2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence
- Thread starter ProdigalHorn
- Start date
Hope his coattails are long enough for Martha McSally to grab onto - that would be great to have the GOP win that Senate seat.
Or NV and NH combined.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Couple of polls here:
Same group who got MI right last time.
And PA:
Marist is so bad I call it the Marxist poll. Shows a tie in AZ so President Trump must be up by 2-4.
Same group who got MI right last time.
And PA:
Marist is so bad I call it the Marxist poll. Shows a tie in AZ so President Trump must be up by 2-4.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Never, ever, believe a poll from Quinnipia again
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Florida's early voting period is about over, and it was a disaster for the Democrats.
Were ahead in 2016 by 96k votes, this time maybe 120k, with a million (!) new residents since then. Plus heavy, heavy D pressure to vote early and by mail.
R turnout will overwhelm the D's tomorrow - only shot is a huge swing in votes from Republicans themselves. Little evidence of any rebellion by them against President Trump.
Unlike knowing how to weight a poll of men/women/whites/black/one-legged lesbian Eskimos, etc., it's pretty easy to figure out support levels of by party for their candidate. President Trump has very high approval ratings by R's - hard to see them then voting against him.
Were ahead in 2016 by 96k votes, this time maybe 120k, with a million (!) new residents since then. Plus heavy, heavy D pressure to vote early and by mail.
R turnout will overwhelm the D's tomorrow - only shot is a huge swing in votes from Republicans themselves. Little evidence of any rebellion by them against President Trump.
Unlike knowing how to weight a poll of men/women/whites/black/one-legged lesbian Eskimos, etc., it's pretty easy to figure out support levels of by party for their candidate. President Trump has very high approval ratings by R's - hard to see them then voting against him.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
The FBI would investigate it, but someone deep down in Texas there's a bumper that has a crack in it.
4th_floor
Dude, where's my laptop?
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
OK, let's talk about what to watch for tomorrow, with the given the the media is going to be crooked as usual, and unlike in 16, they know Trump can win.
Maine and NH are good indicators early. Trump won the upstate district last time, and needs to do so again, both as a sign that his rural base is powering the vote, and in case it gets to a squeaker election where that 1 EV may make the difference.
He doesn't need NH, and probably won't win it, but it should be competitive. It was very close in 16 (2k votes), and was close in 04 as well. A blowout here brings less confidence in other areas.
PA of course, but it won't be called for Trump except in a huge, huge blowout, and probably not even then. Wasn't called until midnight or so last time, and there's all the vote by mail fraud aspect this time.
Which brings up another point - expect early calls for Slow Joe, and never calls for Trump, in an attempt to depress Trump turnout in other areas. Even Twitter and Facebook posts will be censored, from those actually crunching numbers, as they will not be considered among the anointed experts, blessed by the media. They may have to use code words, like in any other 3rd world dictatorship, to get the word out. "Florida lives in a red house", so to speak.
FLA should come in quick, and it's not corrupt like PA or MI, and it should be a crushing defeat for Slow Joe. The media will try to avoid calling it, but unless there's dramatic support for Slow Joe by registered R's, it's going to be a 3-4 point win for President Trump.
Now conversely, if there's honest data about FLA being close, or a Biden lead, it's bad news for Trump - he doesn't mathematically need FLA EV's, but it's a great indicator of the country, and hard to see the Midwest states going Trump if Florida does not.
In the scenario that Florida is called, expect some dry throats among the media swine - there's an awesome clip when Andrea Mitchel had to report Florida going to Trump in 16. But they'll all get the order in their earpiece to stop crying and put on a happy face, suddenly discounting Florida (it's his home state, was always a stretch for Biden, not needed, etc).
GA should come next - various leftist fantasies have it going for Slow Joe. Hard to see that when it didn't for Obama, but then Obama didn't have the 15 point lead that the fixed polls claim Biden has. Should be an easy win for Trump - as in Florida if it's really not (and based on right leaning analysts, not some talking head looking at early returns and making a guess), then it does mean that a large amount of R's have turned against Trump, despite no evidence of that.
Then the Midwest. Those states will be close, and I don't mean Ohio and Iowa which should be easy wins. I mean PA - MI - WI - and MN. Lots of vote by mail fraud aspects here, ballots can come in about 3-1/2 years after the election, etc. so these won't be called by the media for days. The contest then will shift to if the Democrats can fabricate enough votes in that period to overcome Trump's lead. They can't cheat if it's not close, as is said, so the lead at the end of election night will be key.
A Biden win would be called in about 1.2 seconds after random chicken bones predict it - a Trump win will take days if not weeks to be called.
Best thing to do is to vote, get others to vote if they have a brain too, then not watch anything for a few days. It'll all be dis-information ops to make it look like Slow Joe has a chance via mail fraud ballots.
Maine and NH are good indicators early. Trump won the upstate district last time, and needs to do so again, both as a sign that his rural base is powering the vote, and in case it gets to a squeaker election where that 1 EV may make the difference.
