Ukraine updates

[OUBubba]

Is DJT is flawed narcissist? Absolutely. 100%. I’d take that — and $3.00 gas, no wars, talks with North Korea, baby formula, a border wall, aggressive pursuit of human traffickers, an anti-China (screwing us) approach — and about 100 other policies — over the dementia riddled, 40-year non-achiever we have in the WH now.

Wouldn’t you?

North Korea pulled his pants down. Oil was negative under the other guy. It was over 4/gallon under Bush. And this is Bidens fault? The saudies want a US president who facilitates their dismembering of US journalists. The oil companies want a GOP president. This lack of expanding real capacity and letting the oil profits roll in is the equivalent of a police department slow walking crime enforcement to make a mayor look bad but with billions to show for it.

Baby formula. Lol. Haters gonna hate.

 

[dukesteer]

North Korea pulled his pants down. Oil was negative under the other guy. It was over 4/gallon under Bush. And this is Bidens fault? The saudies want a US president who facilitates their dismembering of US journalists. The oil companies want a GOP president. This lack of expanding real capacity and letting the oil profits roll in is the equivalent of a police department slow walking crime enforcement to make a mayor look bad but with billions to show for it.

Baby formula. Lol. Haters gonna hate.

“North Korea pulled his pants down.”

How so?

“Oil was negative under the other guy. It was over 4/gallon under Bush. And this is Bidens fault?”

Yep. Biden is controlled (if it’s even possible to control someone with his mental acuity) by the Green progressives, led perhaps by AOC and the like. They want gas prices so high that no one can afford gas powered vehicles. The war in Ukraine is a convenient excuse. This is what they want, and they could care less how many poor and medium income families are hurt.

“The saudies want a US president who facilitates their dismembering of US journalists.”

Trump is complicit in the dismembering of US journalists?

“The oil companies want a GOP president. This lack of expanding real capacity and letting the oil profits roll in is the equivalent of a police department slow walking crime enforcement to make amayor look bad but with billions to show for it.”

Oil companies make money for their shareholders. So do pharmaceutical companies. Is your solution (to the high profits) to Nationalize the industry, Venezuela style? If you are looking to control profits, it sure sounds like it.

 

[Chop]

Back to the thread topic…

Ukraine continues to thwart Russia’s repeated failed attempts to take Kharkiv. The big action remains in the East.

Per Denys Davydov, Sievierodonetsk has long since fallen. Lysychansk is under siege. It is unlikely that Russia will be able to make a successful river crossing and “charge up the hill.” (Those who have studied military history know that move doesn’t usually turn out well for the attackers.).

So R has been throwing big numbers at a pinchers move to try to surround Lysychansk. From the North, U has stopped them—there’s a river and swamps that R is having a most difficult time crossing. From the South, R is making big headway and U is now in real danger of getting a lot of troops in Lysychansk surrounded and besieged.

 

[Monahorns]

I heard Kharkiv the goal was to take out the U military there but not necessarily take the city. If I am getting the city name correct. If so, they have removed the U army out.

 

[Chop]

I heard Kharkiv the goal was to take out the U military there but not necessarily take the city. If I am getting the city name correct. If so, they have removed the U army out.

U army is still in and around Kharkiv. Unless the reports are very wrong or something very new has developed. R is still shelling kharkiv with rockets and artillery from afar. Their standard practice. Doesn’t look like they’re going to try to push hard to take it now.

Rather, it appears R has shifted men and artillery to their big push in the East against Lysychansk. Per Denys Davydov (a Ukrainian who doesn’t whitewash it), there, the Southern wing of R’s “pinchers” movement is making big strides and the U troops are in serious danger of being encircled.

 

[Monahorns]

Thanks Chop. It aligns with the news I am hearing. Where there isn't a strategic goal Russia is using artillery to kill Ukrainian army as a resource drain. There continue to be threats from Russia to "mobilize" or bring more onto the fronts. This is from a very pro-Ukrainian Latvian reporter. His comments are still optimistic about Ukraine but describes the situation where Russia could bring many more resources to the fronts if they decide to.

 

[Chop]

Davydov reports some minor gains by U in the South. The question down there is whether Russia has moved too much to the East to the neglect of the South, and whether U can exploit this situation and take Kherson—and perhaps even advance on the Crimea. This front is apparently wide up in the air, with no consensus over who will prevail in the South. This is also where a good Navy would be good to have (for either side).

 

[Monahorns]

I think R will fight to their death for Crimea. I don't see any credible idea that U will take it back. Maybe if the US military is brought in.

 

[Chop]

Per Denys Davydov—Lysychansk has fallen. The pinchers move—especially from the South—by R, with big numbers and much artillery, did them in. U was able to evacuate most of their soldiers before getting encircled. U has withdrawn to the West and is reforming defensive lines there. This big battle (for Sievierodonetsk and it’s twin city Lysychansk) has easily been Russia’s biggest win of the war.

