World Economic Outlook Has Turned Downward
- Thread starter Musburger1
- Start date
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
The result of globalism, falsely labeled as free trade.Since 2014 the US has added 450,000 waiters/bartenders, and zero manufacturing workers
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Da comrade
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
What I consider free trade is much different than how it actually works.
For example, industry in country A makes and produces goods which they sell to country B and vice versa. Comparative advantage and all that. Maybe Ford makes cars in Detroit and sells them in Australia. Australia mines a mineral and sells it to the US.
But now, these so called free trade arrangements are just a cover for what they really are which is free capital arrangements. In this example, Ford would close its Detroit shop and move to the outback and employ Aborigines at a lower wage and provide no health or other benefits. This is called higher productivity because Ford lowers costs which allows them to achieve the same number of units with lower expenditures. They then sell the cars back to America. Not only are the Ford US employees laid off, but competitors who remain in the US are forced to either lower wages and benefits or off shore to stay competitive. The corporation and stock holders benefit as do pension funds (the upper 1-5% of the population) as the majority of the population see income fall. In order to keep consumption levels high as incomes decline, interest rates are lowered so that the population can still purchase goods on credit. The economy becomes more and more financialized.
Similarly, an agreement like NAFTA enables a company such as Del Monte to move into Mexico and monopolize portions of the agriculture sector. Tens of thousands of small farmers become wiped out and flee across the border and then we complain about the influx. GDP isn't harmed, and may actually rise, but the benefits accrue at the top. This "free trade" charade which is nothing more than a free card to relocate capital out of the country has led to the US becoming the country with the greatest wealth disparity in the developed world. This is why Trump has so much support.
For example, industry in country A makes and produces goods which they sell to country B and vice versa. Comparative advantage and all that. Maybe Ford makes cars in Detroit and sells them in Australia. Australia mines a mineral and sells it to the US.
But now, these so called free trade arrangements are just a cover for what they really are which is free capital arrangements. In this example, Ford would close its Detroit shop and move to the outback and employ Aborigines at a lower wage and provide no health or other benefits. This is called higher productivity because Ford lowers costs which allows them to achieve the same number of units with lower expenditures. They then sell the cars back to America. Not only are the Ford US employees laid off, but competitors who remain in the US are forced to either lower wages and benefits or off shore to stay competitive. The corporation and stock holders benefit as do pension funds (the upper 1-5% of the population) as the majority of the population see income fall. In order to keep consumption levels high as incomes decline, interest rates are lowered so that the population can still purchase goods on credit. The economy becomes more and more financialized.
Similarly, an agreement like NAFTA enables a company such as Del Monte to move into Mexico and monopolize portions of the agriculture sector. Tens of thousands of small farmers become wiped out and flee across the border and then we complain about the influx. GDP isn't harmed, and may actually rise, but the benefits accrue at the top. This "free trade" charade which is nothing more than a free card to relocate capital out of the country has led to the US becoming the country with the greatest wealth disparity in the developed world. This is why Trump has so much support.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
While true, how would McDonald's customers react to the idea that the production of that Big Mac had no human involved? Big Mac kiosks? Customer perception may be more important than operational costs.
BTW- I'm not in favor of $15/hr movement as I think the incentive to get out of a McDonald's job is that if pays so poorly.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
If McDonalds carries through with this and lowers costs, this may turn off customers, but McDonalds would be in a position to lower prices to get the customers back. If they are able to gain market share as a result of lowering prices resulting from savings on labor costs, competitors would then follow suit. Pretty soon, the college graduates who relied on the fast food industry for employment won't even have that.
I love those self checkout kiosks. I wish they were everywhere. Why would anyone want to deal with a human when they don't have to? The only good thing about raising the minimum wage will be more self checkouts!
