2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Duck Dodgers said:
Unlike the national polls, these people should have a good handle on how to poll that state. Huge lead for Trump, and indicative of the fact that Trump is in fact stronger than he was last time.
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Also, the Des Moines Register has Ernst 4 points over Greenfield now. It's looking like we'll keep that senate seat.
 
Duck Dodgers said:
No expert in NC politics, but from what I’ve read Trump is in a better position with the early vote than last time, when he won by 3.
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In NC, dems at the ballot lead 38 to 31 percent. What's worrisome is 40 and under account for 41 % of the vote. Going to need a big Tuesday
 
Natey Nate is a fraud. Takes polls he likes, applies Secret Hobo Spices to make them more crooked, then goes on all the talk shows to predict 6 of the last 3 Democrat wins. After the usual disgraceful performance, hides behind page 238 of his report where he says it’s not impossible for the Republican to win, so he was actually right.
 
PredictIt is now predicting all but one state for Trump that Trump needs to win re-election. The next closest for Trump is PA at 60% Biden.

 
Saw this on my FB feed and got a chuckle out of it.
Screenshot_20201101-025827_Facebook.jpg
 
mchammer said:
Dems trying to have a big vote effort on Sunday, after church in minority areas. Last day of early voting in FL.
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Biden is attempting to make one more rally in Florida with a 'souls to the polls' today (dont blame me for that phrasing)
But they already had one of those last weekend, and I suspect the vast majority of their best and most reliable early voters have already early voted
But we will see what they come up with (wink, wink)

On election day itself, Rs should out vote Dems 2-1, perhaps 3-1
Trump won 2016 Florida by 113k
He is on tract to win 2020 by 200k+
 
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Joe Fan said:
Wisconsin
Frank Luntz (Rep-leaning pollster) says Trump is ahead in most swing states– including PA and Michigan, and is tied in Wisconsin.

Here is the TargetSmart view of Wisc
Dems led early with VBM
But Reps have shown up with a large early vote turnout

4Mut3fnb
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Apparently the ACB Supreme Court pick is very popular in the Midwestern suburbs, line in Wisconsin, where there is an abundance of Catholic, pro-life white moms.

White suburban females was supposed to be what was going to kill Trump this time (we kept hearing that in here too) but it may not be the case
 
Texas

My theory on Texas is that back in 2016, Trump's style and language offended many Texas Republicans. They did not like the way he treated Ted Cruz. They did not like the way he treated Jeb Bush. They got their feelings hurt. This was reflected in a "low-ish" turnout. And it was this suppressed turnout that directly led to all the national Dem excitement over Beto and the idea that they could flip Texas blue. Which caused obscene amounts of political money to pour in (Soros, Bloomberg, Big Tech, Wall Street)

But now Texas Republicans have had 4 years of Trump to observe first hand. They see what he has done (energy, the econ, immigration, conservative judges, fighting biased media and so on). They realize now it was good he won and that they are lucky he won without them (let's be honest, some of them are slow thinkers). And they are back in the fold now, and voting. And so Trump is going to beat Biden by a good margin (My call is 8).
 
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No laws broken.

No one hurt.

No store windows broken, nothing stolen, no fires set, no rocks and bottles thrown at police. So the exact opposite of any leftist event.

I’m failing to see how showing your support for your choice for President, in proximity to the other candidates tour bus, is anything other than what basic American freedom is about.

The hand wringing about it sounds exactly like how leftist try to keep anyone they disagree with politicaly, off campus because it makes them feel unsafe. Not too unsafe to riot and break up the event if it happens anyway though.
 
The Florida update as of Sunday am is Ds +92,304
11 day ago, their lead was +486k
In 2016 they led by 96,400 at this same time
So Rs are already +4.1k ahead of their 2016 pace (Trump won by 113k)

Keep in mind these numbers are by registration only, so they do not include any Dem-to-Rep flips, as appears to be happening within black and hispanic communities. And those "flips" would seem to be statistically significant.

Candidates who win both Ohio and Florida are 26-1 since 1852
(the exception was JFK over Nixon which may have involved some Dem cheating)
 
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Joe Fan said:
Iowa
This is the final Selzer poll of Iowa
It has Trump +7
That's the same margin as their final 2016 poll, which foreshadowed Trump's Midwestern sweep
(he ended up winning Iowa +9.4 in 2016)
Iowa Poll: Trump takes lead from Biden days before Nov. 3 election
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Something else from that final Selzer/Iowa poll which, IMO, ties into the support of Trump's ACB Supreme Ct pick. She says women and independents are breaking for Trump. If this is true and true for the rest of the Midwest, as it was in 2016, then it is all but over

Elvi4-mXIAAzl2x
 
In the home stretch, liberals and Dems seem to be finally realizing they may be in trouble, that they were misled by the polls again. But it's too late

Most Democrats still believe Biden will capture Pennsylvania, and he maintains a modest polling lead there, but their confidence has eroded in recent weeks with emerging signs of a tightening contest in the state, according to elected officials, strategists and party activists. Both sides believe the outcome in Pennsylvania will be crucial in determining who wins the White House​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/
 
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