2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

[Joe Fan]

There are supposed to be Team Trump's internal polling numbers

TEXAS -- Trump 51% Biden 47%
OHIO -- Trump 51% Biden 47%
FLORIDA -- Trump 50% Biden 48%
IOWA -- Trump 50% Biden 49%
MICHIGAN -- Trump 49% Biden 47%
ARIZONA -- Trump 49% Biden 45%​

His internals are known to be tight. For example, in 2016, his internals showed him down in MI (Trump won it) and WI (Trump won). I think he wins 2020 Texas by 8+ and Florida by 4+

 

[Joe Fan]

Iowa has a weird system, of course, but it sounds like Trump will take it oo

 

[mchammer]

There are supposed to be Team Trump's internal polling numbers

TEXAS -- Trump 51% Biden 47%
OHIO -- Trump 51% Biden 47%
FLORIDA -- Trump 50% Biden 48%
IOWA -- Trump 50% Biden 49%
MICHIGAN -- Trump 49% Biden 47%
ARIZONA -- Trump 49% Biden 45%​

His internals are known to be tight. For example, in 2016, his internals showed him down in MI (Trump won it) and WI (Trump won). I think he wins 2020 Texas by 8+ and Florida by 4+

Hard to believe TX and IA are that close.

 

[Joe Fan]

Apparently the Nevada update did not go as well as hoped
But this is Ralston (Dem guy) on the rural vote

"First, Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it."​

But I dont know if there is enough here to overcome Clark County where they seem to be finding votes

 

[Joe Fan]

Hard to believe TX and IA are that close.

I think I remember reading Trump's internals in 2016 had him losing most of the Rust Belt, outside of Ohio and Iowa. Then he basically ran the table.

 

[Joe Fan]

Apparently the Nevada update did not go as well as hoped
But this is Ralston (Dem guy) on the rural vote

"First, Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it."​

But I dont know if there is enough here to overcome Clark County where they seem to be finding votes

Trump is blowing out the rural vote all over the country
Here is another example from North Carolina
Brunswick County is at 105.7% turnout vs 2016
Brunswick Co Voter Registration Nov 2016 to Oct 2020

GOP +9,382
Dem -60​

 

[mchammer]

Trump is blowing out the rural vote all over the country
Here is another example from North Carolina
Brunswick County is at 105.7% turnout vs 2016
Brunswick Co Voter Registration Nov 2016 to Oct 2020

GOP +9,382
Dem -60​

Brunswick County is where I go to spend a week at the beach with extended family in mid July. Rural plus retirees from up north.

 

[Joe Fan]

Holy cow - Florida
I know this has become but these numbers are pretty stunning
This is includes all voting to date, vote by mail and in person EV
Numbers compare to 2016

Palm Beach Ds -9
Miami Dade Ds -22.5
Orange Ds -14
Hillsborough Ds -6
Duval, Henry Ds -3​

----------------
The updated FL total for in person EV is Rs+507,402

The overall Dem lead in FL down to 109k
Some people are speculating they will try and get one more Dem voting burst there since theyve finally hit the panic button trying to rally people
We will see about that

 

[Joe Fan]

Someone spotted the Kamala Harris Campaign Bus out on the road

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

Look at Trump healing America's wounds

 

[SlothHorn]

Something is up.
Just yesterday, Twatter reinstated the NY Post. Last night ABC news actually did a lengthy story on Hunter Biden's foreign China/laptop stuff. Seems kind of odd that, all of a sudden, the media starts doing its job.

 

[Joe Fan]

....Trump is getting cross-overs from Dems, indies, blacks, latinos and a chunk of asians.

There has been some good Trump related music this time. YMCA at rallies. The Miami-Cuban "Por Dohald Trump" is great. Now this one - cant say I am a hophop expert but this is catchy

 

[Joe Fan]

Something is up.
Just yesterday, Twatter reinstated the NY Post. Last night ABC news actually did a lengthy story on Hunter Biden's foreign China/laptop stuff. Seems kind of odd that, all of a sudden, the media starts doing its job.

Maybe they finally figured out Biden is losing?
They are kind of slow - it was just the last 2 days they realized they might have a problem in Miami/Dade.
I mean - Come On Man!

 

[Joe Fan]

I imagine that, in addition to the faux sincerity, it would have been consistent with travel by Weiner mobile if she also had one of those tired lines about how "things really are bigger in Texas"

 

[Joe Fan]

Preparing for the Republicans to riot, again

 

[Joe Fan]

Trump is blowing out the rural vote all over the country
Here is another example from North Carolina
Brunswick County is at 105.7% turnout vs 2016
Brunswick Co Voter Registration Nov 2016 to Oct 2020

GOP +9,382
Dem -60​

The Dem lead in North Carolina has fallen to D+ 255k
In 2016, their lead was 310k going in and they lost by 3.8 points
And the black vote fell for 6th straight day to 19.4% (was 21% in 2016.)

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

Wisconsin
It is hard to get good info here as I dont think they release party affiliation but TargetSmart says all pre-Election Day voting gives Rs +8

 

[Joe Fan]

Florida county map to date
Hispanic Republican turnout in Florida is nearly 7% higher than Hispanic Democrat turnout
Hendry County is the big one in the south - the one that does not touch either coast. The Latinos in Hendry are much more Mexican immigrant than Cuban. And its dark red. Hopefully this will translate to states like AZ and NM

 

[Joe Fan]

Here is Nevada up to date
Dems were supposed to have a 4X lead in the total EV. They dont. They do lead but its nowhere near that high
A Trump win will be within reach on Election Day but it will take a big R turnout
2020 Early Vote Dashboard

 

[Horn6721]

So much encouraging news
But I can't stop the concern
All those angry bitter haters who gave vowed to cheat anyway they can.

 

[Joe Fan]

Wisconsin
It is hard to get good info here as I dont think they release party affiliation but TargetSmart says all pre-Election Day voting gives Rs +8

More Wisconsin

Republican Counties in Wisconsin are voting Early In Person at higher rates than the Democrat ones. And Wisc Dems really pushed absentee ballots

Waukesha: 39.2%
Washington: 44.8%
Ozaukee: 39.7%
Statewide Average: 31.2%

Milwaukee: 30.4%
Dane: 22%​

 

[Joe Fan]

So much encouraging news
But I can't stop the concern. All those angry bitter haters who gave vowed to cheat anyway they can.

It already seems to be happening in Clark County, NV (Vegas) with the so-called Reid Machine
The simple answer is for Trump's winning margins to be so large they cant seriously be challenged

 

[Joe Fan]

Here is what they are trying to set up with all the bad polling
The narrative is already fixed

 

[Horn6721]

I just hope GOP lawyers are as ready as Nancy says Dem lawyers are

 

[Joe Fan]

A good "where we are now" guide

 

[4th_floor]

Someone spotted the Kamala Harris Campaign Bus out on the road

Shouldn't Harris be an empty bun - spread open?

 

[4th_floor]

Something is up.
Just yesterday, Twatter reinstated the NY Post. Last night ABC news actually did a lengthy story on Hunter Biden's foreign China/laptop stuff. Seems kind of odd that, all of a sudden, the media starts doing its job.

Perhaps they are realizing that Trump might win, and they don't want to be blamed for participating in the coverup. But I think their credibility is already completely ruined.

Also, I reposted the Post story on Facistbook yesterday. It is still up today. I think the wall has definitely cracked.

 

[mchammer]