Money doesn't have anything to do with the opposition to the wall. It could be built for free, and the opposition to it would oppose it just as much.
2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence
- Thread starter ProdigalHorn
- Start date
Money doesn't have anything to do with the opposition to the wall. It could be built for free, and the opposition to it would oppose it just as much.
His career as a potential statewide elected official is dead unless he moves to another state.
My 2 pesos on the debate last night (and that's about what it's worth, depending on the exchange rate):
IMHO, Amy K came across as the responsible adult in the room at the Democratic debate last night. It was her best night. She held Warren's feet to the fire, and Liz didn't like it one bit. I could see her siphoning off support from other moderates and gaining quite a few of the undecideds. Once the luster washes off the lightweights (Beto, Castro, the new billionaire guy), she'll still be standing in a small group left as a viable alternative--I think. If Biden fades away (big "if" there), Amy K will be the go-to choice for the moderates to win the general election. If not, she'll look pretty good as a potential VP pick. To win the electoral college, the D's need to go all-out for the Big 10 country/Great Lakes region.
It's still real early. But for now, as I see it, the D's Final Four may be: Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, Buttigieg.
+ Sanders (who the Dems will never allow to win the nomination).
Sanders has his cult following, and absent his actual death, they're not going away.
IMHO, Amy K came across as the responsible adult in the room at the Democratic debate last night. It was her best night. She held Warren's feet to the fire, and Liz didn't like it one bit. I could see her siphoning off support from other moderates and gaining quite a few of the undecideds. Once the luster washes off the lightweights (Beto, Castro, the new billionaire guy), she'll still be standing in a small group left as a viable alternative--I think. If Biden fades away (big "if" there), Amy K will be the go-to choice for the moderates to win the general election. If not, she'll look pretty good as a potential VP pick. To win the electoral college, the D's need to go all-out for the Big 10 country/Great Lakes region.
It's still real early. But for now, as I see it, the D's Final Four may be: Biden, Warren, Klobuchar, Buttigieg.
+ Sanders (who the Dems will never allow to win the nomination).
Sanders has his cult following, and absent his actual death, they're not going away.
Warren again came across as deceitful and dishonest about whether she will or will not raise taxes on the middle class. She's hiding the ball. Not a good look. This will continue to dog her until she fesses up. She must think other people are stupid.
All she has to say is: "Yes, middle class taxes will go up, but for most middle class persons, the rise in taxes will be more than offset by the elimination of medical insurance premiums, copays, etc." She's too chickens#$& to come out and say it. She wants to avoid becoming another Dukakis, and it makes her look dishonest.
(Note, I'm not weighing in on whether her proposed single payer will provide roughly equivalent quality, or whether the numbers advertised really work or not. Those are separate questions.)
All she has to say is: "Yes, middle class taxes will go up, but for most middle class persons, the rise in taxes will be more than offset by the elimination of medical insurance premiums, copays, etc." She's too chickens#$& to come out and say it. She wants to avoid becoming another Dukakis, and it makes her look dishonest.
(Note, I'm not weighing in on whether her proposed single payer will provide roughly equivalent quality, or whether the numbers advertised really work or not. Those are separate questions.)
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
It's not like seizing guns by force is a new idea. I will leave it up to you to decide if there is any direct causal correlation in any of these examples --
In 1911, Turkey established gun control and then from 1915-17, ~1.5 million Armenians were rounded up and exterminated.
In 1929, the Soviet Union established gun control and then from 1929-53, about 20 million were rounded up, encamped and often exterminated by various means.
In 1935, China established strict gun control and then, from 1948-52, over 20 million human beings were rounded up and encamped where they died from murder, torture, starvation or simply worked to death.
In 1938, Germany established strict gun control and then, from 1939-45, about 13 million humans were rounded up and exterminated by various means.
In 1956, Cambodia established strict gun control and then from 1975-77, over 1M human beings were rounded up and exterminated
In 1964, Guatemala established strict gun control and then from 1964-1981, roughly 100,000 Mayans, were rounded up and murdered by various means.
In 1970, Uganda established strict gun control and then from 1971-79, roughly 300,000 Christians were rounded up and exterminated.
.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Biden is reaching his inevitable fade. He's dropping back to the pack at a minimum. That's evident from all the candidates universally attacking Warren. It's clear they all see her as the leader at this point. I'm not a fan of hers due to fiscal responsibility reasons but she handled the attacks fairly well.
My thoughts on the others:
Biden- Just treading water. He was meh. Not sure that performance stems Warren's rise or keeps Democrats from looking to another centris candidate.
Klobuchar- Her best debate yet but there is no cure for the HRC disease of zero charisma.
Buttigieg- The Centrist winner, IMHO. He's the candidate best positioned to fill the void of 'centrism' as Biden slides.
Sanders- Good energy, especially given the recent heart attack. Same talking points we've heard over and over. The AOC and crew endorsement gives him a bump over Warren but longterm that may help her tack to the middle if she's fortunate to win the nomination.
Harris- The attack on Warren regarding pushing Trump off Twitter was petty and made her look very small. She'll be out of the race by the second round of primary states.
Booker- Decent performance. Certainly better than Harris, but he'll continue to fall. Nothing noteworthy about his performance but I did notice that he went against the stream and pleaded for all the candidates to play nice, repeatedly.
Yang- What was up with the MATH lapel pin? Was he trying to play into the Asian stereotype? He made some very good points about the impact automation on job loss in manufacturing vs trade deals. It's been reported that Warren approached Yang after the debate asking for his data. I also like his reference to the 4th Industrial Revolution. He's a smart dude and I hope he stays in the debate at long as possible.
