Ukraine updates

Long haul- NATO is stronger and more committed to defense. Ukraine will require a significant military occupation commitment, and so Russia will be vulnerable in other borders unless they increase their military presence there.

Again- the Russian military is a huge disappointment. That’s not good for a more confrontational world. Putin has really mismanaged things badly.
The effectiveness of the great Russian military has been uncovered. And it looks like it’s cold in Ukraine.
 
It’s pretty stupid to think that India would choose to be aligned with China and Pakistan against the west. They aren’t (yet) anti-Russia, but they are on the edge of war with China and Pakistan. The only way to come to this conclusion is if you think that a country’s attitude about Russia is its most important strategic position.
Did you come up with this analysis on your own?
India’s first responsibility is to its people; over 1 billion and they can’t feed themselves. Note that India abstained on a vote earlier this week at the UN. They will purchase the S-400 system from Russia over US objections. Many of these countries want to be neutral. Will they be allowed to? The US now uses sanctions as a weapon. This scares countries because they can be next. They would leave the reserve dollar system if something else will work. India could go either way. Don’t kid yourself that they are in the bag, despite poor relations with their neighbors China and Pakistan.
 
Removing Russia from the SWIFT banking system will go down in history as an epic mistake.
 
It’s pretty stupid to think that India would choose to be aligned with China and Pakistan against the west. They aren’t (yet) anti-Russia, but they are on the edge of war with China and Pakistan. The only way to come to this conclusion is if you think that a country’s attitude about Russia is its most important strategic position.
Did you come up with this analysis on your own?
India Is Mulling Rupee-Ruble Payments System For Trade With Russia | ZeroHedge
 
Maybe the Indians should get out of the call centers and quit coding and start managing their agricultural production better. For such smart people they are poor farmers. Then they wouldn’t have to rely on dealing with tyrants that bomb children.
 
This is the problem with your logic, Mus. The story, of India trying to figure out how to not cancel all its ongoing trade with Russia, in no way indicates that India would subordinate all its commercial and financial ties to the west.
But you want to believe it’s so, so any story that hints in that direction, any commentator (no matter how lacking in credibility, rationality, or gravity) that supports your desired point, in your mind becomes proof.
The world is as it is, not how we wish it to be. Putin is a thug, and history will show him as the ruin of Russia, not the savior. The US is mismanaged, and not some Machiavellian plotter. The west is a loose confederation of disparate interests.
 
This is the problem with your logic, Mus. The story, of India trying to figure out how to not cancel all its ongoing trade with Russia, in no way indicates that India would subordinate all its commercial and financial ties to the west.
But you want to believe it’s so, so any story that hints in that direction, any commentator (no matter how lacking in credibility, rationality, or gravity) that supports your desired point, in your mind becomes proof.
The world is as it is, not how we wish it to be. Putin is a thug, and history will show him as the ruin of Russia, not the savior. The US is mismanaged, and not some Machiavellian plotter. The west is a loose confederation of disparate interests.
Your crediting me for things I didn’t say. I never said India would subordinate all its trade and financial trade to the west. That’s your misrepresentation of what I said. What India wants to do is to get around sanctions and trade with whomever is most advantageous. That could be both with east and west…unless the US tries to force the issue. In which case, only time will tell.
 
Sure, that’s what you were writing. Sure.
maybe it will happen. Maybe India will decide that their future economic ties to the Putin regime are too important to let fall by the wayside and maybe they need some alternative financial structures to those in the west. Maybe.

Or, maybe the PRC tells Putin, “Your invasion is bad for business. Remember your place and end it”.

I wonder which is more likely?
 
Sure, that’s what you were writing. Sure.
maybe it will happen. Maybe India will decide that their future economic ties to the Putin regime are too important to let fall by the wayside and maybe they need some alternative financial structures to those in the west. Maybe.

Or, maybe the PRC tells Putin, “Your invasion is bad for business. Remember your place and end it”.

I wonder which is more likely?
Do you honestly think any of this comes as a surprise to China? Russia and China have been working hand in glove for some time now. China desperately wants a parallel financial system and Russia is one of the lynchpins for such an arrangement.

And even if China urges Putin to stop, he isn't going to go there until objectives are reached to his satisfaction. Russia is all in. If anything, as of today it appears they have escalated by destroying a training base close to the Polish border.
 
Sure, that’s what you were writing. Sure.
maybe it will happen. Maybe India will decide that their future economic ties to the Putin regime are too important to let fall by the wayside and maybe they need some alternative financial structures to those in the west. Maybe.

Or, maybe the PRC tells Putin, “Your invasion is bad for business. Remember your place and end it”.

