2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

[Joe Fan]

This entire election will primarily come down to R-voter turnout on election day
It becomes a math equation
Actual numbers have to match projected numbers
If they do, then Trump wins.
But if a big chunk of them already early voted, then it will be an issue.

IMO, the other interesting areas to watch will be --
(a) The cross-overs. How many registered Dems voted for Trump. How much inroad did Trump actually make into the black and hispanic communities. Right now, all models assume less than 10% cross-over. But it's going to be higher than that. By how much? If Trump gets 15-20% of the black vote, this will be huge. Was this a permanent change? Can future Rs hold onto the opportunity Trump has created?
(b) The NPAs. Where did the non-affiliated vote go? All election prediction models assume this vote breaks 50/50. But that's not going to be correct this election either.
(c) What will the much talked about youth vote turn out to be? I am willing to bet they underperform expectations this election. No waves of college kids herded in groups across campus and forced to vote at the main building. Plus, I just find it close to impossible that Joe Biden could excite young people.

 

[Joe Fan]

Virginia
This state is actually within reach for Trump
The youth vote is underperforming
The black vote is underperforming + Trump is getting a % of that turnout
The rural white vote is overperforming, especially the non-college, white, 50+ years demographic
Add it all up and Trump is within range

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[theiioftx]

So, you didn't end up like this?

More like this.

 

[Joe Fan]

Why would the BLM try to stop black people from voting?...

BC people like Clyburn and Waters are desperate over election day turnout. They got a bunch of worried phone calls. "Do something!", "That's what we are paying you for!"
But what could they do? This is the best their brainstorming could come up with

 

[bystander]

I work very hard. My lifestyle revolves around my career.

I voted early. I voted on a Saturday. Why is it that so many people can't get it together?

'We're not backing down': Amazon workers want paid time off to vote in 2020 elections

 

[Joe Fan]

IMO, the other interesting areas to watch will be --
(a) The cross-overs. How many registered Dems voted for Trump. How much inroad did Trump actually make into the black and hispanic communities. Right now, all models assume less than 10% cross-over. But it's going to be higher than that. By how much? If Trump gets 15-20% of the black vote, this will be huge. Was this a permanent change? Can future Rs hold onto the opportunity Trump has created?....

 

[bystander]

Newsmax is a right-wing site. No doubt about it. Scroll down and you'll see poll results that overwhelmingly predict a Biden victory:

Newsmax.com - Breaking news from around the globe

 

[theiioftx]

I find the whole voter suppression discussion silly and a subversion of the republic. I’m amazed how many people are helpless to get an ID, register or get to the polls. It is just a Democrat talking point to explain why they lose versus running respectable candidates.

 

[horninchicago]

Tweet has been taking down. What did it say?

It was a video of BLM people blocking other people from voting.

 

[Joe Fan]

Wisconsin
Trump won 60 counties in his "upset" in Wisc in 2016
Those same 60 counties are significantly overperforming in early voting in 2020
Trump looks good here

Democrats Appear to be Struggling in Wisconsin Early Voting | News/Talk 1130 WISN

 

[bystander]

I find the whole voter suppression discussion silly and a subversion of the republic. I’m amazed how many people are helpless to get an ID, register or get to the polls. It is just a Democrat talking point to explain why they lose versus running respectable candidates.

No matter your politics, this speech is damn amazing... I think I queued it up to the point:

Bothering to register and bothering to vote.

Rocks just laying around.

 

[Joe Fan]

Newsmax is a right-wing site. No doubt about it. Scroll down and you'll see poll results that overwhelmingly predict a Biden victory:
Newsmax.com - Breaking news from around the globe

Media polls dont produce accurate forecasts
Big turnout today and Trump wins. And the weather is good across the country

 

[mchammer]

Let's be honest. Everybody is sweating. You don't let on, but your taint is sweating so much you can't walk straight.

Not really. Repeat of 2016 plus or minus 3 states. Trump has to lose 3 states to lose reelection. We’ll have a good idea in 12 hours.

 

[mchammer]

Let's be honest. Everybody is sweating. You don't let on, but your taint is sweating so much you can't walk straight.

This is exactly where I thought we would be at this point. What i didn’t expect was the media to cover it up until the last weekend. Trump should have been portrayed as competitive based on polling since Labor Day.

