2022 House and Senate election
- Thread starter mchammer
- Start date
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Spitting distance for a push by Masters. I think that poll was by Emerson, who while not a joke like YouGov or the Marist (Marxist) ones, it's not good like Trafalgar or Rick Barris' are.
The winning or losing margin in AZ will be in the establishment GOP gets over their candidates not winning the primary. If they do what they always tell the base to do when their own candidates get the nomination (pull together, don't let your 80% friend be your 20% enemy, don't let C Schumer win!, the Democrats will pass lots of bad laws if they win!), and gets behind the GOP nominee, both Masters and Lake will win.
But usually GOP Inc. takes their ball and goes home when their candidates don't win the primary, and then call up Politico or the Hill and complains about how much a meanier the nominee is and how bad the candidate is, to 1. Try to get them to lose and thus maintain control of the party 2. To suck up to the media in returns for scraps of affection later.
The winning or losing margin in AZ will be in the establishment GOP gets over their candidates not winning the primary. If they do what they always tell the base to do when their own candidates get the nomination (pull together, don't let your 80% friend be your 20% enemy, don't let C Schumer win!, the Democrats will pass lots of bad laws if they win!), and gets behind the GOP nominee, both Masters and Lake will win.
But usually GOP Inc. takes their ball and goes home when their candidates don't win the primary, and then call up Politico or the Hill and complains about how much a meanier the nominee is and how bad the candidate is, to 1. Try to get them to lose and thus maintain control of the party 2. To suck up to the media in returns for scraps of affection later.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Establishment Republicans are a part of the Regime and enemies of the American people. Blake Master is great on all the issues that would make citizens lives better. But he doesn't go along with bureaucratic neo-liberal/con state, so they hate him.
We need to find a few Blake Masters in Texas to get conservatism/freedom out of the mud here.
We need to find a few Blake Masters in Texas to get conservatism/freedom out of the mud here.
One more month of this and Dems are doomed. Despite the happy talk, no relief in sight. Note only one more CPI print before the election and likely a very large Fed interest rate increase.
Biden Scrambles For Damage Control After Disastrous Inflation Report | ZeroHedge
Biden Scrambles For Damage Control After Disastrous Inflation Report | ZeroHedge
Speaking of damage...note the effect on the stock market so far today.
Insane that primaries run this late:
4 things to watch for on the final primary day of 2022 | CNN Politics
4 things to watch for on the final primary day of 2022 | CNN Politics
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
The problem is both Ds and Rs though. Trump and his advisers started this inflation in 2020. Electing establishment Rs and RINOs to Congress isn't going to do anything. You must find paleo-conservatives and libertarians to vote for regardless of what political party they are in.
Dems are in the midst of redefining words. They just did 'recession,' are working on 'woman', and have just added 'inflation' to the todo list.
Dems hope of easing inflation have been dashed (except maybe gasoline prices).
Watch Dem rhetoric heat up to get their folks to the polls. Likely too late now anyway.
Progressives, Journalists Worry: Are Polls Once Again Overestimating Democrats?
Watch Dem rhetoric heat up to get their folks to the polls. Likely too late now anyway.
Progressives, Journalists Worry: Are Polls Once Again Overestimating Democrats?
Thinking it likely doesn’t matter:
It's the grocery cart, stupid: Soaring food costs ominous for Dems, if GOP can seal deal with voters
In other NH news:
Who is Karoline Leavitt, the Gen Z Republican nominee from New Hampshire?
Maybe, but will our candidates be smart enough to exploit it? Or will they talk about the Mar-a-Lago raid and the 2020 election being stolen and let the Democrats have a pass on the issue? That is the reason they help these candidates win primaries.
Yes, she's hot.
Are they accounting for the late-race split amongst PA voters who now cannot decide on the lump of candidate that Fetterman is or the lump on the back of Fetterman's neck?
OH and NC are safe. NC can go Democratic but not in an off-year election with a weak Democrat in the White House, and particularly with a crummy candidate. I think Tim Ryan (D-OH) actually is a decent candidate, but his party has forced him to go left on social issues where he was once moderate to conservative. Even if he hadn't, I just don't think Ohio is very purple anymore.
I wouldn't call WI safe. It'll be close, because WI truly is purple. However, the Democrats nominated a hardcore leftist who will be easy to attack, and that should be enough for Johnson to survive. If they had nominated someone like Ohio Democrats nominated, then Johnson might have a tougher time.
I'm more confident about NV than I was before. I think Cortez-Masto is a strong incumbent, but we aren't putting crap on the ballot there like we are in a lot of states. We have a real nominee, and the state is clearly slipping away from the Democrats. I think they've said "Latinx" one too many times. Laxalt is already ahead in some polls, and he's likely not going down.
