Just to be clear, I'm not reacting like the sky screamer. Just pointing out that, of course, even though she would probably say war is bad and be happy to pull troops, since Trump is in charge, well, you know.
The First 100 days
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Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
$674 M seems like a lot under the circumstances -- but this is what they say the US owes the United Nations
My argument has long been that, in light of the fact that the US has been the defacto peacekeeping force in the world since the end of WWII, shouldn't they be paying us instead?
My argument has long been that, in light of the fact that the US has been the defacto peacekeeping force in the world since the end of WWII, shouldn't they be paying us instead?
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Remember about 9 months ago the fake news networks were all echoing a recession is coming? Well........yeah.
All of that was fake news
The hiring cool back in May was directly due to the opinion of Wall Street "analysts" and the Trump-hating media spreading panic for about 4 weeks. They kept bringing up the R-word.
But actual job loss was the same as the last few years average. Companies had simply decided not to hire. Why? Based on anything real? No. There was just so much media panic at the time they slowed hiring just to wait and see. That's all it was.
In an actual economic slowdown, the first thing to cool is wages and pay. Then hiring slows. Then comes the job losses (people get fired). Makes sense, yes? But in May 2019, wages were rising right into the cooling of new hiring. This was a signal that it was not real (and I pointed out the wage growth in here). Was just another temporary Wall Street freak out (exasperated by those in the media who wanted the US to go into a recession to punish the orangeman)
The reality is that the US economy has been growing for ~10 years, which I think is the longest expansion on record. So the expectation became that a slowdown must be around the corner. "Analysts" and financial writers had been waiting for an excuse to bring up "recession" and had already written their articles. But all of this opinion was emotion-driven not data-driven. Still, it was enough hoo-hah to move the bond market. Prices went up and yields fell. The result? We got headlines saying that "the bond markets were signaling a recession."
That was wrong. The yield curve doomsday scenario was wrong (it corrected). But some over-reactionary people, like Paul Krugman, over-reacted and sold everything. For them, these "signs" from the NFP and yield curve were confirmation bias that Trump was going to create another Great Depression. Once the dust settled, Krugman (and those market participants who think Krugman is smart) had lost money. Quite a bit of money. Other traders/investors made money. That's the way it goes.
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Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
A couple examples --
Erie, OH Unemployment in Oct 2019 is 4.3% which is lower than the 6.1% of Dec 2016.
Racine, WI is now at 3.5% versus 4.0% as of Dec 2016
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Erie, OH Unemployment in Oct 2019 is 4.3% which is lower than the 6.1% of Dec 2016.
Racine, WI is now at 3.5% versus 4.0% as of Dec 2016
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Here are two more examples --
VIX average in 2019: 16
VIX long-term average, since its creation in 1990: 19
Number of days this year S&P moved 1%: 38 days
Average for full year, going back to 1958: 53 days
So despite certain media outlets screaming "recession" for 2 or 3 months, US markets in 2019 were actually pretty calm
VIX average in 2019: 16
VIX long-term average, since its creation in 1990: 19
Number of days this year S&P moved 1%: 38 days
Average for full year, going back to 1958: 53 days
So despite certain media outlets screaming "recession" for 2 or 3 months, US markets in 2019 were actually pretty calm
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Back on Jan. 29, 2018, the FBI's Robert Wray issued a statement rebutting the Nunes Memo on FISA abuses and warning Trump not to declassify or release it. He sad he had "grave concerns" with "inaccuracies and omissions" in the memo.
Now we know Wray was lying too. He was in full butt-covering mode.
He has to go.
FBI expresses 'grave concerns' over accuracy of Republican surveillance memo
If you listen to Paul Krugman, you aren't smart. And that was true before Trump. He has been discredited for 25 years. He's the Jim Bakker of economists.
We have a big FBI, because we have a big mess of federal criminal laws. Back in the day, the few federal laws we had were enforced by smaller law enforcement agencies like the Secret Service charged with enforcing specific federal laws. And of course, US Marshals enforced court orders, executed warrants, etc. We could go back to a system like that, but we'd have to get rid of a crapload of federal criminal laws.
One of our neighbors and a few of her friends are trying to go to the Trump rally in Kalamazoo tonight. They left last night to try to get in tonight.
I don't think she's racist or sexist or anything like that.
I don't think she's racist or sexist or anything like that.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
This article highlights Trump's failings so far. And I'm still waiting for him to pull troops out of the Middle East. Any.