 

[Joe Fan]

Arizona
This is from local news in Phoenix
Maricopa County (the big one) Early Vote going into Election Day

Total: 1,681,264
R: 641,755
D: 590,115
O: 449,394

AZ06 R +37,144
LD17 R +5,033
LD20 R +1,309
LD21 R +9,084
LD23 R +23,115
LD28 D +1,333​

See https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer

 

[mchammer]

Trump ahead in Nevada by .7

Note I called this long time ago, thinking NV was vulnerable. We’ll see

 

[mchammer]

Virginia
This state is actually within reach for Trump
The youth vote is underperforming
The black vote is underperforming + Trump is getting a % of that turnout
The rural white vote is overperforming, especially the non-college, white, 50+ years demographic
Add it all up and Trump is within range

Likely 1-2% short in my opinion but would be very embarrassing for Dems to lose VA.

 

[mchammer]

I find the whole voter suppression discussion silly and a subversion of the republic. I’m amazed how many people are helpless to get an ID, register or get to the polls. It is just a Democrat talking point to explain why they lose versus running respectable candidates.

The myth will die today when Trump wins states that have high turnout, like Texas.

 

[Joe Fan]

Florida
Rs +17 in Palm Beach
Rs -4 in Broward (which is a victory of sorts)
R EV in Pinellas Co is up almost 3-to-1 (Obama carried this county in 2012)

Here is a great county by county map Florida early voting statistics

Overall, the D lead going in was ~100k and is now closer to 20k

edit - now ~5k

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Apparently FL and AZ have real time accounting of voting by registration. If this is very positive before 6 pm CDT, watch Dems meltdown. If Trump wins FL and AZ, then Trump likely wins GA, NC, OH, etc and be 1 state away from reelection

 

[Garmel]

I voted today in the sleepy town of Nolanville and it usually takes 5-10 minutes to vote on election day there. It took me an hour this time with a huge line. I asked one of the volunteers if she ever saw it this way before. She says she hasn't and said it's going to be a great day for this country. What a cool lady.

 

[huisache]

Most interesting thing to me in this whole shebang: liberals dumping scorn on Trump’s base of white males without college degrees. That used to be the Democratic Party’s base and reason for existence

now how do you explain that turnabout?

 

[Joe Fan]

BC people like Clyburn and Waters are desperate over election day turnout. They got a bunch of worried phone calls. "Do something!", "That's what we are paying you for!"
But what could they do? This is the best their brainstorming could come up with

They going all out in PA

 

[Horn6721]

There are reasons two people can be in a voting booth but they have to be ok'd by the election judge on site.
Each polling place can have poll watchers of both parties. It looks like Philly has already denied GOP authorized watchers. I hope they complained and followed through

 

[Mr. Deez]

Most interesting thing to me in this whole shebang: liberals dumping scorn on Trump’s base of white males without college degrees. That used to be the Democratic Party’s base and reason for existence

now how do you explain that turnabout?

They've been replaced by white males with college degrees and man-buns.

 

[Duck Dodgers]

Most interesting thing to me in this whole shebang: liberals dumping scorn on Trump’s base of white males without college degrees. That used to be the Democratic Party’s base and reason for existence

now how do you explain that turnabout?

It's part of the re-alignment of politics in the western world, as I've mentioned before.

Left wing parties used to focus on the low to middle class, while right wing parties were the upper middle to upper class.

Sometime, 2000's maybe, the left wing drifted away from working class polices, to its three-legged stool of people on welfare / government workers / upper class and rich.

I think it was a matter of the rich took the party over, and decided that they'd be better off without the middle class. People on welfare could provide the votes needed to win elections, combined with money from the rich for TV ads, and labor could either be outsourced to foreign counties, or in-sourced via illegal immigration.

The Republican party, being traditionally the party of the rich and big business, went along with most of these polices, as chumps like Paul Ryan and John Bonner never met a big business they didn't kiss up to, even the ones who were run by leftists who hated both Republican ideas, and especially, their voters.

Hence, the door was wide open for a populist like Trump to come in, and assume the mantle of champion of the working class. He's an imperfect vehicle for it, but who else are the working class going to support? Bush III?