Not from Davydov but still noteworthy—apparently Kramatorsk is the big prize in that part of the country (Eastern Ukraine). Supposedly, there are truly MASSIVE natural gas reserves around Kramatorsk. It’s not far West of Lysychansk. More on that—it’s the Yuzivska gas field. Truly massive reserves. Largely still undeveloped. Royal Dutch Shell had been working to develop it before the war. Whatever else happens, I doubt Putin will stop until he captures that big gas field, or loses after multiple attempts. If Ukraine maintains the Yuzivska gas field, U will be a major competitor of Russia in the European natural gas market.

 

[Monahorns]

The big question now is how far will Russia attempt to go. I agree they will probably take the gas field. They have already taken over areas with similar resources.

But will they attack Odessa? Will they push to Transnistria? Who knows. This would be a good time to negotiate. Maybe negotiation results in Russia from taking less land not more. If Ukraine gave them official promises to stay out of NATO and recognize Donbas and Crimea is gone. It could satisfy Russia. But who knows at this point. People like Max Boot in the US have said that this is the US's war. People like Kinzinger have said that the neoliberal order will only be maintained if the fighting continues. Biden officials have said that Americans need to suffer inflation and high gas prices particularly because the war in Ukraine is so important for "democracy". Meanwhile Zelensky suspends political parties that don't agree with him. They are "Pro-Russian" I guess, but I am not sure what that means or what they are advocating for.

 

[Musburger1]

Interesting that this was posted by a relatively high ranked Russian military official. The Duma will convene Friday. There is a possibility that a policy of escalation will be implemented. Not good.

 

[Monahorns]

If they think further violence is going to "end" the "SMO" which should be called a war, they are truly foolish. This will only end in a protracted insurgency war. The more land they try to control the hotter the insurgency will be and the more the West will be involved. They need to scale back expectations and negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine. Smh.

 

[Musburger1]

If they think further violence is going to "end" the "SMO" which should be called a war, they are truly foolish. This will only end in a protracted insurgency war. The more land they try to control the hotter the insurgency will be and the more the West will be involved. They need to scale back expectations and negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine. Smh.

No, its much worse than that. It means the US/NATO will be forced to either capitulate or escalate which would mean direct war with Russia. I think that's where its headed anyway, but a change in Russian policy will only accelerate the process. And with the Neocons running US and NATO, the only way to confront Russia and not lose means nukes...in which case there is no winner.

 

[Chop]

1. At this point, is Russia still seeking complete conquest of the entirety of Ukraine, or just those regions with a large % of Russian ethnics?

2. So when does Putin’s lackey in ByeloRussia join in on the war? As I said upstream, he strikes me as a less competent, buffoonish sort of guy when compared with Putin. A Mussolini type. His “help” may turn out to not be worth that much to Putin. Does he stay out and reserve his troops to defend against Poland (which would probably only strike if some NATO rule was triggered)? Does Putin order him to maintain his troops in a defensive posture against incursions from the West? Or does he just keep a bunch of troops near the Northern border of Ukraine to threaten them? Another possibility is that Russia uses ByeloRussian troops under Russian command in the East of Ukraine.

 

[Musburger1]

1. At this point, is Russia still seeking complete conquest of the entirety of Ukraine, or just those regions with a large % of Russian ethnics?

I'll speculate. I think Russia will basically annex up to the Kneiper River along the middle of the country and the entire coast including Odessa. But I think the potential escalation means using missiles and standoff weapons to destroy the Zelensky regime in Kiev. This does not mean take the city, but destroy the governmental/decision making centers including any NATO related personnel. So the SMO operation will continue throughout the Russian speaking regions, but a warlike heavy bombardment would hit Liev and Kiev. This in essence means complete destruction of what's left of the Ukraine economy and political structures. Will the West stand by and let this happen? I don't think there's anything the West can do about it short of a nuclear response. And that would be insane.

2. So when does Putin’s lackey in ByeloRussia join in on the war? As I said upstream, he strikes me as a less competent, buffoonish sort of guy when compared with Putin. A Mussolini type. His “help” may turn out to not be worth that much to Putin. Does he stay out and reserve his troops to defend against Poland (which would probably only strike if some NATO rule was triggered)? Does Putin order him to maintain his troops in a defensive posture against incursions from the West? Or does he just keep a bunch of troops near the Northern border of Ukraine to threaten them? Another possibility is that Russia uses ByeloRussian troops under Russian command in the East of Ukraine.

I suspect that the US/NATO may be able to goad the Poles into attacking Belarus or moving into Ukraine. If Belorus is attacked, they'll respond. By the way, Russia is going to provide the Byelorus air force with nuclear weapons.

 

[Chop]

Russia asked Iran for some drones.

Iran turned Russia down.

Iran said NYET!

 

[Chop]

Per Denys Davydov. A deal is in the works between U, R, the UN, and Turkey to get the grain out and prevent mass starvation in the Middle East. Turkey will escort the grain ships from Odessa through the Black Sea. Russia won’t attack the grain ships. Grain from both Russia and Ukraine can freely sail through the Black Sea and Bosporus Straits (Turkey) and nobody will attack the grain ships. There may be some UN inspection or something involved (grain only on the ships—not ammunition etc.).

