North pole to melt this year?

good question Johnny M, i have heard that but never actually seen it. at any rate the trend has been almost flat and now it is headed downwards. doesn't seem like some radical fluctuation yet. i guess we will see what happens.

i must admit, i am starting to buy into the sun theories. as the sun has been VERY VERY quiet of late and some are beginning to think we may have something unusual happening i am intrigued to see what comes of it. we are about 16 months past when the main predictors though that solar cycle 24 would be ramping up....but they keep having to put their predictions off as it is WAY behind what they suggested. needless to say, relatively little is understood about the sun, and no doubt it will ramp back up one of these days, but it correlates (i am aware of falling into the classic fallacy here!) incredibly well with the recent drop in temperatures we have experienced.....
 
actually Texoz....that doesn't really follow at all. as i said recently, if last year was the worst year on record, it is not surprising that this year would be near the worst even if the trend is actually being reversed (something we won't really know for several years). if a 500 lb pound man reaches 516 lbs before beginning a diet, he has to go through 515, 514 etc before getting down to 200 lbs.

it is similar to how James Hansen constantly mentions how this was the "nth" hottest year on record. well, with 1998 (and really 2002) being our 2 hottest years on record, it isn't at all surprising to find that we are still up at that level even if we have indeed begun to drop as it appears. so to say that 2008 will rank in the "top 10 hottest years ever" sounds impressive until you consider it a bit more. not to mention that 2008 is still COOLER than 1988 in terms of the first 7 months according to the satellite data. so 20 years have passed and this year is not any warmer than 1988 thus far (August is looking to be another cold one actually)


Editorial response to Texoz' article
 
mop, I guess you haven't done the homework with albedo effect? Nor has the person linked in your article.

Here's the short of it. The Arctic Ocean is now storing heat, which is preventing the ice from regaining the thickness it needs to maintain small yearly fluctuations up and down in ice extent.

It is losing ice at a catastrophic rate and there's no going back...short of another catastrophic event, i.e. volcanic or cosmic.

A bell has been rung that can't be unrung.

It's that simple.
 
actually i did do some research. but that is a theory that has some possible other explanations. time will tell if it is correct (it certainly could be!). for instance, the fact that the entire globe is cooling right now, including the Arctic, may be a sign that this is correcting itself as we speak. we won't know for several years, but it may be that heat that is being released from the globe is primarily being released from the Arctic but will soon be dealt with. no one really knows for sure and all we can do is continue to study the evidence to see which theories best explain the situation.......it will be very interesting to see what happens this summer.....

Preliminary Unofficial Day 240 Race Report
2008 has a moderate day, remaining about 450K behind 2007.
8 28 2002 5.957656 -0.037657
8 28 2003 6.353125 -0.012344
8 27 2004 6.024844 -0.045781
8 28 2005 5.771250 -0.024844
8 28 2006 5.966406 -0.001719
8 28 2007 4.724844 -0.049062
8 27 2008 5.175313 -0.047656
 
Speaking of melting poles.


mira.jpg
 
This thread is an arcology of ignorance.

Physics be damned, congrats, mop, on apparently entirely avoiding the concept of a linear regression over the course of your life.
 
roy, not only have i not missed that, i have linked graphs to it. similarly the Antarctic has been growing for most of my life. my question is not about the particulars as much as the general. in other words, have we really anything to be concerned with yet? i am not convinced that we do....but time will obviously prove me wrong or right. i am fine with that.
 
Johnny, who are you kidding? if he whole western world went radically green today, we would still only affect things VERY slightly. I am all for taking care of the planet and we had better making some good changes, but if AGW theory is correct, we are fairly screwed. thankfully, i don't think it is.

actually, i say we are "screwed" but the truth is, i think innovation is the answer, not radical cutbacks alone.

in other news:

Preliminary Unofficial Day 241 Race Report
2008 has a very slow day, falling to about 500K behind 2007.
8 29 2002 5.912813 -0.044843
8 29 2003 6.337813 -0.015312
8 28 2004 5.971563 -0.053281
8 29 2005 5.728125 -0.043125
8 29 2006 5.957344 -0.009062
8 29 2007 4.664844 -0.060000
8 28 2008 5.163281 -0.015000
 
johnny, you are an angry person aren't you?

