Ukraine updates
- Thread starter OUBubba
- Start date
I hope for peace and an end to this sorry episode.
But a likely scenario developing is a nasty one:
1. Putin gets pissed off that his army isn't quickly rolling over the Ukrainian "amateurs";
2. Putin moves in massive artillery and "Katyusha"-type rocket launchers--near to Kiev and other cites;
3. The Red Army levels the cities with massive unending artillery and rocket barrages (killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in the process--possibly a million or more);
4. Russia occupies what is a mostly-destroyed Ukraine;
5. The remnants of their army, and other Ukrainian nationalists, wage a guerilla war and resistance ala Afghanistan.
#2 and #3 is the classic Red Army move. That, and overwhelming numbers--numbers which they might not have this go-round. Another monkey wrench that might get thrown in the wheels is a supply issue: does Russia have the ammo/rockets/artillery rounds to destroy Ukraine? Can Russia get the artillery and Katyushas close in to the cities?
A few years ago, I wouldn't believe I'd be contemplating such things now.
But a likely scenario developing is a nasty one:
1. Putin gets pissed off that his army isn't quickly rolling over the Ukrainian "amateurs";
2. Putin moves in massive artillery and "Katyusha"-type rocket launchers--near to Kiev and other cites;
3. The Red Army levels the cities with massive unending artillery and rocket barrages (killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in the process--possibly a million or more);
4. Russia occupies what is a mostly-destroyed Ukraine;
5. The remnants of their army, and other Ukrainian nationalists, wage a guerilla war and resistance ala Afghanistan.
#2 and #3 is the classic Red Army move. That, and overwhelming numbers--numbers which they might not have this go-round. Another monkey wrench that might get thrown in the wheels is a supply issue: does Russia have the ammo/rockets/artillery rounds to destroy Ukraine? Can Russia get the artillery and Katyushas close in to the cities?
A few years ago, I wouldn't believe I'd be contemplating such things now.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Can’t discount the possibility. Here’s another scenario.
Zelensky addresses the US Congress either Wednesday or Thursday night, I don’t recall which. He makes his case for US or NATO intervention. Depending on the polls and what his handlers say, Biden either (1) commits and gets us in a shooting war with Russia or (2) says no, in which the Neo-Nazis hit an area with a chemical attack, attribute it to Putin, and we get into a shooting war with Russia. Hope neither happens.
Overwhelming the opposition with their massively disproportionate numbers, and blasting cities to rubble with artillery and rockets is pretty much all the Red Army is good for. That's what they do. Been that way for around 100 years. Hope we don't see that here, but we might.
TaylorTRoom
1,000+ Posts
Kevin Williamson had a good commentary-
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Civilized World Renders Judgment | National Review
“The woman’s pelvis had been crushed and her hip detached.”
I don’t even know what that last part means. I suppose I can imagine a crushed pelvis easily enough. I can’t imagine what a detached hip looks like or feels like.
The woman in question was famous for a minute. She was a Ukrainian mother who appeared in a famous news photograph. She is dead now. So is the child she was carrying. She was photographed being carried out of that Mariupol maternity hospital that was bombed by Russian troops in Ukraine, one of many examples of the savagery in which the Russians have been engaged. It is tempting to write “sub-human” savagery, but savagery is entirely human. Nobody talks about rattlesnakes or scorpions behaving in a savage fashion — nobody expects them to be anything other than what they are. But we expect more of H. sap. — God knows why.
“Unidentified bloodied pregnant woman,” one headline called her. She must have had a name.
We know the name of Tatiana Perebeinis, 43, and her children, Nikita, 18, and Alise, 9. They were killed running for their lives when they were fired on by Russian artillery. Another famous photo. She was an accountant for a Silicon Valley tech company, working out of Irpin. “Photos of Tatiana Perebeinis and her kids lying in a gutter, surrounded by suitcases and pet carriers, ran on the front page of The New York Times on Tuesday and reverberated around the world,” reports the Daily Beast. I suppose they did.
Here is another family being wiped out, this time caught on video. There are more like it than you want to see.