Beto- Who? Buttigieg made him look silly. I actually support the removal of assault weapons from civilian populations but Beto clearly can't sell the plan, if he has one.
Gabbard- My wife who doesn't follow politics asked "who is she" durig introductions. She had never heard of her. Given she barely made the cut for this debate she won't be standing on the stage in November.
Castro- When they scanned the crowd and saw Joaquin Castro my initial thought is that Julio was sitting in the audience for this debate. He may have been better off if he had.
Steyer- Surprised he made the debate stage. Money can buy a podium spot. He apparently outranked Gabbard and Castro which tells you the state of their campaigns. It was as if Steyer attended a different debate than the rest. Nobody addressed him and he didn't address anyone else. Every answer he stared at the camera as if he was giving a minority response to the State of the Nation address.
My thoughts on the others:
Biden- Just treading water. He was meh. Not sure that performance stems Warren's rise or keeps Democrats from looking to another centris candidate.
Klobuchar- Her best debate yet but there is no cure for the HRC disease of zero charisma.
Buttigieg- The Centrist winner, IMHO. He's the candidate best positioned to fill the void of 'centrism' as Biden slides.
Sanders- Good energy, especially given the recent heart attack. Same talking points we've heard over and over. The AOC and crew endorsement gives him a bump over Warren but longterm that may help her tack to the middle if she's fortunate to win the nomination.
Harris- The attack on Warren regarding pushing Trump off Twitter was petty and made her look very small. She'll be out of the race by the second round of primary states.
Booker- Decent performance. Certainly better than Harris, but he'll continue to fall. Nothing noteworthy about his performance but I did notice that he went against the stream and pleaded for all the candidates to play nice, repeatedly.
Yang- What was up with the MATH lapel pin? Was he trying to play into the Asian stereotype? He made some very good points about the impact automation on job loss in manufacturing vs trade deals. It's been reported that Warren approached Yang after the debate asking for his data. I also like his reference to the 4th Industrial Revolution. He's a smart dude and I hope he stays in the debate at long as possible.
Beto- Who? Buttigieg made him look silly. I actually support the removal of assault weapons from civilian populations but Beto clearly can't sell the plan, if he has one.
Gabbard- My wife who doesn't follow politics asked "who is she" durig introductions. She had never heard of her. Given she barely made the cut for this debate she won't be standing on the stage in November.
Castro- When they scanned the crowd and saw Joaquin Castro my initial thought is that Julio was sitting in the audience for this debate. He may have been better off if he had.
Steyer- Surprised he made the debate stage. Money can buy a podium spot. He apparently outranked Gabbard and Castro which tells you the state of their campaigns. It was as if Steyer attended a different debate than the rest. Nobody addressed him and he didn't address anyone else. Every answer he stared at the camera as if he was giving a minority response to the State of the Nation address.
The Democrats are toast without the Big 10/Great Lakes states. They can't win without them. Even if the Dems cede Indiana and even Ohio, if they sweep Penn, Mich, Wisc, and Minn, then Trump likely goes down. Florida's always tight as well.
I give some credence to your map and model. Despite all this impeachment-related stuff going on, and some questionable foreign policy decisions, Trump's still the man to beat. Barring a significant economic downturn, he's still the odds on favorite.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
He's likely realized he has no shot at POTUS but knows someone on that stage may have influence on his political aspirations thus didn't want to upset anyone.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
You would think they would discuss issues important to those voters in the debates (esp Ohio since that is where they were), but IIRC they lead off with IMPEACHMENT! Which I dont think is the big issue for these voters
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
The Republican party has a real opportunity to solidify themselves as the party of the working class (of all races). If they can do that post-Trump, they will enjoy national success.
The key though for me is to show that freedom and small government will deliver the working class's interests. If not, we just get 80s Democrats vs Communists.
The key though for me is to show that freedom and small government will deliver the working class's interests. If not, we just get 80s Democrats vs Communists.
I like that, dude.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Conservatives continue to hope and urge HRC to run on the Democratic ticket.
Ben Shapiro: Now's the time for Hillary Clinton to jump in and steal the nomination
Ben Shapiro: Now's the time for Hillary Clinton to jump in and steal the nomination
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Yeah. Conservatives want HRC because clearly she didn't energize the Democratic base, twice. The base was extremely energized in 2018. D leadership is hoping that trend continues into 2020 so the answer is to recruit the candidate that depresses base turnout? That only make sense for Republicans.
I think Buttigieg may slip in to steal the nomination as the Centrist candidate.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
As someone who was in the anyone but Trump club in 2016 and running for President of the club in 2020, I'd happily take Buttigieg over Warren at this point. I have concerns over Biden's age. He's not as sharp or witty as he was even while running for the Dem nomination in 2008.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
With Trump's hand around the throat of the RNC, the only way a viable Republican candidate jumps in is if he loses impeachment in the Senate.
For Dems only Michelle Obama could jump in and have any measurable impact.
Any viable independents have already fallen by the way side.
LongestHorn
2,500+ Posts
Bigots in Dallas?
Give me a shout out when Trump supporters start violence.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Yeah, I think you must have to have some type of defect to see equivalency there. Four dudes accused of unpopular speech versus people wearing masks committing criminal assaults and throwing bombs. In fact, I am not even sure he sees equivalency. I suspect he thinks that people who say things he does not like are actually worse than his people who beat the crap out of elderly Americans (as long as they are white). The only thing that matters to these people is which side are you on? Examples abound - Harvey Weinstein, Matt Lauer, Kevin Spacey, Bill Clinton .....
By coincidence of timing, we have more of them tonight Man With Gun Wearing Helmet Arrested Outside Trump Rally
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