Ukraine updates

Seattle Husker said:
Bitcoin/Ethereum are at the same spot they were at in Sept of 2020. I know because that's when I setup my portfolio for both. It went up by 60% which at the time @AC claimed Bitcoin was on it's way to $120k per coin. It then has dropped back down to break even and was even at a loss for a short period a month ago.

The Crypto market has shown that it's not immune to government crackdowns. Specifically, actions by the Chinese and Russian governments triggered the pull back. Crypto is 100% faith based. The only thing hold it up is the small retail investor gambling.
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Patience! I don’t like it either. Read the video I posted earlier. Bitcoin is famous for kangaroo markets up down up down. Each 4 year cycle gets the majority of its gains in the best 10-20 days out of 4 years. Patience!
The kangaroo market started last April. It suck’s but hold on for dear life!
 
Musburger1 said:
Russia To Ban Fertilizer Exports To 'Not Friendly' Countries; China Warns US Against Retaliation | ZeroHedge

Anyone think this won't eventually matter?
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It all matters. How much? The Biden Admin already put stiff tariffs on Russian fertilizer in 2021, tipping the scale to sources from Morocco and elsewhere. With those tariffs one can assume that supply chains have already begun to course correct away from Russian sources.

Fighting Russian aggression certainly has an economic cost to the rest of the world. Will it be commensurate with Russia itself? Not a chance. Would it be grand if there were no special economic operations by the West? Absolutely but that would also mean acquiescing to the Russian invasion and allowing them to continue to have the economic power for further aggression beyond Ukraine.
 
Seattle Husker said:
It all matters. How much? The Biden Admin already put stiff tariffs on Russian fertilizer in 2021, tipping the scale to sources from Morocco and elsewhere. With those tariffs one can assume that supply chains have already begun to course correct away from Russian sources.

Fighting Russian aggression certainly has an economic cost to the rest of the world. Will it be commensurate with Russia itself? Not a chance. Would it be grand if there were no special economic operations by the West? Absolutely but that would also mean acquiescing to the Russian invasion and allowing them to continue to have the economic power for further aggression beyond Ukraine.
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Well, your view aligns with the views of the people who are calling the shots. I think they're mistaken. Gravely so.
 
Musburger1 said:
Well, your view aligns with the views of the people who are calling the shots. I think they're mistaken. Gravely so.
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I think Putin is gravely mistaken for invading Ukraine but here we are. We have to play the cards we are dealt.

It should be noted that I'm not a war hawk. If you look back on Hornfans I was steadfastly against Gulf War II. With that said, the reality of the situation is that Putin's aggression can't go unchecked and a special economic operation is the preferred response rather than direct military engagement. It is OK to say I don't agree with the morality of your actions and choose not to do business with you and indirectly economically support your actions.
 
I think Putin miscalculated Ukraine also, don’t know what he wants more land at what cost? Pride, political, minerals what is his target. How can he exit?
 
Putin isn’t after Land. He’s after those Bio Weapon Labs, money laundering operations, and Neo Nazi’s. See the Bio Labs thread. Russia is calling a UN Security Council meeting to present evidence they have. Let’s see what happens after that.
 
AC said:
Putin isn’t after Land. He’s after those Bio Weapon Labs, money laundering operations, and Neo Nazi’s. See the Bio Labs thread. Russia is calling a UN Security Council meeting to present evidence they have. Let’s see what happens after that.
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You forgot the drug-addled neo-nazis leading the country.
 
OUBubba said:
You forgot the drug-addled neo-nazis leading the country.
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The Russian leadership are certainly fascists, but I would hesitate to call them neo Nazis. (Definitions are important). They lack the racist-eugenics streak of Nazis (now, Xi Jinping?…)

I think history is being rewritten as the war continues. The Russian army is doing so poorly that Putin is about tkk on be known as the leader who dramatically weakened his nation’s military. Who knew kleptocracy was such an inefficient system?
 
TaylorTRoom said:
The Russian leadership are certainly fascists, but I would hesitate to call them neo Nazis. (Definitions are important). They lack the racist-eugenics streak of Nazis (now, Xi Jinping?…)

I think history is being rewritten as the war continues. The Russian army is doing so poorly that Putin is about tkk on be known as the leader who dramatically weakened his nation’s military. Who knew kleptocracy was such an inefficient system?
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No, that's what Putin called Zelensky's administration. Despite the fact that Zelensky is the descendant of holocaust victims.
 
Here is the latest. The comment about the roads is due to all the mud in the North. I don't think it is as much a problem in the South. But off road is where the Ukrainian is hanging out to harass the Russians on the roads.

