2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

[Mr. Deez]

Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats | The American Spectator | Politics Is Too Important To Be Taken Seriously.

I'm dizzy from all that spin. Lol. Frame it how you want, but if we were 2 points away from flipping a D+9 district, we wouldn't say the GOP should be worried.

White suburbia voting for end of their healthcare and other loony **** is not going to happen. The D in this race ran as a moderate. Good for him, but that is not going to be the case at top of ticket.

Joe Biden isn't going to run as a socialist. He's going to run as a moderate like he always has.

 

[Monahorns]

I think the greater issue for Republicans is that they are still seen as the establishment and don't run on anything that inspires people to vote.

Right now Republicans are basically Democrats-lite. They give you partially government run healthcare not increasing choice and efficiency. They give you "common sense" gun control instead of gun bans. They increase government spending a little bit less than but they still want the DC parasite to grow. They won't stand up and get the Deep State and military establishment out of empire building.

The problem isn't Trump. The problem is Republicans aren't for anything the people are really for. Freedom. Limited Government. Private Property Rights. Economic Opportunity.

 

[Joe Fan]

Smoke a joint on stage?

Maybe we will pick someone in the audience and give then $1000/month for life?

 

[Mr. Deez]

I thought suburbians were somewhat intelligent. Why would Trump being President cause them to not vote for other Republicans? Did the Republican in NC District 9 act like Trump or something? I don't get it.

They are educated. It doesn't mean they're intelligent or wise. Things like branding and tone still influence them just like anybody else.

 

[Garmel]

Murphy defeated Thomas 62 percent to 38 percent in the other election(3rd district), which exactly matches the R+24. However, this area has very little in the way of suburbs. On the other hand, you have to remember that the 9th's race was probably marred by voter fraud done by republicans in the last election. It's really hard to come to a definite conclusion in any direction.

 

[mchammer]

I'm dizzy from all that spin. Lol. Frame it how you want, but if we were 2 points away from flipping a D+9 district, we wouldn't say the GOP should be worried.



Joe Biden isn't going to run as a socialist. He's going to run as a moderate like he always has.

You’ve been out of the country too long. Recent article saying he is more left than hillary.

 

[Mr. Deez]

You’ve been out of the country too long. Recent article saying he is more left than hillary.

He might be on some issues, but that isn't the perception. Furthermore, that isn't his brand. People don't vote on policy. They vote on branding and perception.

 

[mchammer]

He might be on some issues, but that isn't the perception. Furthermore, that isn't his brand. People don't vote on policy. They vote on branding and perception.

Dems are nearing a committee vote on impeachment, so I read. Joe has no game anyway. Dems want to lose respectively instead of crash and burn.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Murphy defeated Thomas 62 percent to 38 percent in the other election(3rd district), which exactly matches the R+24. However, this area has very little in the way of suburbs. On the other hand, you have to remember that the 9th's race was probably marred by voter fraud done by republicans in the last election. It's really hard to come to a definite conclusion in any direction.

You make a solid point, but this problem exists outside of that congressional district. That could explain away almost losing that seat, but how do we explain losing the seats in Dallas, Houston, Orange County, CA, etc.?

 

[Horn6721]

IIRC Dallas hasn't had a GOP Rep in nearly 20 years.
Don't know about Houston
Ballot harvesting in Orange county affected those seats.

 

[Garmel]

You make a solid point, but this problem exists outside of that congressional district. That could explain away almost losing that seat, but how do we explain losing the seats in Dallas, Houston, Orange County, CA, etc.?

Suburban voters are the well-educated, which means they've spent time in a college which may have warped their views toward liberalism. I'm willing to bet most young suburbanites are blue. It just might not be a demographic we can rely upon any more. It also could be that the incumbent just can't win during the midterms. As you said, it also could be Trump or a combination of all three. Time will tell.

 

[mchammer]

Suburban voters are the well-educated, which means they've spent time in a college which may have warped their views toward liberalism. I'm willing to bet most young suburbanites are blue. It just might not be a demographic we can rely upon any more. It also could be that the incumbent just can't win during the midterms. As you said, it also could be Trump or a combination of all three. Time will tell.

Trump and Senate candidates in statewide races did okay in 2018.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I think the greater issue for Republicans is that they are still seen as the establishment and don't run on anything that inspires people to vote.

Right now Republicans are basically Democrats-lite. They give you partially government run healthcare not increasing choice and efficiency. They give you "common sense" gun control instead of gun bans. They increase government spending a little bit less than but they still want the DC parasite to grow. They won't stand up and get the Deep State and military establishment out of empire building.