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
I'd rather have a self checkout at the grocery store for packaged goods. Not sure I want a "fresh food" item delivered that way. I'm not McD's target audience though. It's been years since I or my family have eaten there. I'll pick a Chipotle where I can see the food being made instead.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
While we're on the subject of robots and automation (link):
THE SYSTEM WON’T SURVIVE THE ROBOTS
It’s really just a matter of time; the working man’s deal with his overseers is half dead already. But there’s still inertia in the system, and even the losers are keeping the faith. Hope dies slowly, after all.
Nonetheless, the deal is collapsing and a new wave of robots will kill it altogether. Unless the overseers can pull back on technology – very fast and very hard – the deal that held through all our lifetimes will unwind.
We All Know the Deal
We usually don’t discuss what the “working man’s deal” is, but we know it just the same. It goes like this:
If you obey authority and support the system, you’ll be able to get a decent job. And if you work hard at your job, you’ll be able to buy a house and raise a small family.
This is what we were taught in school and on TV. It’s the deal our parents and grandparents clung to, and it’s even a fairly open deal. You can fight for the political faction of your choiceand you can hold any number of religious and secular alliances, just as long as you stay loyal to the system overall.
This deal has been glamorized in many ways, such as, “Our children will be better off than we are,” “home ownership for everyone,” and of course, “the American Dream.” Except that it isn’t working anymore, or at least it isn’t working well enough.
Among current 20- and 30-year-olds, only about half are able to grasp the deal’s promises. That half is working like crazy, putting up with malignant corporatism and trying to keep ahead of the curve. The other half is dejected and discouraged, taking student loans to chase degrees(there’s more status in that than working at McDonald’s), or else they’re pacified with government handouts and distracted by Facebook.
The deal is plainly unavailable to about half of the young generation, but as I noted above, hope dies slowly and young people raised on promises are still waiting for the deal to kick in. It’s all they know.
Regardless, the deal has abandoned them. It has made them superfluous.
Here’s Why
Put very simply, the deal is dying because two things can no longer coexist:
#1: New technology.
#2: A system geared to old technology.
Let’s start with new technology: New machines and methods have made so many jobs obsolete that there aren’t enough to go around. Both North America and Europe are already filled with the unemployed or underemployed children of industrial workers. But at the same time, we are suffering no shortages; we have an overflow of stuff and a double overload of inane ads trying to sell it all. And there’s something important to glean from this:
Where goods abound, additional jobs are not required.
We don’t need more workers. Machines are producing plenty of stuff for us, and this becomes truer every day.
Item #2 is the system itself; let’s confront that directly too: The system was designed to reap the incomes of industrial workers. Everything from withholding taxes to government schools was put in place to maximize the take from an industrial workforce. Whether purposely or simply by trial and error, the Western world was structured to keep industrial workers moving in a single direction and to reap from them as they went. Call it “efficient rulership” if you like, but the system is a reaping machine.
Technology, however, has advanced beyond the limits of this machine; it has eliminated too many jobs. At the same time, regulations make it almost impossible for the superfluous class to adapt. Nearly everything requires certification and starting a business is out of the question; fail to file a form you’ve never heard of and the IRS will skin you alive.
This system, however, will not change; the big corps paid for the current regulatory regime, and they still own their congressmen.
Enter the Robots
You may have seen this image (it comes from NPR’s Planet Money), but look again anyway. I count 28 states in which “truck driver” is the most common job. As inexact as this map may be, it makes a point we can’t really ignore: What happens to all these truck drivers when self-driving trucks pile on to the roads? And you may count on it that they will; automated trucks will be safer and cheaper and will use less fuel. So, millions of truck drivers will be dropped out of the deal, and probably fairly soon.
On top of that, the very last refuge for the superfluous class – fast food – is experiencing its own robot invasion. Wendy’s just ordered 6,000 self-service ordering kiosks to be installed in the second half of 2016, and KFC’s first automated restaurant went live April 25.
Is There an Answer?
“The deal” is very clearly failing. At the same time, the system is utterly unwilling to change; the people in control are making too much money and hold too much power. The impoverishment of a hundred million people in flyover country won’t move them to give it up. Their system, after all, funnels the wealth of a continent to Washington, DC, in a steady stream… and they’ve bought access to that steam. The system will be defended.