I think GA is starting to tip our way. Hershel has baggage, but he has been doing better lately. If he can keep from screwing up, I think he'll narrowly win. And Jeremiah Wright, Jr. is an awful candidate. He can't win GA without Trump's help.
As ****** as Oz is and as crappy of a campaign ad he's running, I think Fetterman is going to make it close. He's very hard-left, and the poor guy simply isn't in the condition to serve. I think the stroke really messed him up. The refusal to debate really looks bad, and it wouldn't shock me if by Election Day, he's promising to resign after taking office and letting the governor appoint a successor. This will go down to the wire.
AZ and NH? Still think the Democrats will hold those. They have pretty decent incumbents, and the GOP is divided and stuck with crappy nominees. They'll be close, but we're definitely not taking NH and probably not taking AZ.
McConnell is deliberately punting AZ by pulling ad dollars out of that State. Mitch is basically demanding that anyone the national GOP funds will kiss his ring while they, in turn, have said to kiss their collective a$$. The national GOP shows with each passing day that they do NOT have the best interest of the nation at heart...
Do you honestly think McConnell would rather continue as Minority Leader than see Masters win?
How else do you explain doing his best to kill the Masters campaign? WHY did he kill the spending for ad buys in AZ?
there is no way McConnell trades away a Senate Majority if he thinks it is achievable. He may be wrong, but it is almost a certainty that it comes down to his estimation of Masters' ability to win. With only 7 weeks left and about 6 seats that are +/- 2pts of winning, he is doing political math and putting the dollars where they might seem to do the most good.
I can see two very likely reasons. First, McConnell has limited resources and would rather put his money in more winnable races.
Second, Masters had two billionaires (Peter Thiel and Trump) supporting him in the primary. For some reason, they've basically stopped helping his general election campaign. McConnell could be expecting them to finish the job. If they don't, doesn't that make you wonder? Why show up for the primary and then walk away from the general election? That makes little sense unless they either just wanted to screw with Arizona Republicans and didn't care who ultimately won the seat or that they no longer see Masters as viable.
First, you might want to ask Peter Thiel and Trump why they're hanging him out to dry. It's almost as if they backed him mostly to **** with Mark Brnovich and Jim Lamon rather than to actually win the seat.
Second, I'm not sure why you view a guy who's now flip-flopping and scrubbed his website about abortion as the national test for whether or not the country is on the road to cultural and moral ruin. That sounds like something a fairly slimy and duplicitous politician would do.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Not aware of what is happening there.
Yes. That is a red flag. I don't like it. I only read his Twitter page. I really like what he says there.
It should make you wonder.
That's fine, but you shouldn't judge the electorate based on his success or failure. His Twitter page is obviously going to be entirely favorable to him.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
I don't know what happened.
It's all just him saying things. I did notice him softening on abortion a bit. He was solidly against abortion. Then a couple of weeks ago in a video said he was for restrictions on abortion, like after 12-15 weeks. That's better than nothing but a clear move.
Screwed up my estimate for Election Day. Can’t be on Nov 1. Earliest it can be is Nov 2. This year it is the latest it can be.
I think a two things are at play both related to rank media bias distorting their judgment as it often does. First, they think they have a major candidate advantage. Overall, they probably do have an advantage, but they overestimate it because the media always gushes over their candidates. For example, they thought Fetterman was great. They think he can win with blue collar voters because of his appearance and gruff style, but he actually comes across as weird and contrived (because he's actually a phony). Furthermore, if you're that hard left on social issues, you're not going to relate to blue collar voters even if you look the part. Same for Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin. Progressive media types think he's awesome, but can he really unseat an incumbent in a swing state? Very unlikely. In those states, the pre-2022 Tim Ryan should have been what they were looking for - a solid labor record but socially moderate and not quick to echo woke verbiage. If they had, Johnson would be in trouble, and Oz would have almost no chance.
Second, they are clearly banking on any sort of doubt on the '20 election to be toxic and a clear deal breaker to most voters - again, because to the media, it is a massive litmus test. If you sniff or blink your eyes a little off before you say Joe Biden was legitimately elected, the media will call you an election denier and smear you with January 6 rioters. I don't think voters will do that as easily.
I also think Democrats created a vulnerability by supporting many of these candidates in the primary because of overconfidence. For example, I don't think Boulduc has a chance in NH, but if Hassan tries to throw the '20 election at him, he has a pretty good retort if he's sharp enough to use it. "Senator, your party had no problem with my comments on the election when they helped me win my primary.". Anytime a Democrat brings that up, I'd massively throw that at them and argue that it's a diversion to avoid responsibility for their atrocious record on inflation, the border, and crackpot social agenda.
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