He doesn't need NH, and probably won't win it, but it should be competitive. It was very close in 16 (2k votes), and was close in 04 as well. A blowout here brings less confidence in other areas.
PA of course, but it won't be called for Trump except in a huge, huge blowout, and probably not even then. Wasn't called until midnight or so last time, and there's all the vote by mail fraud aspect this time.
Which brings up another point - expect early calls for Slow Joe, and never calls for Trump, in an attempt to depress Trump turnout in other areas. Even Twitter and Facebook posts will be censored, from those actually crunching numbers, as they will not be considered among the anointed experts, blessed by the media. They may have to use code words, like in any other 3rd world dictatorship, to get the word out. "Florida lives in a red house", so to speak.
FLA should come in quick, and it's not corrupt like PA or MI, and it should be a crushing defeat for Slow Joe. The media will try to avoid calling it, but unless there's dramatic support for Slow Joe by registered R's, it's going to be a 3-4 point win for President Trump.
Now conversely, if there's honest data about FLA being close, or a Biden lead, it's bad news for Trump - he doesn't mathematically need FLA EV's, but it's a great indicator of the country, and hard to see the Midwest states going Trump if Florida does not.
In the scenario that Florida is called, expect some dry throats among the media swine - there's an awesome clip when Andrea Mitchel had to report Florida going to Trump in 16. But they'll all get the order in their earpiece to stop crying and put on a happy face, suddenly discounting Florida (it's his home state, was always a stretch for Biden, not needed, etc).
GA should come next - various leftist fantasies have it going for Slow Joe. Hard to see that when it didn't for Obama, but then Obama didn't have the 15 point lead that the fixed polls claim Biden has. Should be an easy win for Trump - as in Florida if it's really not (and based on right leaning analysts, not some talking head looking at early returns and making a guess), then it does mean that a large amount of R's have turned against Trump, despite no evidence of that.
Then the Midwest. Those states will be close, and I don't mean Ohio and Iowa which should be easy wins. I mean PA - MI - WI - and MN. Lots of vote by mail fraud aspects here, ballots can come in about 3-1/2 years after the election, etc. so these won't be called by the media for days. The contest then will shift to if the Democrats can fabricate enough votes in that period to overcome Trump's lead. They can't cheat if it's not close, as is said, so the lead at the end of election night will be key.
A Biden win would be called in about 1.2 seconds after random chicken bones predict it - a Trump win will take days if not weeks to be called.
Best thing to do is to vote, get others to vote if they have a brain too, then not watch anything for a few days. It'll all be dis-information ops to make it look like Slow Joe has a chance via mail fraud ballots.
Last edited:
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Watch out DC, the Amish are coming to town:
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Why not all?
CO is gone, once you go all vote by mail fraud, it's no longer who votes, it's who counts the votes.
The other's are doable. I'd say likelihood in decreasing order is MI, PA, WI, MN, NV and NH.
With WI or MN, would need both single EV's (Maine's and Nebraska's) to get to 270.
My chicken bone prediction - same as 2016. PA could be ugly for weeks if it's needed, but hopefully won't be. My general feeling on PA is that it's along for the ride, but never drives - it'll never push you over the top by itself (see 2000 or 2004), but will come along with others as in 2016.
MN will be oh so close, but probably just a bit too far out of reach. Maybe a Senate pickup in this case as maybe Karen's in the suburbs split a few votes, but probably not. Imagine the disappointment for them on tomorrow's National Propaganda Radio?
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Did somebody say crack?
As they say, sucking the glass dick.
"Face sucked in, yellow toothed grin, no ******* no friends no ends to spend".
Does plywood not burn in the Northeast?
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Speculation on the sequence of events to follow:
1. Biden wins
2. After election, media turns on Biden. Behind the scene, Clinton and her Deep State buddies make sure the Biden corruption is fully exposed.
3. Biden resigns. All is forgotten.
4. President Harris names Hillary Vice President.
5. The coup is complete.
1. Biden wins
2. After election, media turns on Biden. Behind the scene, Clinton and her Deep State buddies make sure the Biden corruption is fully exposed.
3. Biden resigns. All is forgotten.
4. President Harris names Hillary Vice President.
5. The coup is complete.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
If Trump gets New Hampshire, to go with TX, FL, GA, OH, NC, IA and AZ (which all seem likely), then he can get to 270 with just Wisconsin OR just Minnesota
With NH, he can get there without Penn, without Michigan and without one of either Wisc or Minn. That would be wild
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Obama, BLM and Antifa have done more for the gun & ammo industry than anyone else in the history of the earth
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
"The Trump campaign, exuding eleventh-hour confidence, is revealing raw voter data that suggests to it that Joe Biden’s lead in early voting will be swamped by a red wave of GOP voters on Election Day.
“In a lot of places across the country, Election Day is going to look like a Trump rally,” said Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy...."
“In a lot of places across the country, Election Day is going to look like a Trump rally,” said Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy...."
GOP GOTV set to swamp Biden lead, 'Election Day to look like a Trump rally’
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