The Russians are Coming, The Russians are Coming

Statalyzer said:
What is Ukraine supposed to do to "work with" Russian's desire to conquer their nation? That wouldn't be a trade, that would be extortion.
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They don't want to conquer their nation. They are just afraid of NATO setting up missile launchers right across their borders. Putin had a chance years ago to annex Donbas after they voted to go over to Russian, but Putin didn't want to.

Statalyzer said:
Russia doesn't have to worry about Ukrainian armies rolling through their streets.
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Whether they should or not they are afraid of NATO missile launchers.
 
Speech in the Russian Duma gives a perspective of how the Russian Government views the United States. If interested, you can hit the CC button which gives Russian caption. Then hit the settings button and under subtitles choose options and select English. Refers to the US as a power of darkness seeking world domination and so forth and gives quite a bit of support to this characterization. Google translation is only so good, but you get the guist.

 
Musburger1 said:
Refers to the US as a power of darkness seeking world domination and so forth and gives quite a bit of support to this characterization.
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This is true if focused on the bureaucratic state, Leftist politicians and NGOs, Hollywood, and Academia in the US. They are working for a Maoist style Cultural Revolution. We should all be fighting against this godless movement and welcome allies where we find them.
 
Btw, a week or so ago the Russian stock market started going up. That shows the people in power there are not worried about a war. Certainly they don't think the Russian government is preparing for war.

This is all for negotiating about missile launchers and some reassurance that Ukraine isn't up for a NATO membership.
 
Monahorns said:
Btw, a week or so ago the Russian stock market started going up. That shows the people in power there are not worried about a war. Certainly they don't think the Russian government is preparing for war.

This is all for negotiating about missile launchers and some reassurance that Ukraine isn't up for a NATO membership.
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Tend to agree with that assessment for the most part. However, Russia may be poised to initiate an economic response. The biggest trump card, particularly over Europe/NATO is gas exports.

It appears to me the US power brokers behind the scenes are divided. The war mongers may act independently to subvert any reconciliation movement advocated by saner individuals. Hence, policy can change on a dime or simply be undermined.
 
The Russians have always thought that the west was going to invade them, even when NATO forces were sitting in West Germany. There's really no changing their mind on the subject - it's part of their mindset.

I had no problems with expanding NATO to the Baltic counties, and Poland / Hungary, Romania, etc. Those are separate countries that Russia either controlled during the Cold War, or out and out invaded as in the Baltics after WWII.

But Ukraine, and Georgia membership in NATO is a different story. Not to say those countries don't deserve to have their own country and run it free from Russian control - but is it either worth:

A guarantee of war from the USA (which is what NATO really is - 90% USA, 10% UK in terms if military strength and willingness to use it)

Or the feeding in further into the Russia idea that everyone wants to invite them. A above, they are always going to think that - but having Ukraine in NATO feeds that mindset far more than having Estonia/Lat/Lith in NATO.

You would think the Russian are going to do something. Too much talk and huffing to just move all their troops away from the border, without getting much in return. But what? Full invasion? Possible but expensive and risky. Partial invasion? To what point - does that prevent NATO inclusion of Ukraine?

I think it's more likely Russia works out a deal with Germany and France for them not to support either NATO membership for Ukraine, or placement or sales of missiles to them. In return, Russia doesn't invade, and so there's neither a war in Europe, or do France / Germany have to do anything about it.

One thought line is that Putin won't do anything during the Genocide Games, which are serving as Winning the XI Poo's grand coronation of his glorious rule. So after those in when the rubber may meet the road.
 
Poland is probably where the bloody red line will be drawn.

Russia is a big regional bully, but we don’t go to war over Ukraine. Probably not over the Baltics either.

Note, Finland can take care of itself. They handed the Red Army it’s *** during WWII. They’re one country even better than Russia at winter ground fighting way, way up North.
 
The Finns still lost to the Russians in the Winter War - it's why they later aligned with the National Socialists to try to get some of their territory back.

