2022 House and Senate election

Mr. Deez said:
Though I'd vote for all four of them in the general election, Oz, Walker, Masters, and Boulduc are crap candidates, though I'll admit that Walker has gotten better and is the closest to shedding the crap label. To the extent that any of them win, it will be because the opposition sucked worse and that the current political environment is very favorable to the GOP.

Loefler was also a crap candidate, whose success was attributable only to her banging and marrying some rich old guy she worked for. McSally was a mediocre candidate - not good but not as bad as the others. However, both were running in much tougher political climates than any Republican in 2022 is, and McSally was up against opponents who were certainly stronger than Warnock and especially Fetterman. Mediocrity wasn't going to cut it. If she was running now instead of in '18 and '20, she'd almost surely win - not because she's very good but because in the current political environment, anything better than crap should win.
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Trafalgar has senate race in Washington as +2 Dem. If things continue this way, could be a 55-45 GOP senate.
 
What concerns me is the demx don't seem the least bit concerned about losing the house or senate. Just like 2020. They had no energy, no momentum, no sense of urgency. As if they knew it was in the bag (wink). Hope that isn't the case here
 
Horn2
I completely agree. Could they really cheat enough on so many levels?
Even in Dallas County there is investigation on why so many Demx versus Gop poll watchers have been approved
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
What concerns me is the demx don't seem the least bit concerned about losing the house or senate. Just like 2020. They had no energy, no momentum, no sense of urgency. As if they knew it was in the bag (wink). Hope that isn't the case here
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Half the Dem party wants to lose so they can attack the looney wing of their party.
 
mchammer said:
Stock market will not do well in October based on historical precedence. Another 10-20% drop is possible.
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Actually despite the several famous October stock market crashes, October is generally a good month for the market. The S&P has averaged a positive 0.9% return in October. September has historically been the worst month by far averaging a negative 0.5% return.

That said, the market could drop 10-20% in October for all I know.
 
UTChE96 said:
Actually despite the several famous October stock market crashes, October is generally a good month for the market. The S&P has averaged a positive 0.9% return in October. September has historically been the worst month by far averaging a negative 0.5% return.

That said, the market could drop 10-20% in October for all I know.
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I wished you told me that 3 weeks ago!!!!!
 
Mr. Deez said:
It's funny how these pollsters talk about it as a problem that's hard to fix. Somehow Robert Cahaly managed to never have the problem in the first place while most of these pollsters were laughing at him. He still got the '20 election wrong, but he was a hell of a lot closer than these people were.
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It's because they're push polls in effect. They trot out numbers showing Democrats with laughable leads (Wash Post had Depends up 17 in WI, he won by 0.5% via 3 AM Milwaukee ballot "counts"), to depress Republican turnout and donations.

And yet, next election, the media will again breathlessly trot out whatever poll shows a big lead for the candidates they all vote for and donate money too. A child could see through this charade.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
What concerns me is the demx don't seem the least bit concerned about losing the house or senate. Just like 2020. They had no energy, no momentum, no sense of urgency. As if they knew it was in the bag (wink). Hope that isn't the case here
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They're not worried because they know there's no big downside to a few years of the Republicans having more members caucus with them. I won't say control, as the Republican's never really control Congress, even if on paper they have more elected R's than the D's do.

The only exceptions to this are when the GOP is either pushing for Republican judges, which to McConnel's credit he did the same job as any Democrat could have done, or when they want to pass the true Holy Grain of the GOP - lower corporate tax rates.

For anything else, the Democrats still control congress. They won't get quite as many of their priorities passed when they are not in Speaker and Majority Leader of the Senate positions, but they still get more of their priorities passed than the GOP does.

Hell the GOP won't even pass a budget - instead they'll dither around, pass a few CR's, then pass via Democrat support a 3000 page Omnibus bill that gets pulled out seemingly thin air (it's been written behind the scenes all year with lobbyist, donor, and Democrat input) and presented to the Congress with 58 minutes to read it before it gets voted on.

I've seen this movie before, from 2011 to 2017.

With Democrats running Congress, you get Democrat polices. With Republicans "running" Congress, you get slightly fewer Democrat polices. One's a plane to Tijuana, the other is a bus. Either way you end up where you don't want to go.
 