The problem isn't Trump. The problem is Republicans aren't for anything the people are really for. Freedom. Limited Government. Private Property Rights. Economic Opportunity.

That's a very self-serving narrative that simply isn't logical for two reasons. First, congressional Republicans basically stand for the same policy agenda they stood for in previous elections (like 2016, 2014, 2012, etc.). In those elections, they mostly coasted to easy victory in the suburbs. There hasn't been a major shift in either direction.

Second, it just doesn't add up. The GOP candidates don't take an adequately conservative or hard line stance on the issues, so these suburbanites go vote for Democrats who are well to their left? Not buying it. It makes no sense at all.

However, at the same time that these same candidates running on the same agenda and in the same districts that they always have suddenly start having trouble, somebody jumps into the party and takes a massive dump on their brand. I have a hard time accepting that this was just coincidence and has nothing to do with those candidates having a hard time.

 

[mchammer]

That's a very self-serving narrative that simply isn't logical for two reasons. First, congressional Republicans basically stand for the same policy agenda they stood for in previous elections (like 2016, 2014, 2012, etc.). In those elections, they mostly coasted to easy victory in the suburbs. There hasn't been a major shift in either direction.

Second, it just doesn't add up. The GOP candidates don't take an adequately conservative or hard line stance on the issues, so these suburbanites go vote for Democrats who are well to their left? Not buying it. It makes no sense at all.

However, at the same time that these same candidates running on the same agenda and in the same districts that they always have suddenly start having trouble, somebody jumps into the party and takes a massive dump on their brand. I have a hard time accepting that this was just coincidence and has nothing to do with those candidates having a hard time.

Turnout difference between the parties in a low turnout election is likely the bigger culprit here.

 

[Mr. Deez]

IIRC Dallas hasn't had a GOP Rep in nearly 20 years.

Not so. Dallas County is broken up into five congressional districts. Lance Gooden and Kenny Marchant are both Republicans. Collin Allred, Eddie Bernice Johnson, and Marc Veasey are Democrats who represent the rest of Dallas County. Veasey and Johnson have racially gerrymandered districts. Nobody expects the GOP to compete in those. However, Allred's district and Marchant's districts are classic suburban areas that Republicans should be able win pretty comfortably. Obviously, Allred defeated Sessions, and Marchant barely held on, and his opponent wasn't that strong. Gooden's district is solid mostly because he has some rural counties that keep it safe.

The really dramatic drop-off is in the Texas House, where the GOP doesn't benefit from exurbs and rural areas because the districts are smaller. When I worked at the Capitol back in the late '90s, there were 8 Republican state representatives from Dallas County (Ray Allen, Joe Driver, Kenn George, Tony Goolsby (whom I still haven't forgiven for falling over drunk onto a bus boy at the 1999 sine die party and making him drop a tray of dirty drink glasses onto me ruining my suit), Will Hartnett, Fred Hill, Elvira Reyna, and Kenny Marchant). Today, the GOP has two members from Dallas County - Angie Chen Button (took over for Fred Hill) and Morgan Meyer (took over for Dan Branch, who took over for Kenn George). And both Meyer (50.1 percent) and Button (51.0 percent) barely held on and could easily lose in 2020.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Turnout difference between the parties in a low turnout election is likely the bigger culprit here.

You'll do anything not to admit that Trump is a liability in the suburbs. Low turnout is an excuse when you lose purple districts. It's not an excuse when you lose red districts.

 

[Monahorns]

It doesn't mean they're intelligent or wise.

Then we are screwed either way.

 

[Monahorns]

Deez, low turnout was what I was going to say too. At least a factor. If they are voting D because Trump even though before Trump they voted R, then they are voting based on who Trevor Noah tells them to now not based on policy or even branding. The Ds they are voting for are despicable people too. But not to CNN. According to media they are the kindest of souls.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Deez, low turnout was what I was going to say too. At least a factor. If they are voting D because Trump even though before Trump they voted R, then they are voting based on who Trevor Noah tells them to now not based on policy or even branding. The Ds they are voting for are despicable people too. But not to CNN. According to media they are the kindest of souls.

They don't watch Trevor Noah and only passively watch CNN from time to time, and CNN and the entire media has always told them to vote Democratic. That's nothing new. They are voting for the candidates and party they feel good about and identify with. They don't identity with Trump and don't feel good voting for a party that supports him.

What we're missing is advocacy. We used to actually work to persuade people to embrace conservatism. We largely don't do that anymore.

 

[Horn6721]

MrD
I didn't see the word county after Dallas so thought you meant the city of Dallas
Well since you mentioned Houston as well and not Harris county
so I think you can see where my logic came from.

