The Russians are Coming, The Russians are Coming
- Thread starter Musburger1
- Start date
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
The Cossacks are such badasses too. Probably Russia went after Ukraine in part because they feared the Cossacks.
It depends on whom you ask. I'd basically gamble my left nut that they'll have one within the next ten years mostly because nobody really cares to prevent it. We all say we care, but we care like I care about starving children in Madagascar. I'd like to see the children fed, but am I really going to go to a lot of trouble to make sure they are? No.
Oh, I can think of one highly competent nation that really cares to prevent it. And we won’t stop them. In fact, with the right administration in place, we’d even encourage it and help them make it happen.
So long as Germany is dependent on Russian oil and gas and makes self-flagellation an Olympic sport, Russia doesn't fear Germany beyond Germany's willingness to be a base for the US to project power. If Germany elected a right-wing Chancellor who wanted to reopen the issue of Germany's eastern border (meaning push it beyond the Oder-Neiße line like Helmut Kohl briefly suggested after reunification), I suppose Russia and obviously Poland would start fearing them, but the odds of that happening are spectacularly small.
Yes, but how far are they really willing to go? Airstrikes? Sure. Ground troops and a real war? No.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
It goes back to competition, especially with respect to energy. Both the US and Russia desperately want a piece of the oil/gas/mineral profits in Eurasia. Make no mistake, the USA is an imperialist country and given the opportunity, any capital driven economy/nation will use imperialism as means to further expand its economic sphere of influence.
In the past decade, the US has launched or assisted military operations in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The US has attempted (both successfully and unsuccessfully) color revolutions in Ukraine, Belarus, and recently Kazakhstan. The US has grown NATO to encroach on Russia's former Soviet neighbors.
In the short run, what are Russia's goals? They spelled them out publicly just a few weeks ago. They want a written assurance of specific actions to assure their security. Russia made it clear that without these assurances they will act and are prepared to act militarily. The US has openly rejected to discuss the points Russia deemed critical.
Now the question is what comes next? I think Russia will either launch an attack or take steps moving closer to war.
So you're saying, for Russia, this is ultimately about making more $$$ selling oil and gas to Eurasia...?
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
That's an oversimplification, but the best I can do in a few paragraphs.
Look back in history. Name any great empire (Roman, Mongal, Ming, Japanese, Spanish, British, etc.) and you'll see imperialism. In the modern day, the US has used finance and hybrid war in sophisticated ways to lessen the dependency on military conquest and occupation. But its nothing new. Rome and Britain used regional puppets to govern (think Pontius Pilate and Viceroys). The US uses bribes and intelligence operations to influence foreign governments.
As Russia and China gain power, they will no doubt behave in the same way. I'm not saying its right, its just the way it is.
You are now less naive and crazy than Monahorns.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Please elaborate. I misread initially as you saying "more naive and crazy". But elaborate anyway.
I agree that Russia (and China) will seek to maximize their own national power and prestige. That's what powerful nations do. Russia has a problem, an inherent weakness, in that it's not a sea power, and never has been. Russia is a nation that got its a$$ absolutely handed to it by Japan at sea--on more than one occasion. Those naval losses to Japan had a lot to do with the downfall of the last Czar. Hence, they can only really control nearby lands.
Even hard core Russian nationalist and mystic Aleksandr Dugin (Putin's Rasputin...) recognizes this and classifies Russia (and Germany, and China) as land people (traditional/conservative), while the US and Britain are sea people (cosmopolitan/mercantile). He gets pretty weird, putting a spiritual/occult/mystic take on it, and even brings it back to Rome vs. Carthage... But he has Putin's ear. Interestingly enough, Steve Bannon is something of a Dugin disciple as well.
If Russia will just be Russia, and produce much oil and gas and be happy with their current borders, they'd probably be better off than if they try to re-create a Russian empire. Russia has massive mineral wealth, massive intellectual/scientific/educational/engineering power, an ancient historical Eastern take on Christianity (and some of the world's most beautiful church buildings), and massive cultural treasures to give World civilization. There is simply no need to bully their (often pathetic) neighbors. Russia will likely be around for another 1,000 years.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Dion!
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Obviously nations do whatever they can get away with. They are beasts after all.
But what Russia and China are doing right now are improving security in their region of the world. Russia has Western adversaries literally at their borders currently. I expect them to push back. After that, will they try to take over the world? It isn't a stated goal. They don't have the resources in people, economy, or military to do that, so I don't see them as a credible global threat. Putin's regime is seen more or less as an a large mafia, so there isn't a real reason to ally with them unless you need oil and gas. But even then the need is for economic interaction.
