Mavs chances against the Nuggets

H

hornpharmd

5,000+ Posts
After Denver beat NOs by 58 last game I will go ahead and predict that Denver advances to the next round soon.

So can the Mavs beat the Nuggets, and what are their chances? Even though this is only a 1st round series the Mavs have finally gotten over the mental hump that was the Spurs. They are playing very well right now and have gained confidence.

Kidd isn't shooting well but he is distributing the ball, rebounding, and playing solid defense. Dirk played a great game 5 and if he can play anywhere near that level on a consistent basis then you have to like the Mavs chances.

On the other side of the ball you have a high scoring Denver team that has real leadership now under Billups. Billups is playing great thus far in the playoffs. Denver was the #1 offense in the NBA this year while Dallas was #3. What Dallas goes well Denver does slightly better.

Should be a fun series to watch, and very competitive.

What are the Mavs chances? They need to take 1 game in Denver early.
 
I think the Mavs should be the favorite... Now if just somehow the Rockets can finish off the Trailblazers and then pull off a miracle in the 2nd round
 
Mello and the Nuggets will sweep the Mavs. That soft serve center of the Mavs D might have worked againts the Spurs, but that is only team it will work against. Nene will eat Erica's lunch.
 
I'm not sure how rational Mavs fans would even try to spin this into a "competitive" series.

Denver is going to slaughter Dallas. The Mavs might sneak two games at home, but the Denver wins will be dominant.

Billups might not have Tony Parker speed, but he can shoot whenever he wants and distributes to his teammates with ease.

Martin can just stand there as a presence and the Mavs still wouldn't have any answer on offense.

No one will be able to defend Anthony.

Denver can spread its defensive fouls around better than almost any team because of depth. Birdman and Nene are going to frustrate a lot of people.
 
All regular season games between Dallas and Denver were very competitive with Denver pulling off all of them (or except maybe 1 if I remember correctly). They all came down to the wire, IIRC. That may not be an indication of how the playoff series will go, and Denver may come out and crush Dallas, but I think it will be a close series with Denver coming through in Game 6 or 7.
 
First off how in the **** do you just go and say denver is going to slaughter them? Billups is good but kidd is playing well right now. Nene sucks as does kenyon martin. Nobody is afraid of kenyon martin. And erick dampier is going to wear nenes *** out. Mavs in 6 only player we don't have an answer to is JR smith and if some of you would watch the games you would know that.
 
Denver will not slaughter the Mavs. I think they'll take the series, but not in some total mismatch.

Dallas is 0-4 versus Denver in '08-'09. Definitely seems to indicate a mismatch, but all of the games were close. Also, Dallas wasn't healthy in a few of those games.

1) Dallas is healthy
2) Dallas is playing better now than they have all season.

Denver takes the series, 4-2.
 
A much closer series should be expected, rather than the 0-4 losses by D to the Nuggets during the regular season. The one x-factor in my mind is Dirk. He won't have the luxury of shooting over 6'5" guys against Denver like he did versus the Spurs. Denver in 7.
 
hudsonhorn,

Agree 100%. To your point about defending Dirk, my memory may be fuzzy, but hasn't Dirk owned Kenyon Martin when they've met before? As athletic as Martin is, he frustrates easily against Diggler.

But yea, we won't see a player like Bonner out there guarding him.
 
Stat, maybe we weren't watching the same game. Dirk abused Udoka, Finley, Parker, Hill and every other guy he had a 6 or 7 inch advantage over. And Bonner (at 6'10") didn't do anything to stop him, either. The only guy that held him in check was Kurt Thomas and I'm damned if I can figure out why he didn't play him more against Dirk. All that said, I doubt the outcome would have been different. Against Denver, Dirk will have lots of big people thrown at him - we'll see how they do but at least they've got some big bodies to contest some shots.
 
I would give the Mavs a 33% chance.....Dirk is averaging 30 ppg against the Nuggets this season, and 3 of the 4 games were won by 2 points. I think it will be a competitive series, but like people have said, the Mavs are at the disadvantage in the matchup department. I don't see how they can affectively guard 'Melo.
 
Not sure where people are getting the "Mavs will be slaughtered" except that they are anti-Dallas in the same way lots of people are anti-Cowboys, anti-Yankees, etc.

The Mavs 4 games vs Nuggets were lost by the Mavs 3, 10, 2 and 2, and the last two games the Mavs were without Josh and the last game w/o Kidd. Take into account how much the Mavs have improved the last month and they have at least a 50/50 chance against the Nugs.

If they can get it to 2-2 then they'll just need to go 2-1. But, it will be a tough series but one in which the Mavs will enter with a high level of confidence.

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
Denver has played well against Dallas in recent seasons. I do think they are the hotter playing team right now. I favor Denver to win in 7 games.

The issue as one poster highlighted is that I don't think Dallas has a good answer for Melo and JR as a combo. Josh and Terry/JJB/Wright just aren't as strong offensively, and can't stop both imo.

If you actually watched the Dal/SAS series, you wouldn't bring up Dirk's stats. Pop did everything in his power to stop Dirk/Terry. It worked, but Dallas had other assets that performed. When he backed off, Dirk lit it up. Going into the playoffs this year, Dirk was one of five players all time to average 25/10 in the postseason. Dirk will do that against Denver.

The Kidd/Billups matchup is fun. Chauncey brings more offense. They match up well on strength, and toughness. Kidd does a better job defending the lanes.

Damp will have a bigger impact than Puff and Nene.

I think it will be an interesting series. A couple of really hot players will decide it (who they are I don't know, for sure). I wonder that Dallas can't stop Melo AND J.R. if they both get hot. If that happens, Denver wins.
 
Dirk presents all kinds of matchup problems for the Nuggets. They can leave Martin on him (which most on this board think they will do), but Dirk will likely take him out to the perimeter and hover around the three point line. This is a serious negative for Denver as it takes away Martin's strengths as a shot blocker and rebounder and leaves the lane open for Howard and Terry to drive. Martin might be able to shut Dirk's post game down, but that might end up an advantage for the Mavs.
 
Instead of speculating about Dirk's potential, why don't we just look up the numbers?

'08-'09 -- 30 points, 11.2 rebounds
'07-'08 -- 32 points, 11.5 rebounds
'06-'07 -- 26 points, 10.3 rebounds

We only played Denver three times last season, and Dirk didn't play in one of those games. Two seasons ago, he also missed one of the four meetings. I believe Martin has also missed some games during that three-year run, but their roster has been pretty consistent during the period, so I'm not sure the data is totally meaningless. I also realize those are all regular season games, but it's not as if we've lost games due to poor play from Dirk.

I just don't see this as the terrible matchup for Dirk that some of ya'll do.
 
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