 

[Joe Fan]

The old hot mic as the rare source of honesty with these people

 

[mchammer]

You'll do anything not to admit that Trump is a liability in the suburbs. Low turnout is an excuse when you lose purple districts. It's not an excuse when you lose red districts.

There is no contrast to push a vote towards Trump.

 

[Mr. Deez]

MrD
I didn't see the word county after Dallas so thought you meant the city of Dallas
Well since you mentioned Houston as well and not Harris county
so I think you can see where my logic came from.

I can see that, but do keep in mind that like most big cities, Dallas (the city as well as the county) is broken up into several districts. The members I listed represented parts of the city.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Suburban voters are the well-educated, which means they've spent time in a college which may have warped their views toward liberalism. I'm willing to bet most young suburbanites are blue. It just might not be a demographic we can rely upon any more.

This is undoubtedly true, and it warps people's views toward conservatism. Link. However, we need to reverse that. We need to make a coordinated effort to get conservatives into higher education. We can't let them be leftist reeducation camps, which is what they're very fast becoming. As much as the Right has mostly liked Greg Abbott and Rick Perry, neither of them were good on higher education. They largely trusted the issue to establishment figures, which means letting the career leftists have their way. That needs to change.

In the short and medium term, we need to start advocating conservatism. We don't really do that anymore, and that needs to change. I don't mean cheerleading. We have plenty of publications and people who do that. I mean actually advocating and persuading people who aren't conservatives to accept the conservative policy agenda, and that means being able to talk to them.

The reality is that we can't afford to lose the suburbs. Saying "we can't rely on them any more" isn't an answer we can accept. That is how states turn blue. It's how we lost California. When the GOP was winning California, it was losing but not getting completely destroyed in the big cities and decisively winning the suburbs and rural areas. For example, in 1988 Bush got 46.8 percent in Los Angeles County and 26 percent in San Francisco County. He got 68 percent in Orange County. First, the cities turned from defeats into routs. That made the state purple. Then the suburbs became almost split. That made the state blue. Now the suburbs lean blue, and that's the end of the GOP in California.

The same trend is starting in Texas. Dallas and Houston are turning into Democratic strongholds. The suburbs still lean red, so we can still win statewide. However, that's changing, and if we let them go much further, the state is lost. Collin County almost elected two Democratic state representatives in 2018, which would have been unthinkable just recently. You warned me about that last year, and I didn't believe you. You were right.

It also could be that the incumbent just can't win during the midterms. As you said, it also could be Trump or a combination of all three. Time will tell.

To be clear, it's not all Trump. The problem is deeper than Trump. If it was just Trump, then the GOP would have been competitive in California 8 years ago, and it obviously was not. Trump is simply accelerating and aggravating a problem that already existed.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

We need to make a coordinated effort to get conservatives into higher education. We can't let them be leftist reeducation camps, which is what they're very fast becoming.

Nailed it!

 

[Garmel]

This is undoubtedly true, and it warps people's views toward conservatism. Link. However, we need to reverse that. We need to make a coordinated effort to get conservatives into higher education. We can't let them be leftist reeducation camps, which is what they're very fast becoming. As much as the Right has mostly liked Greg Abbott and Rick Perry, neither of them were good on higher education. They largely trusted the issue to establishment figures, which means letting the career leftists have their way. That needs to change.

We need to but it will be difficult because leftists run conservative professors off campus, especially if they are outspoken.

 

[mchammer]

You'll do anything not to admit that Trump is a liability in the suburbs. Low turnout is an excuse when you lose purple districts. It's not an excuse when you lose red districts.

The “competition”:
Biden's "Record Player" Moment In Response To Slavery Question Stirs Outrage

 

[Monahorns]

We need to but it will be difficult because leftists run conservative professors off campus, especially if they are outspoken.

Yes they do. Case par excellence is Michael Rectenwald. He wasn't even a conservative just an ex-Marxist.

 

[Mr. Deez]

The “competition”:
Biden's "Record Player" Moment In Response To Slavery Question Stirs Outrage

He looked bad, but it's not relevant.

 

[Mr. Deez]

We need to but it will be difficult because leftists run conservative professors off campus, especially if they are outspoken.

They need to wait until they have tenure before being outspoken. Once that happens, they can sue if they get shitcanned or "run off."

They also need to ally with intellectuals who aren't necessarily conservative but who believe in free speech, thought, and inquiry - guys like Eric Weinstein, Sam Harris, and the other intellectual dark web people. (I'm a big fan of the IDW and quillette people.)