China is in a similar situation. However they aren't as threatened as Russia and more resources to project power with. But think clearly about them. They haven't attacked Taiwan. That scare has come and gone. There are real obstacles to doing that which will never go away and I am not even referring to the US military there. They aren't threatening South Korea or Vietnam. They aren't threatening Japan. They are trying to secure the South China sea which is basically their Caribbean. It is a reasonable thing for them to pursue. Once they get it or if they get it will they start charging a toll to use the sea lanes? No evidence of that. They aren't even threatening Mongolia. The situation should be monitored closely and the US should ally with other countries around them. But mainly we need to develop new supply chains so that the US isn't so dependent on China for goods. That will greatly weaken them and could harm their economy if they don't liberalize further and expand what they do.
Further, I have even read reports that China and Russia will have trouble holding their current borders together. There is a bigger chance that they don't than they would expand.
The main thing for me though is I don't believe in statism. I don't believe in central planning or cronyism. Those things harm a country they don't empower them. If you are afraid of China and Russia, what you are really saying about yourself is that you believe central planning and totalitarianism are buidl wealth, build strength, and lead to better national outcomes over large periods of time.
I believe the opposite based on history and supported by sound understandings of economics and politics. Freedom, laissez-faire does all the things statists imagine large governments do.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration grows publicly pessimistic. Today, Jen piss-saki admitted that Russia could attack Ukraine at any point. Joe is sending Blinken to negotiate with Putin’s guy on Friday.* Russia has started evacuating its diplomats from their embassy in Ukraine.
* I hope our diplomats can accomplish something, but I’m not holding my breath.
* I hope our diplomats can accomplish something, but I’m not holding my breath.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
A Russian attack seems inevitable at this point. One would hope the idiots in Washington have a plan at what comes next. If Germany pulls out of Nordstream 2 Europe freezes. If the US decides to send heavy arms into the Baltics or Poland whose to say Russia doesn’t obliterate those sights? If I were Putin, that would be my response.
Ukrainian civilians are rushing to join their version of the National Guard/Reserves en masse for some hasty training and preparation for what may be coming soon.
Russia is now also massing tanks and troops in Belarus at the Ukraine’s Northern border (as well as on Ukraine’s Eastern border, where they’ve been for a while).
per DW News.
Russia is now also massing tanks and troops in Belarus at the Ukraine’s Northern border (as well as on Ukraine’s Eastern border, where they’ve been for a while).
per DW News.
This is why almost all of my Networking and IT Security books are electronic. Easily updated. You may need a set of Crayons to define new borders / countries as things unfold.
Today MSNBC talking heads and foreign affairs experts, including Vindman (who just said “we’re about to have the largest war in Europe since WWII”, and “we’re almost locked in to a course of action”) are predicting its going down soon—and it won’t stop at the Ukraine…. Per Vindman—war in February, maybe even late January.
And now Sweden and Finland are inquiring about joining NATO. Also, today Putin’s henchmen are talking bluster about sending Russian troops to Cuba and Venezuela…
Still an outside chance diplomacy will work and/or Putin will blink, but don’t hold your breath. Well, at least we have Joe in the White House…
And now Sweden and Finland are inquiring about joining NATO. Also, today Putin’s henchmen are talking bluster about sending Russian troops to Cuba and Venezuela…
Still an outside chance diplomacy will work and/or Putin will blink, but don’t hold your breath. Well, at least we have Joe in the White House…
OUBubba
5,000+ Posts
I think their end game is to increase Russia's standing when compared to the rest of the countries. Knocking down the US, Brittain, etc. improves their standing relatively. I think the leaders in there now have benefited GREATLY from their system. They are motivated to keep the status quo so that they can move to their various golden parachute locales and live out their life in the lap of luxury.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Edit to show inverse. Still holds true.
Now even Biden is saying Putin will move in on Ukraine. “He has to do something” said Biden in reference to Putin. “He’ll pay a serious and dear price for it.” “I think he’ll regret having done it.”
Biden then drew a distinction between what he called “a minor incursion” (which Biden implied might be ok), and a full blown big war.
per AP
Biden then drew a distinction between what he called “a minor incursion” (which Biden implied might be ok), and a full blown big war.
per AP
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
I think what Biden is saying in public and what he is saying to Putin are 2 different things. I think there is public saber rattling, but I don't think things are escalating from other reports I hear. Also from what i have heard, troop levels at border were never as large as 175,000 and Russia has no interest in invading Ukraine. They are pushing back on the existence of MK-12 rocket launchers in Romania and Poland. Attacking Ukraine makes it more likely missiles are shot at them which is opposite their goal of not being shot at.
Of course, who knows?
Of course, who knows?
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