Non-Trafalgar polls are coming in Dem +4 or +5 in GA, AZ, and PA. This means GOP is winning or tied most likely. This equates to 53-47 GOP senate.
 
Most of the polls are garbage, with easily checked and horrible accuracy levels. Yet every election they get trotted out and held up with the same worship as the 10 Commandments.

Here's but one of many examples from Texas. The UT Tyler polls are often used by media scum in this state. Here's one from Oct of 2020, of likely voters:

http://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/oct2020-lv-codebook-dmn-uttyler-poll.pdf

Biden 48%, Trump 45%. Trump won Texas 52 to 46.5 percent. So wrong outcome, and off by 7 percent. Just pitiful.

Then here's their poll of the Democrat primary in 2020.

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/codebook-dmn-uttyler-poll-february-2020-lv.pdf

Sanders 30%, Biden 20%. Biden won Texas 35 to 30% over Sanders. Again, wrong on outcome, and off by a whopping 15%.

And who do the media scum trout out for this election? If you guessed the same chumps who completely failed last cycle, you'd be right:

Latest UT Tyler/DMN poll shows Gov. Abbott’s lead widening over O’Rourke

If someone was giving out betting odds, and they always lost far more games than they won, would anyone still listen to them? Yet the same polling outfits who are consistently wrong suffer no feedback from it. Why?

If you guessed that their polls are fake, and are used by the media scum to help the candidates that they and the polling outfits vote for and donate money to, unlike the pollsters, you'd be correct.
 
It'll be close in that race - Oz is actually doing a good job as a candidate. He seemingly dropped off the map after the primary, but I later heard him on the Hannity show saying that he'd spent the time traveling to about every county in the state and meeting with local GOP officals, doing the groundwork needed to win the state, if you're not a brain dead Democrat who'll the media will try to drag over the finish line.

Main question for Oz is can he win by more than the margin of fraud. With vote-by-mail-fraud, as in 20, there will be days of counting if the race is close, and the Philly area, where some Democrat big wig just got sentenced to two years in the slammer for election fraud, will undoubtedly try to keep counting ballots that mysteriously go 100% to the Zombie.

Oz probably needs to win by 2 percent to avoid the Democrat machine thinking they can win this via fraud, and throws in the towel.
 
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I am watching this race and agree with DD. I just hope that Oz can overcome that lunatic Fetterman. Why would you vote for someone who wants to release 1/3 of convicts and eliminate fracking? That is a lot of jobs. Please spare me "New Green jobs". Does not work that way. You don't quickly move from one career field to another.
 
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Hope the GOP is working hard on "get out the vote" strategy. IMO, the midterm is there for the taking - House for sure, Senate in a close battle. It is critical that the GOP take control of Congress to slam the brakes on the Biden agenda.
 
HHD
I agree.
I know Collin County GOP is working hard on GOTV.
We have been block walking since mid July, even in the hottest weather.
It has to be done at block , house to house level.
Are you in Arlington?
I am sure the GOP there is doing the same thing.
And Would LOVE to have you volunteer with them, Especially now that it is cooler
OR they really need poll workers and watchers.
Tarrant county really needs people sweat equity help. Soros money poured into Tarrant in 16 and on
 
Horn6721 said:
If the choice for Nev Latinos is to vote Demx or stay home. Shame on the GOPin Nv for not going after them.
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“One of the factors likely contributing to negative sentiment was on display at a local laundromat in a Latino neighborhood here. On Spanish-language TV, ads pummeling Laxalt are on an aggressive rotation, a result of millions of dollars in spending by Democrats that began months ago.”
 
Horn6721 said:
If the choice for Nev Latinos is to vote Demx or stay home. Shame on the GOPin Nv for not going after them.
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By the time Laxalt emerged from his Republican primary in June, Cortez Masto, as well as outside Democratic groups led by the Somos PAC, had spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads, compared with $176,000 by Republicans. Cortez Masto’s campaign aired its first ad on Spanish-speaking TV on March 15 with a biographical spot outlining her family’s ties to Mexico.

Maria Hernandez, who worked at the Wash & Save Laundromat, looked up at a TV affixed high in the corner of the room.

“Ooh, I don’t like him,” she said. The ad playing on the screen was one of the senator’s that claims Laxalt had ties to “big oil.”
 
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