So, forget about orderly reform. Certainly there will be talk of reform, and plenty of it… there will be promises, plans, and a small army of state intellectuals dedicated to keeping hope alive. But the system will not reform itself. Did Rome? Did Greece?
If there is to be an answer, it will have to come from the ‘superfluous’ people… but that discussion will have to wait for another day.
Don’t Blame the Robots
One last point: Don’t make the mistake of blaming technology for all of this. Technology is doing precisely what we want it to do: It’s killing scarcity. And that’s a very, very good thing. Without technology, we all go back to low-tech farming. And if that possibility doesn’t alarm you, you really should try it for a month or two.
Technology is moving forward and should move forward. The death of scarcity is to be welcomed. Our problem is that we’re chained to an archaic hierarchy of dominance with a deeply entrenched skimming class. Either we get past it or we go back to serfdom… or worse.
THE SYSTEM WON’T SURVIVE THE ROBOTS
It’s really just a matter of time; the working man’s deal with his overseers is half dead already. But there’s still inertia in the system, and even the losers are keeping the faith. Hope dies slowly, after all.
Nonetheless, the deal is collapsing and a new wave of robots will kill it altogether. Unless the overseers can pull back on technology – very fast and very hard – the deal that held through all our lifetimes will unwind.
We All Know the Deal
We usually don’t discuss what the “working man’s deal” is, but we know it just the same. It goes like this:
If you obey authority and support the system, you’ll be able to get a decent job. And if you work hard at your job, you’ll be able to buy a house and raise a small family.
This is what we were taught in school and on TV. It’s the deal our parents and grandparents clung to, and it’s even a fairly open deal. You can fight for the political faction of your choiceand you can hold any number of religious and secular alliances, just as long as you stay loyal to the system overall.
This deal has been glamorized in many ways, such as, “Our children will be better off than we are,” “home ownership for everyone,” and of course, “the American Dream.” Except that it isn’t working anymore, or at least it isn’t working well enough.
Among current 20- and 30-year-olds, only about half are able to grasp the deal’s promises. That half is working like crazy, putting up with malignant corporatism and trying to keep ahead of the curve. The other half is dejected and discouraged, taking student loans to chase degrees(there’s more status in that than working at McDonald’s), or else they’re pacified with government handouts and distracted by Facebook.
The deal is plainly unavailable to about half of the young generation, but as I noted above, hope dies slowly and young people raised on promises are still waiting for the deal to kick in. It’s all they know.
Regardless, the deal has abandoned them. It has made them superfluous.
Here’s Why
Put very simply, the deal is dying because two things can no longer coexist:
#1: New technology.
#2: A system geared to old technology.
Let’s start with new technology: New machines and methods have made so many jobs obsolete that there aren’t enough to go around. Both North America and Europe are already filled with the unemployed or underemployed children of industrial workers. But at the same time, we are suffering no shortages; we have an overflow of stuff and a double overload of inane ads trying to sell it all. And there’s something important to glean from this:
Where goods abound, additional jobs are not required.
We don’t need more workers. Machines are producing plenty of stuff for us, and this becomes truer every day.
Item #2 is the system itself; let’s confront that directly too: The system was designed to reap the incomes of industrial workers. Everything from withholding taxes to government schools was put in place to maximize the take from an industrial workforce. Whether purposely or simply by trial and error, the Western world was structured to keep industrial workers moving in a single direction and to reap from them as they went. Call it “efficient rulership” if you like, but the system is a reaping machine.
Technology, however, has advanced beyond the limits of this machine; it has eliminated too many jobs. At the same time, regulations make it almost impossible for the superfluous class to adapt. Nearly everything requires certification and starting a business is out of the question; fail to file a form you’ve never heard of and the IRS will skin you alive.
This system, however, will not change; the big corps paid for the current regulatory regime, and they still own their congressmen.
