee to use funds in Philly?

 

[mchammer]

The theory here is that Harris is putting all her eggs in MI, PA, and GA.

 

[mchammer]

The theory here is that Harris is putting all her eggs in MI, PA, and GA.

Welp - not good for Harris:

 

[mchammer]