In various Finnish history museums in Helsinki, they gloss and hemm and haw over that part of their history. You have to read between the lines to figure out who exactly they partnered up with during that time period, as they don't come out and say it.

Plus that was 80 years ago, and soft times since then have led to soft men. I'd expect a far different result this time.

Hard to judge about the interest level of the military in a war with Russia. Afghanistan was the ideal situation for them - spend lots of money, create PowerPoint slides that listed a bunch of worthless metrics like number of girls in school or miles of roads paved (none of which prevented the Taliban from showing up and the Afgan Army throwing their guns down and running away).

Do your "combat tour" safe in Bagram Air Base, then move onto a promotion, or retire and go to work for a defense contractor.

A nasty war with the Russians, even if not a full on major theater conflict, is a different story for what is a totally risk adverse military. The days of General Jack Ripper are over, and were always a Hollywood creations.
 
Duck Dodgers said:
The Russians have always thought that the west was going to invade them, even when NATO forces were sitting in West Germany. There's really no changing their mind on the subject - it's part of their mindset.
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Invasions don't happen every year. But only European countries have invaded them and always from the West. Napolean, the Polish/Lithuanian Empire, Nazi Germany are the examples. How many times does it have to happen before you as a country say, never again? That is what Russia has done. They know they need distance between belligerent countries and Moscow. NATO is acting as a belligerent organization right now, so Russia is creating a perimeter they know is necessary to survive.
 
The Baltic states also fought with the Nazis because they didn't want to be a part of the Soviet Union. They weren't pro-Nazi they were just anti-Soviet.
 
Russia and Iran have recently moved closer (The President of Iran visited Russia earlier this year as a guest and spoke at the Kremlin). The secondary effects relate to Israel. As you may know, Israel frequently bombs Syria with impunity and has assisted militants against Assad. Russia previously just got out of the way so long as Israel stayed away from the Russian military. Well now, Russia seems to have told Israel "no more."

 
Chop said:
That being said, you know there’s a segment of our foreign policy apparatus and of the military (more Army Generals than Navy/Marines) that would draw the bloody red line for war at one inch of Russian incursion into Ukraine.
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Kinda, sorta but not really. There are American diplomats and military officials who talk a lot of ****, but none have any expectation of actually intervening in a major war to protect Ukraine. Furthermore, with Biden telling Putin he can basically "put the tip of it in," nobody thinks the West is going to be war over this.
 
Musburger1 said:
Russia and Iran have recently moved closer (The President of Iran visited Russia earlier this year as a guest and spoke at the Kremlin). The secondary effects relate to Israel. As you may know, Israel frequently bombs Syria with impunity and has assisted militants against Assad. Russia previously just got out of the way so long as Israel stayed away from the Russian military. Well now, Russia seems to have told Israel "no more."

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Israel is working the diplomacy and compromising with the Rus so they’ll have air passage through Eastern Syria to Iran. Iran is a hostile nation that wants to annihilate Israel.
 
Interesting week. Both the US and Russia has begun pulling out (US) or reducing (Russia) embassy personnel. Many other countries have done the same. The US keeps saying (for months now) that an invasion is imminent. France, Germany, and the US keep requesting meetings with Russia, only to spew the same rhetoric over and over and yielding no change in either side.

As far as the repeated allegations that an invasion is imminent, if there isn't one, that only reinforces the lack of credibility (Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, Trumpgate, Covid, etc.) the various intelligence and other agencies have with the public. On the other hand, both the US and Russia have been saying the other side is planning a "false flag" which would ignite a war. What do you think will come next?
 
I dunno. I hope for peace, but it wouldn’t surprise me if, by this time next year, Russia is a bit larger and Ukraine is a bit smaller.
 
Monahorns said:
I will go on record as saying there will not be an invasion.
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I find it rather telling how the mainstream media doesn't want to talk to Ukrainian citizens and politicians, all of whom generally do not seem concerned. This IS looking like a #WagTheDog situation to distract from Biden's spectacularly failed first year.