your anger is keeping you from seeing clearly. i have spoken at length in my global warming posts about how i feel about the environment. i personally do more than most liberals i know to take care of the planet. 6 years ago when i had to buy a new AC, i bought at 14.5 seer AC when the law was only 12. i regularly do things as a property owner (i own several properties) to do my part for the environment. i WANT us to have cleaner water, cleaner skies etc. i am all for reasonable standards, BUT, as i have said before, i HATE "panic" policy that leads to debacles like the ethanol scandal. we need to make wise decisions and make sustainable choices.

in fact, i will go further and say that i think that it honors God to take care of His creation. i think as a Christian that i am called to do so. I see recycling (although much of it is dubious in regards to how helpful it is) as an act of worship to God who created this planet.

so accuse away angry man, but your accusations are quite empty and meaningless if you look at my life. i know it is more fun to just spew venom though........and i don't mind too much. i have already relegated you to the "angry" crowd in my mind so i don't take it too personal.
 
naked you have me confused with someone else. if you find any post anywhere on hornfans where i have cussed i will personally write you a check for $100. (unless i am quoting someone because i could certainly see myself doing that)......

i have never said anything like that about Obama either. i actually like the man very much, i just don't share his policies so i won't be voting for him. i am not an angry person......you have me confused with someone else.

nice try!


ps i do say "crap" from time to time, but that is honestly the extent of my cursing in life....save a rare slip once every 2 years or so when i get particularly riled up about something.
 
no prob....but i didn't want it getting out there that i cussed or said mean things about obama (although i think it is fine to criticize a public figure on policy i think i am called to honor leaders even if i don't agree with them).
 
I'm not angry, I'm just not going to let you lie again and again. It's takes more than an internet fool to anger me mop, no offense.
 
you could have fooled me! (saying you aren't angry that is)

at any rate, i am not aware of anywhere that i have lied....at least not knowingly.....could you point out one of my lies?
 
I'll defend Mop. While I think his point of view about gw is 100% wrong, he makes a sincere effort to support his view and for the most part is very civil about the discussion.
 
thanks Texoz...i do appreciate that endorsement. there have been times in my life when that would not describe me at all, so it is nice to have someone notice what God has done with me.
 
Preliminary Unofficial Day 242 Race Report
2008 has a moderate day, losing another 6K to 2007.
8 30 2002 5.856250 -0.056563
8 30 2003 6.325938 -0.011875
8 29 2004 5.951406 -0.020157
8 30 2005 5.662344 -0.065781
8 30 2006 5.953594 -0.003750
8 30 2007 4.616094 -0.048750
8 29 2008 5.120938 -0.042187
 
Preliminary Unofficial Day 243 Race Report
2008 has another moderate day, gaining 18K on 2007.
8 31 2002 5.834844 -0.021406
8 31 2003 6.282188 -0.043750
8 30 2004 5.932188 -0.019218
8 31 2005 5.650938 -0.011406
8 31 2006 5.974688 0.021094
8 31 2007 4.607031 -0.009063
8 30 2008 5.088750 -0.027344
 
Preliminary Unofficial Day 245 Race Report
2008 has a very big day, now 350 behind 2007.
9 2 2002 5.781719 -0.028281
9 2 2003 6.217500 -0.000625
9 1 2004 5.893594 -0.024531
9 2 2005 5.670469 0.020938
9 2 2006 5.977813 -0.015625
9 2 2007 4.617031 0.006093
9 1 2008 4.964219 -0.065625
 
ice sheets have been breaking and moving around for millions of years.....is there some special reason that this one should alarm us Texoz?

in other news:

Preliminary Unofficial Day 247 Race Report
2008 slows for a day, falling to 380K behind 2007.
9 4 2002 5.701563 -0.034375
9 4 2003 6.148750 -0.050156
9 3 2004 5.887031 0.007031
9 4 2005 5.682500 -0.006875
9 4 2006 5.935313 -0.022812
9 4 2007 4.528125 -0.051875
9 3 2008 4.911563 -0.012656
 
so because one guy claims that an ecosystem in a certain relatively small ice shelf is "on the verge of extinction" we are supposed to be alarmed? has anyone else verified this? is there any reason to take him seriously? has this been studied and looked at by others?
 
i wonder what you would say if i paraded one solitary scientist's opinion as if it alone were authoritative GT.

as for the "race" comment, i am just cutting and posting from the raw data reported on climate audit each night. the "race" is almost over though and the OP's original article turned out to be VERY wrong (in terms of the north pole being ice free i mean).......

but we will keep watching it to see how well (or poorly) it recovers this year!
 
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