Congress Spending Bill: Too Much Spending, Too Many Regulations | National Review
Congress Spending Bill: Too Much Spending, Too Many Regulations | National Review
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
I don't understand how the graph follows your comment. The graph compares FedEx to S&P 500.
Strong currency doesn't really hurt economy or exports really. It only hurts exports in the sense that other countries who are busy devaluing their currency become poorer and poorer and can't buy anything other than subsistence. Strong currencies help poor people even more than wealthy by keeping value in the $s in their pockets. They typically don't have financial and real estate assets that appreciate fast enough to keep up with $ devaluation.
Strong $s help poor people but it means the FedGov has to pay more interest on their debt because interest rates will increase as $ value increases.
I am for an economy that helps poor people over the government.
Where's the Inflation? It's in Stocks, Real Estate, and Higher Ed | Ryan McMaken
Strong currency doesn't really hurt economy or exports really. It only hurts exports in the sense that other countries who are busy devaluing their currency become poorer and poorer and can't buy anything other than subsistence. Strong currencies help poor people even more than wealthy by keeping value in the $s in their pockets. They typically don't have financial and real estate assets that appreciate fast enough to keep up with $ devaluation.
Strong $s help poor people but it means the FedGov has to pay more interest on their debt because interest rates will increase as $ value increases.
I am for an economy that helps poor people over the government.
Where's the Inflation? It's in Stocks, Real Estate, and Higher Ed | Ryan McMaken
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
The weak dollar is very shortsighted. It can give a little bit of a sugar rush to some industries that export and make imports cost more. However, in the long term (and even medium term), you're working with a currency that buys less. That means it's going to be harder to buy imported goods (including raw materials), and that's going to hinder growth.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
(1) Trump took a lot of crap back in Jul 2018 for calling Merkel out
(2) So then in late Oct,early Nov 2019 - Merkel and Putin bypassed Ukraine and Poland with Nordstream pipeline through Danish waters Denmark Approves Route for a Controversial Russia-German Pipeline - T…
You might also recall what Russia was doing in Ukraine with Russian gas? They ran a pipeline through Ukraine, then out of Ukraine, then back in Ukraine, then back out so they could avoid legal sanction and sell it as "Ukraine Gas" - this was their "Plan B"
(3) And now Trump responded with what is included in the new defense bill -- which effectively shut down the pipeline through Danish waters -- Merkel not happy/Europeans freaking out (you might remember my post from my Italian friend a few days ago in the chatroom? this is what he was talking about)
(2) So then in late Oct,early Nov 2019 - Merkel and Putin bypassed Ukraine and Poland with Nordstream pipeline through Danish waters Denmark Approves Route for a Controversial Russia-German Pipeline - T…
You might also recall what Russia was doing in Ukraine with Russian gas? They ran a pipeline through Ukraine, then out of Ukraine, then back in Ukraine, then back out so they could avoid legal sanction and sell it as "Ukraine Gas" - this was their "Plan B"
(3) And now Trump responded with what is included in the new defense bill -- which effectively shut down the pipeline through Danish waters -- Merkel not happy/Europeans freaking out (you might remember my post from my Italian friend a few days ago in the chatroom? this is what he was talking about)
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Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
I dont know if people here care about this stuff^? - I admit its getting pretty deep into the weeds. But its a good snapshot of how DC works. There was a lot of big money lobbying going on over Nordstream
Check it out -- Listed as lobbying for Nord Stream before the House Rules Committee was woman who worked for both Ryan and Boehner
LD-1 Disclosure Form
Lydia Calio Strunk – Roberti Global
Also lobbying for GAZPROM/Nord Stream was John Ashcroft's former chief of staff
LD-1 Disclosure Form
Bob Ferguson - The Hawksbill Group
None of these people like Trump or what he is doing
Check it out -- Listed as lobbying for Nord Stream before the House Rules Committee was woman who worked for both Ryan and Boehner
LD-1 Disclosure Form
Lydia Calio Strunk – Roberti Global
Also lobbying for GAZPROM/Nord Stream was John Ashcroft's former chief of staff
LD-1 Disclosure Form
Bob Ferguson - The Hawksbill Group
None of these people like Trump or what he is doing
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Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
This is about international corruption, oligarchs, govt officials, stolen money and the 2016 US presidential election
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