“We are all Ukrainians now,” says the headline over a Wall Street Journalcolumn. The sentiment is a humane one. But it is a lie. We are not all Ukrainians. Most of us are far removed from anything like that kind of danger or that kind of suffering. The worst we have felt is higher gasoline prices and more expensive groceries. These matter, of course, and they matter a great deal to the poor, for whom these additional financial burdens are very heavy. But that is not the same.
It is not easy to be brave, and it is not easy to suffer. But how much easier it must be to suffer oneself than to watch one’s children suffer, to be cold and hungry, to die, blown to pieces in the womb before taking their first breath. How many Ukrainian mothers and fathers would happily — joyfully — give their own lives if it meant that their children could have a decent dinner and a safe, warm place to sleep — i.e., if they could have what my dogs have? Millions, I imagine.
No, we are not all Ukrainians now. Not by a damned sight.
We are not all Russians either. I do not flatter myself that the Russian people have been waiting for my advice, but I will offer it, anyway: You have to act. You must. This is your country, your army, your government, your tax dollars, your flag, your name. Vladimir Putin is not a superman, and he cannot act alone. What is being done by your government is not going to be forgiven. You, and your children, and your grandchildren will bear the shame of this. Things are never going to go back to normal for you. I don’t know if you have noticed, but, to put it in popular terms, the civilized world has got together, and we have voted you off the island. The ties between you and the civilized world that have been cut in recent weeks are not going to be restored quickly, and many of them will never be restored at all. You are not part of the civilized world anymore. We are not going to forget what you have been party to, what so many of you have stood by and accepted.
What makes it worse, if that is possible, and certainly more asinine: You have already lost, in that what your government had hoped to achieve will not be achieved. You can murder as many expectant mothers and children as you like, bomb them until you run out of munitions, burn down the hospitals and the libraries, execute all the mayors, and you will still have lost. And when you are gone, the civilized people of this world are going to help to rebuild Ukraine, and you will be — what? Praying for high gas prices?
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Civilized World Renders Judgment | National Review
“The woman’s pelvis had been crushed and her hip detached.”
I don’t even know what that last part means. I suppose I can imagine a crushed pelvis easily enough. I can’t imagine what a detached hip looks like or feels like.
The woman in question was famous for a minute. She was a Ukrainian mother who appeared in a famous news photograph. She is dead now. So is the child she was carrying. She was photographed being carried out of that Mariupol maternity hospital that was bombed by Russian troops in Ukraine, one of many examples of the savagery in which the Russians have been engaged. It is tempting to write “sub-human” savagery, but savagery is entirely human. Nobody talks about rattlesnakes or scorpions behaving in a savage fashion — nobody expects them to be anything other than what they are. But we expect more of H. sap. — God knows why.
“Unidentified bloodied pregnant woman,” one headline called her. She must have had a name.
We know the name of Tatiana Perebeinis, 43, and her children, Nikita, 18, and Alise, 9. They were killed running for their lives when they were fired on by Russian artillery. Another famous photo. She was an accountant for a Silicon Valley tech company, working out of Irpin. “Photos of Tatiana Perebeinis and her kids lying in a gutter, surrounded by suitcases and pet carriers, ran on the front page of The New York Times on Tuesday and reverberated around the world,” reports the Daily Beast. I suppose they did.
Here is another family being wiped out, this time caught on video. There are more like it than you want to see.
“We are all Ukrainians now,” says the headline over a Wall Street Journalcolumn. The sentiment is a humane one. But it is a lie. We are not all Ukrainians. Most of us are far removed from anything like that kind of danger or that kind of suffering. The worst we have felt is higher gasoline prices and more expensive groceries. These matter, of course, and they matter a great deal to the poor, for whom these additional financial burdens are very heavy. But that is not the same.
It is not easy to be brave, and it is not easy to suffer. But how much easier it must be to suffer oneself than to watch one’s children suffer, to be cold and hungry, to die, blown to pieces in the womb before taking their first breath. How many Ukrainian mothers and fathers would happily — joyfully — give their own lives if it meant that their children could have a decent dinner and a safe, warm place to sleep — i.e., if they could have what my dogs have? Millions, I imagine.