Enter the Robots
You may have seen this image (it comes from NPR’s Planet Money), but look again anyway. I count 28 states in which “truck driver” is the most common job. As inexact as this map may be, it makes a point we can’t really ignore: What happens to all these truck drivers when self-driving trucks pile on to the roads? And you may count on it that they will; automated trucks will be safer and cheaper and will use less fuel. So, millions of truck drivers will be dropped out of the deal, and probably fairly soon.
On top of that, the very last refuge for the superfluous class – fast food – is experiencing its own robot invasion. Wendy’s just ordered 6,000 self-service ordering kiosks to be installed in the second half of 2016, and KFC’s first automated restaurant went live April 25.
Is There an Answer?
“The deal” is very clearly failing. At the same time, the system is utterly unwilling to change; the people in control are making too much money and hold too much power. The impoverishment of a hundred million people in flyover country won’t move them to give it up. Their system, after all, funnels the wealth of a continent to Washington, DC, in a steady stream… and they’ve bought access to that steam. The system will be defended.
So, forget about orderly reform. Certainly there will be talk of reform, and plenty of it… there will be promises, plans, and a small army of state intellectuals dedicated to keeping hope alive. But the system will not reform itself. Did Rome? Did Greece?
If there is to be an answer, it will have to come from the ‘superfluous’ people… but that discussion will have to wait for another day.
Don’t Blame the Robots
One last point: Don’t make the mistake of blaming technology for all of this. Technology is doing precisely what we want it to do: It’s killing scarcity. And that’s a very, very good thing. Without technology, we all go back to low-tech farming. And if that possibility doesn’t alarm you, you really should try it for a month or two.
Technology is moving forward and should move forward. The death of scarcity is to be welcomed. Our problem is that we’re chained to an archaic hierarchy of dominance with a deeply entrenched skimming class. Either we get past it or we go back to serfdom… or worse.
I have seen it done in Europe with varying success. You just place your order from the kiosk and it magically shows up. I thought it was great.
____________________________________________________________
7 out of 10 new employer firms survive at least 2 years, half at least 5 years, a third at least 10 years and a quarter stay in business 15 years or more
Small businesses make up:
99.7 percent of U.S. employer firms,
64 percent of net new private-sector jobs,
49.2 percent of private-sector employment,
42.9 percent of private-sector payroll,
46 percent of private-sector output,
43 percent of high-tech employment,
98 percent of firms exporting goods, and
33 percent of exporting value.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, SUSB, CPS; International Trade Administration; Bureau of Labor Statistics, BED; Advocacy-funded research, Small Business GDP: Update 2002-2010, www.sba.gov/advocacy/7540/42371.
Small firms accounted for 64 percent of the net new jobs created between 1993 and 2011 (or 11.8 million of the 18.5 million net new jobs). Since the latest recession, from mid-2009 to 2011, small firms, led by the larger ones in the category (20-499 employees), accounted for 67 percent of the net new jobs.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BED. For the latest employment statistics, see Advocacy’s quarterly reports, www.sba.gov/advocacy/10871.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
By all appearances, Brazil will set back developing countries ability to host the Olympics for decades. Wait until some tourists get assaulted or worse because they can't protect them.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
There has been a visible shift out of stocks and into gold (among other assets). See last 6 daily bars in DOW vs. Gold, including today
George Soros (originally famous for shorting the Pound) has made a massive short bet in the S&P 500. Now Paul Singer is loading up on gold.
Are they correct?
George Soros (originally famous for shorting the Pound) has made a massive short bet in the S&P 500. Now Paul Singer is loading up on gold.
Are they correct?
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Any publication that doesn't transition to electronic only content will wither and die. In 20 years, only a handful of paper newspapers will survive and people will pay a premium for a print copy.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
The newspaper I most recently subscribed to, did not really deserve to call itself a newspaper.
Weekly Prediction Contest
* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC
Recent Threads
-
The Media Industry
- Started by texas_ex2000
- Replies: 8K
- West Mall
-
President Biden Accountability Thread
- Started by 2003TexasGrad
- Replies: 4K
- West Mall
Prediction Results Threads