Notice the strike location trend East of Kiev going South and North along the roads from Kherson (I think). I think the goal is to cut off Kiev from West Ukraine. Maybe that will start a real negotiation? Hope so. But not clear at this point.

 
Comprehensive interview. Biolabs, Russian Strategy, Military Aid - how it might backfire, CIA influence, chances for settlement. Covers much.

 
Musburger, I never click your links. Since they are created by a nation that doesn’t see cyber crime as a problem, but rather a national core capability, I can’t see them as worth the risk. Any chance you could cut and paste?
 
TaylorTRoom said:
Musburger, I never click your links. Since they are created by a nation that doesn’t see cyber crime as a problem, but rather a national core capability, I can’t see them as worth the risk. Any chance you could cut and paste?
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Is there one in particular you’d like me to paste?
 
Is crippling the Russian economy a way to hurt Putin?
He doesn't care about the people

so all the sanctions are doing is hurting the Russian people.
 
Horn6721 said:
Is crippling the Russian economy a way to hurt Putin?
He doesn't care about the people

so all the sanctions are doing is hurting the Russian people.
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Russia has for all intents and purposes been thrown out of the global economy. Russia knew this was a possibility before the invasion. At this point, Russia’s survival as a nation hinges on whether China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, and others will be able to construct an alternative economic/financial structure apart from the existing dollar system. If they can’t Russia will likely break up. If they can, there will be a bipolar system and the current unipolar system will have to reinvent itself. “Own nothing and be happy” comes to mind. So the war is really the US vs Russia. Many of the other players will stand back and see which way the wind is blowing and then choose a side. For example, Erdogan’s Turkey.
 
Musburger1 said:
Russia has for all intents and purposes been thrown out of the global economy. Russia knew this was a possibility before the invasion. At this point, Russia’s survival as a nation hinges on whether China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, and others will be able to construct an alternative economic/financial structure apart from the existing dollar system. If they can’t Russia will likely break up. If they can, there will be a bipolar system and the current unipolar system will have to reinvent itself. “Own nothing and be happy” comes to mind. So the war is really the US vs Russia. Many of the other players will stand back and see which way the wind is blowing and then choose a side. For example, Erdogan’s Turkey.
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They should take control of their country.
 
Horn6721 said:
Is crippling the Russian economy a way to hurt Putin?
He doesn't care about the people

so all the sanctions are doing is hurting the Russian people.
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Without a doubt it hampers his war apparatus. In any elongated invasion Putin's ability to pay his soldiers, feed his soldiers, replenish/repair armaments and simply keep the morale of his army at an acceptable level as their families back home suffer should have a demonstrable impact. Putin's own ability to manage pressure in Russia while pushing forward in Ukraine also becomes more challenging with the sanctions.

Putin won't starve. To him, think of sanctions like a leader at a company that made a HUGE Capital investment, a bet on the future of the company, right before the economy collapses. He's committed the $$$ and now needs to make the decision to walk away from the investment, suffering huge losses and consolidate what's left or potentially see the company file bankruptcy. He's the CEO of Enron right now with no navigable path through the minefield.
 
Long haul- NATO is stronger and more committed to defense. Ukraine will require a significant military occupation commitment, and so Russia will be vulnerable in other borders unless they increase their military presence there.

Again- the Russian military is a huge disappointment. That’s not good for a more confrontational world. Putin has really mismanaged things badly.
 
I still think Russia pulls out of Ukraine at some point. April/May? They did this to get the UN Security Council buy in which was a success. More work to do. Countries representing half the worlds population want to investigate this. The US has a deep state problem. We need to root them out and expose them!
 
Musburger1 said:
Russia has for all intents and purposes been thrown out of the global economy. Russia knew this was a possibility before the invasion. At this point, Russia’s survival as a nation hinges on whether China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, and others will be able to construct an alternative economic/financial structure apart from the existing dollar system. If they can’t Russia will likely break up. If they can, there will be a bipolar system and the current unipolar system will have to reinvent itself. “Own nothing and be happy” comes to mind. So the war is really the US vs Russia. Many of the other players will stand back and see which way the wind is blowing and then choose a side. For example, Erdogan’s Turkey.
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It’s pretty stupid to think that India would choose to be aligned with China and Pakistan against the west. They aren’t (yet) anti-Russia, but they are on the edge of war with China and Pakistan. The only way to come to this conclusion is if you think that a country’s attitude about Russia is its most important strategic position.
Did you come up with this analysis on your own?
 
AC said:
I still think Russia pulls out of Ukraine at some point. April/May? They did this to get the UN Security Council buy in which was a success. More work to do. Countries representing half the worlds population want to investigate this. The US has a deep state problem. We need to root them out and expose them!
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Who wants this investigated? Russia, china, Belarus, North Korea?
 
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