It’s not a done deal yet, but it’s got a real good chance of getting over the goal line. This is a glimmer of decency in a nasty war.

 

[Musburger1]

 

[Chop]

Some news reports indicate that Russia recently started sending gas to Germany via the Nordstream pipelines again. Germany needs the gas. Russia needs the money…

 

[Chop]

Russia is flip flopping back and forth. Now they’re getting tough on supplying gas to Germany again. Europe is planning a gas rationing program for the upcoming winter. Euros are now un-freezing some Russian assets in Euro banks and playing ‘Let’s Make a Deal.’ Europe is looking desperate and vulnerable. Frankly, it seems that they painted themselves into this corner.

As discussed elsewhere, the Germans are now going back to coal energy. They’re even planning to burn lots of wood for basic heating needs this winter. Meanwhile, Putin struck some deals with the Persians while Biden struck out diplomatically with the Saudis. Putin is having a moment in the sun. He should enjoy it. Chances are it won’t last.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Putin is having a moment in the sun. He should enjoy it. Chances are it won’t last.

So long as 1.) he's willing to go all the way, 2.) he can find other buyers for his oil and gas (which he will), 3) the West is unwilling to intervene directly, and 4) the West keeps farting around with green energy, I'm not sure what would end his moment. Until Western Europe finds a long term source of oil and gas, Putin has them by the balls. They should have started looking back in 2014 (and arguably back in 2008), but they listened to the Greta Thunbergs instead.

 

[Monahorns]

Germany is going back to coal. I think there is a decent amount of coal in Western Europe. If push comes to shove, I think they go back to that. They will have to give some excuse or redefine coal as a natural battery of something. They won't reject green wokeness at this point, but they have no logical basis for anything either. Therefore, they can create any narrative they need ex nihilo that serves their ends.

 

[Monahorns]

Russia is flip flopping back and forth. Now they’re getting tough on supplying gas to Germany again. Europe is planning a gas rationing program for the upcoming winter. Euros are now un-freezing some Russian assets in Euro banks and playing ‘Let’s Make a Deal.’ Europe is looking desperate and vulnerable. Frankly, it seems that they painted themselves into this corner.

My big concern is that Russian isn't going to allow grain shipments out of Ukraine. It was a bit of a ray of sunshine when it looked like there was an agreement to allow it. But now Russia is shelling Odessa and Nikolaev. So that may have fallen through. If so, they should be hotly criticized for shutting off grain shipments.

 

[OUBubba]

Germany is going back to coal. I think there is a decent amount of coal in Western Europe. If push comes to shove, I think they go back to that. They will have to give some excuse or redefine coal as a natural battery of something. They won't reject green wokeness at this point, but they have no logical basis for anything either. Therefore, they can create any narrative they need ex nihilo that serves their ends.

I'm not an energy expert. I believe we've established that previously. But, their realistic options are coal, natural gas, or nuclear; right? In the near term, that is what all of us have to rely on. We need to figure out a way to make it allow the industry making a living off of producing energy move us to the next PRACTICAL option whenever that technology emerges.

The challenge is that the Manchin driven decision makers aren't going to go away from coal even if it wasn't our best option. We need to remove the ability for that kind of bias to enter into our country's long term (decades/centuries) energy policy.

 

[Musburger1]

My big concern is that Russian isn't going to allow grain shipments out of Ukraine. It was a bit of a ray of sunshine when it looked like there was an agreement to allow it. But now Russia is shelling Odessa and Nikolaev. So that may have fallen through. If so, they should be hotly criticized for shutting off grain shipments.

Who mined the waters around the port?

 

[Horn6721]

Mark it down.
Agree with Bubba
And something MANY of us have been saying all along.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Germany is going back to coal. I think there is a decent amount of coal in Western Europe. If push comes to shove, I think they go back to that. They will have to give some excuse or redefine coal as a natural battery of something. They won't reject green wokeness at this point, but they have no logical basis for anything either. Therefore, they can create any narrative they need ex nihilo that serves their ends.

Natural battery? Lol. Seems absurd, but it's no more ridiculous than the green energy lie they pitched to Western Europe.

There is coal in Western Europe, and they do have some nuclear power plants. However, there are two problems with that. First, it takes time to make those resources useful. They can't just switch them on and off. Western Europe is pissing their pants right now in anticipation of this coming winter, and those resources can't meaningfully help that quickly. Second, much of Europe (myself included) depends on heating oil to heat their homes and their water. I can't put coal or uranium in my heating oil tank.

 

[Chop]

Coal = "Energy Rocks"

 

[iatrogenic]

Mark it down.
Agree with Bubba
And something MANY of us have been saying all along.

Instead of statements like "we need to figure out a way to do x" how about we just let the market make the decisions. I don't want any of the fools in Washington making decisions as if they know better than the marketplace. They, like Bubba, are not experts in energy or any other subject.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

They, like Bubba, are not experts in energy or any other subject.

Careful. National level politicians are experts in demagoguery, pandering, schmoozing, lying, cheating, stealing, feeding off the public $$$ trough, and manipulating their constituents. They are truly spectacularly talented people.