No, we are not all Ukrainians now. Not by a damned sight.
We are not all Russians either. I do not flatter myself that the Russian people have been waiting for my advice, but I will offer it, anyway: You have to act. You must. This is your country, your army, your government, your tax dollars, your flag, your name. Vladimir Putin is not a superman, and he cannot act alone. What is being done by your government is not going to be forgiven. You, and your children, and your grandchildren will bear the shame of this. Things are never going to go back to normal for you. I don’t know if you have noticed, but, to put it in popular terms, the civilized world has got together, and we have voted you off the island. The ties between you and the civilized world that have been cut in recent weeks are not going to be restored quickly, and many of them will never be restored at all. You are not part of the civilized world anymore. We are not going to forget what you have been party to, what so many of you have stood by and accepted.
What makes it worse, if that is possible, and certainly more asinine: You have already lost, in that what your government had hoped to achieve will not be achieved. You can murder as many expectant mothers and children as you like, bomb them until you run out of munitions, burn down the hospitals and the libraries, execute all the mayors, and you will still have lost. And when you are gone, the civilized people of this world are going to help to rebuild Ukraine, and you will be — what? Praying for high gas prices?
OUBubba
5,000+ Posts
I mean I buy 100% what that guy said about being a volunteer there. Russia will overcome them eventually.
Once they're in Ukraine, Poland is a NATO member. What are the odds that we will eventually be fighting them? 50/50? Eastonia? Latvia? Really every country east of Turkey/Germany.
Once they're in Ukraine, Poland is a NATO member. What are the odds that we will eventually be fighting them? 50/50? Eastonia? Latvia? Really every country east of Turkey/Germany.
This is how the Russians/Soviets have done business for a century. Blast the f@ck out of everything and everyone with artillery and those Katyusha rockets, then overwhelm them with vastly superior numbers of infantry. To Stalin, artillery was "the god of war." If this keeps going, civilian casualties will rise exponentially.
'King of battle' and 'god of war'
Katyushas
'King of battle' and 'god of war'
Katyushas
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Sadly, I can. Working at a funeral home one gets to see some relatively gruesome injuries, and a severely dislocated hip is one thing I had to deal with a few months back. Dude on a bike hit a tree going about 70mph on impact. The hip was pretty nasty, but it was far from the only grisly issue he had.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
I am not saying your scenario is unreasonable. However, there is a big mistake here. This is not the Red Army. They don't have the same motivations. They also don't have as much capability.
So let's stop thinking that the Russian army is still the Red army. Miscalculations on this cost lives.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Classic neocon rhetoric here. First, calling on citizens of a corrupt government to oppose it. In general that is a just cause I get it. But for a upper class American to call on Russian citizens to protest and fight against Putin is asking them to be jailed, tortured and killed. He should go over their and do it himself if he feels so strongly.
Second, he equates the Russian people with the Russian government. This is actually a very wicked thing to do because it then serves to justify harming and killing civilians without discretion. I used to gobble up everything Kevin Williamson wrote, but he has gone off the deep end. I have lost all respect for him. That started when he continued to insult Trump after the Biden was elected. He showed himself to have a serious case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
The civilized world has voted Russian citizens "off the island" and now we get to force them to die in a rebellion against Putin? Horrendous and despicable.
TaylorTRoom
1,000+ Posts
No, I get Williamson’s point. Russia has nukes. The Russians are the only ones that can change that regime. Nobody from the outside will. Until it does change, the west will continue to see the cruelty in occupied Ukraine, and refuse to normalize relations with Russia.
Sure, there will be nations that welcome Russian visitors and will do business with Russia. It won’t be western nations, though, or free world nations. They will be greater pariahs than Iranians.
Russians overthrew the tsar, and they can overthrow Putin. You just need enough of them. It’s like the saying- “if you owe the bank $50k that you don’t have, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $50 million you don’t have, the bank has a problem”. If 50 Russians protest in Red Square, the protesters are in trouble. If 50k protest, Putin is in trouble.