Even the AP is taking the State Department to task in pressers which CSPAN carried. That level of pushback used to only come from Fox or OANN and was hand-waved away because...Fox and OANN. The current regime has come to expect that they can just lie and get away with it...AP asked for receipts and it was clear State was not ready for that sort of questioning.
 
Our administration and State Dept sure have been sending a lot of mixed messages to Putin. It’s gone from “a minor incursion” would be ok, to “severe consequences” will result, and now to a vague “we’ve done what we can, the ball is in Russia’s court”….

If we’re playing the intentionally ambiguous card, we sure are awkward and clumsy about it. It’s coming across more as an “Oops, I shouldn’t have said that, let me now contradict myself and crawfish back on my previous dumb statement.” We’re not exactly projecting that we know what the f@ck we’re doing.
 
Chop said:
Our administration and State Dept sure have been sending a lot of mixed messages to Putin. It’s gone from “a minor incursion” would be ok, to “severe consequences” will result, and now to a vague “we’ve done what we can, the ball is in Russia’s court”….

If we’re playing the intentionally ambiguous card, we sure are awkward and clumsy about it. It’s coming across more as an “Oops, I shouldn’t have said that, let me now contradict myself and crawfish back on my previous dumb statement.” We’re not exactly projecting that we know what the f@ck we’re doing.
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If the policy is that you really don't want Bad Apple A to do a bad thing but that you aren't willing to use force to stop Bad Apple A, then you really don't have a policy. If you don't have a policy, it's hard to look like you know what you're doing.
 
Chop said:
. It’s coming across more as an “Oops, I shouldn’t have said that, let me now contradict myself and crawfish back on my previous dumb statement.” We’re not exactly projecting that we know what the f@ck we’re doing.
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In other words...Monday.

At NO point in the first year of the Biden schiff-show has this regime shown that it has a clue. As a result, someone watched Wag the Dog and decided it would be a great idea to create a distraction in some nation that means nothing to the US in the grand scheme. The only remaining question is who plays Dustin Hoffman and gets suicided on THIS one...
 
Crazy I know but the thought has occurred to me what if Putin does not invade and then Biden takes the credit. They have to do something to turn this rating collapse around so nothing would surprise me.
 
humahuma said:
Who thinks the Biden administration knows what they are doing?
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Is that "who thinks the Biden administration knows what the Biden administration is doing" or is that "who thinks the Biden administration knows what the Russians are doing"?

Because the answers are "nobody" and "many," respectively.
 
Russia has stated they will not "invade" Ukraine. They also said they will respond with military and technical measures. So the US (the crazy faction that runs policy) may get their war...just not where they expect it. By the way, Russia expelled the #2 US diplomat in Moscow today.

Russia Responds

Excerps from the article.

Washington has “cherry picked” some “convenient” topics out of a set of “indivisible” proposals and has further “twisted” them to create security advantages for the US and its allies, the ministry said, in an assessment of America’s security proposals. Such actions “raise doubts” as to the US’ willingness to improve European security, the Russian diplomats have added.

“Our ‘red lines’; our key security interests and Russia’s sovereign right to defend them are still being ignored,” the ministry said, adding that Moscow would have to respond with “military and technical measures.”

Russia also blasted ongoing Western media reports and officials’ statements about the supposedly planned invasion of Ukraine, saying the only purpose of such an information campaign is to “exert pressure” on Moscow and “discredit” Russia’s security proposals.

“No ‘Russian invasion’ into Ukraine the US and its allies have been talking about since autumn has taken place or is planned,” the ministry has said, adding that Moscow cannot be blamed for the rising tensions in Europe.
 
Too funny
After weeks of Biden et al fear mongering a Russian invasion of Ukraine now they will take credit for averting an invasion.
And the Dem media will slobber and fawn all over Biden et al.
 
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