I wonder which is more likely?
On 2nd thought, I can see where China might try to influence Russia with some concessions by the US on Taiwan. But what China might ask probably isn't something the US would give. And so it goes nowhere.
 
“Objectives to his satisfaction”?

That’s gone. NATO is stronger than ever. Sweden and Finland want to join. Russia’s border is less secure.
 
“Objectives to his satisfaction”?

That’s gone. NATO is stronger than ever. Sweden and Finland want to join. Russia’s border is less secure.
NATO is a paper tiger. They are impotent against a peer military which can hit back. That’s why the war is being waged primarily via finance/economics and via information/propaganda; the first of which is debatable as to who has the most power. NATO clearly has the advantage in terms of information/propaganda; especially within the west. But military and economics will be more important than information in determining the outcome. As it escalates, I believe everyone loses; Just a question of how much is lost.
 
How do you see NATO as a paper tiger? What draws you to that conclusion?

Russia being surprisingly weak, militarily, doesn’t say anything about NATO, as near as I can see.
 
How do you see NATO as a paper tiger? What draws you to that conclusion?

Russia being surprisingly weak, militarily, doesn’t say anything about NATO, as near as I can see.
For years now, the US, UK, etc. have poured billions of military aid into Ukraine, and the UK was in the process of constructing a naval port. Within 48 hours, half of all this was wiped out.

The video below from the link below shows the results of a missile attack launched last night on a training base in Western Ukraine near Poland. There is no defense against this. Even after years of preparation. Think the Baltics are any more protected just because they are formally a NATO member?

 
Horrible argument.

The US and NATO have given peanuts to Ukraine and it is stopping the clawless bear.
What is your evidence that anything is being halted? The Ukraine army has no mobility, is running out of fuel, and is running low on ammo. The air force and Navy are no more. And you think they are winning? I'd hate to see what you think defeat looks like.
 
Ha-ha-ha! I must have really touched a nerve when I criticized your precious Russian army!

The truth is- every objective observer expected Russia to steamroll Ukraine. That they haven’t is changing everyone’s perceptions. If Russia does win, their victory will never be anything but Pyrrhic.
 
There are reports that Russia has asked China for military equipment. This is a big sign Russia under estimated Ukraine.
 
…and that Russia overestimated themselves-

From Jenkins at the WSJ:
Opinion | Biden Should Get Enterprising on Ukraine and Russia


It’s important to remember the nature of the Putin regime. Nobody does a job well—say, lead, train and equip an army—when simultaneously engaged in a contest to steal as much as possible and put it in their own pockets.

Mr. Putin’s defense chief, Sergei Shoigu, has been reported since 2015 to own an $18 million mansion, first in the name of his daughter, then of his sister-in-law. His predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was sacked in connection with a reported $47 million embezzlement scandal, then given a new plum at a state arms maker. Both men, according to investigative reporters, kept on-the-job paramours who took home $140 million in no-bid state contracts.
 


I would like to remind this thread that all we have are MSM narratives to go by. I attempt to get military intelligence and it has been more accurate but timelines are strung way out. No news channel knows what Putin is trying to do or what his strategy is. None of them! So anyone on here trying to intimate what Putin is attempting to do is just regurgitating an MSM narrative or some other narrative. We will understand this when it is History! I do know that Xi and Putin talk a lot and they are coordinating a lot of this together! Whatever they are trying to do.
 


I would like to remind this thread that all we have are MSM narratives to go by. I attempt to get military intelligence and it has been more accurate but timelines are strung way out. No news channel knows what Putin is trying to do or what his strategy is. None of them! So anyone on here trying to intimate what Putin is attempting to do is just regurgitating an MSM narrative or some other narrative. We will understand this when it is History! I do know that Xi and Putin talk a lot and they are coordinating a lot of this together! Whatever they are trying to do.

Gee, let's see, we've got any number of politicians pointing fingers at China for the last two years and it took them a relatively long time to latch on to the misinformation spread out of Moscow (R) to fling poo in our direction.
 
Linked podcast is from a guy formerly in the Navy and Dept of Defense. He worked in defense systems up until a year or so ago. Here is his framing of the Ukraine situation.

Thoughts on Ukraine - MartyrMade

He does a great job of summarizing the history and explaining where he is coming from. I would say I align with this view point very strongly as I have read much of the historical references he uses. His citations span from left to right.
 
If any of you are thinking about going over to fight for Zelensky, maybe rethink it. With that said, the most honorable way to stand with Ukraine is to individually go fight for their freedom.

 
"THE WHOLE WORLD WILL BE OURS!" (1930s Soviet propaganda poster)
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whataredelusionsofgrandeurorgrandiosedelusion-1628154130.jpg
 

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