Sure, there will be nations that welcome Russian visitors and will do business with Russia. It won’t be western nations, though, or free world nations. They will be greater pariahs than Iranians.
Russians overthrew the tsar, and they can overthrow Putin. You just need enough of them. It’s like the saying- “if you owe the bank $50k that you don’t have, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $50 million you don’t have, the bank has a problem”. If 50 Russians protest in Red Square, the protesters are in trouble. If 50k protest, Putin is in trouble.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Some truth their but forcing regime at this point will be bloody and the attempt will make the situation worse without any certainty it will be successful. The last part is very presumptive. It also ignores the last 30 years of history.
That there will be the cause of further escalation. Cutting off trade leads to war. It is a pattern of history. If you want war cut off trade. If you want to give peace a chance encourage trade.
Russians overthrew the Tsar in the middle of World War 1. The army wasn't even in the country. As bad as the Tsar was, the result was much worse. The Bolsheviks were the most evil group in human history. So let's be careful what we wish for. Putin is an evil dictator who is ruthless in exerting power in his limited sphere. Communists were a global threat. It was an international movement with real allies in the US. McCarthy was right.
Williamson is really showing his ignorance in that piece and talking big from his couch in Houston. Guy needs to stick to Buckley hagiographies.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
At first I made disparaging comments about Zelensky thinking he would run off once the shooting started. He didn't. He stayed in country and has been rallying the troops. Kudos to him for that. But now he is saying he would rather every person in Kyiv die than negotiate peace. Maybe he is trying to gain leverage for negotiation, but that sounds very heartless for his own people and very reckless leadership.
Putin is willing to murder his own people who would threaten his power. Would he claim everyone in Moscow would have to die before he was willing to surrender in a war? Maybe.
Hey DC, Beltway folks. Can we sit this one out?
Putin is willing to murder his own people who would threaten his power. Would he claim everyone in Moscow would have to die before he was willing to surrender in a war? Maybe.
Hey DC, Beltway folks. Can we sit this one out?
TaylorTRoom
1,000+ Posts
Monahorns- a little history. The tsar went down, and a left leaning Duma formed. Russia was possibly on track for a liberal democracy. Then, Germany, in a (successful) attempt to get Russia out of the war, put Lenin on a sealed train to the Russian border with enough cash to buy the Bolsheviks way to running the security apparatus. He destroyed the Mensheviks and other opposition parties and consolidated power. It didn’t happen organically; it took outside intervention (nobody did more to screw up the 20th century than Germany).
TaylorTRoom
1,000+ Posts
I am skeptical of your sources and conclusions, considering there actually is an army targeting and killing civilians, women and children (spoiler- it’s the Russians)
AC
2,500+ Posts
Are you in Ukraine? How do you know? Media?
Remember when we invaded Iraq we had live streaming video of bombings 24/7. Why can't I find anything on this "invasion"? I see videos of tanks moving, helicopters flying, people talking in other languages, buildings damaged, etc. In this day and age anyone can video and I've seen nothing. Why?
Something is not right with this invasion.
Something is not right with this invasion.
TaylorTRoom
1,000+ Posts
??
We had media imbedded with troops in Iraq.
Russia is trying to suppress coverage. (Russia has killed at least two reporters, shot others and jailed others).
I don’t get your point.
We had media imbedded with troops in Iraq.
Russia is trying to suppress coverage. (Russia has killed at least two reporters, shot others and jailed others).
I don’t get your point.
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Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
There is no independent coverage on mainstream television. Everything we see and hear is designed to influence us. This interview is about the best objective description of what’s going on you’re going to get.
TaylorTRoom
1,000+ Posts
It’s ok, Musburger. You can call it an invasion. And you don’t have to use the scare quotes like Vol Horn.
It is a real, unprovoked invasion of a sovereign nation and real people are being killed.
It is a real, unprovoked invasion of a sovereign nation and real people are being killed.
Just like his American lapdog? The one that didn't have an invasion from Russia on his watch?
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
It’s an invasion. But it was provoked. Only someone blind to the past 8 years doesn’t see the provocations. That would be you.
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