INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

SabreHorn said:
mc,

Thank you for that post. I always appreciate the viewpoint of National Public Radio and their experts. In this case an expert of inflation with her degree in literature from Princeton. I have found that liberal English majors make the best business analysts.

:beertoast:
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Ha!

I guess we should hire philosophy majors to do geology reports.

Maybe we could save some $ by hiring an Art History major, instead of a CPA, to do our taxes.
 
proxy.php

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The Chair(wo)man of Mexico's Fed
images


Mexico Banxico Target Rate (%, eop).

“We expect Banxico to continue tightening until mid-2023, bringing the policy rate to 11.75%, and that it will hold the rate at that level until early 2024."
 
Chop said:
The 10 countries with the highest inflation in the world:

1. 440%........Venezuela
2. 139%........Syria
3. 124%........Lebanon
4. 98.8%.......Argentina
5. 92.3%.......Zimbabwe
6. 83.6%.......Sudan
7. 55.5%.......Suriname
8. 55.18%.....Turkey
9. 53.6%........Ghana
10. 50.6%......Sri Lanka

If only there was some sort of connection between these countries...


15 Countries with the Highest Inflation Rates
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Honorable mention:

Cuba........42.08%

Iran..........47.7%
 
Here's a better idea:

If more than a certain % of flights for a day are cancelled or delayed over a certain amount of time, the CEO of that airline must spend the next 24 hours in an airport (and outside the "Admirals Club", etc.).
 
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group

While inflation could see a 2 or 3 handle by year-end, it is where it settles out at on a sustainable basis in 2024 that should be most relevant. We know, though, that we have a slowdown in rents to come that will show up in the calculations and core inflation will continue to fall.
 
David Bahnsen, CIO at The Bahnsen Group,

The actual inflation rate is very likely at the Fed’s 2% target due to the way shelter and housing components are calculated. The housing component of CPI is largely representative of rental prices, which has a lag effect as renters typically lock-in their lease for long periods of time. Real estate prices across the board have declined considerably in recent months, and it’s going to take a few more months for the CPI to reflect this decline.
 
Inflation due to rents has peaked (see graph below). Once this flips, inflation will drop from 4.9% (today) to ~3% by October.
 
mchammer said:
David Bahnsen, CIO at The Bahnsen Group,

The actual inflation rate is very likely at the Fed’s 2% target due to the way shelter and housing components are calculated. The housing component of CPI is largely representative of rental prices, which has a lag effect as renters typically lock-in their lease for long periods of time. Real estate prices across the board have declined considerably in recent months, and it’s going to take a few more months for the CPI to reflect this decline.
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2%?
As stated, our home insurance premiums went up 40%. No offense intended, but in the nicest terms I can convey my disagreement on these reports of low inflation rates is "that's complete *********"
 
Page A2 of today's WSJ - High Inflation Is Bad, Accepting It Is Worse.

Compare today's inflation to the same day in 2019 (the last before COVID) or even 2021. It is up substantially and that increase is permanent.
 
ViperHorn said:
Page A2 of today's WSJ - High Inflation Is Bad, Accepting It Is Worse.

Compare today's inflation to the same day in 2019 (the last before COVID) or even 2021. It is up substantially and that increase is permanent.
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It's permanent. The only saving grace is if salaries/labor rates increase to the same degree. But I can say that mine haven't. Car insurance up 30% this year too.
 
Due to the sharp decrease in money supply, PPI will likely be deflationary (lower prices) by Fall:

1EDF5B00-4B8B-4B33-97B5-5F47182FF25F.jpeg
 
Monahorns said:
It's permanent. The only saving grace is if salaries/labor rates increase to the same degree. But I can say that mine haven't. Car insurance up 30% this year too.
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At least you have a job. At my company, all high paid employees (beneath business director level) are being heavily scrutinized for performance. Basically if are replaceable you are shown the door and replaced with a younger, lower paid employee.
 
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ViperHorn said:
Page A2 of today's WSJ - High Inflation Is Bad, Accepting It Is Worse.

Compare today's inflation to the same day in 2019 (the last before COVID) or even 2021. It is up substantially and that increase is permanent.
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Prices of goods will likely fall somewhat by the end of the year and then hold for a long time. Prices of services will inflate as long as labor wages keep increasing, but wages will likely return to equilibrium once the unemployment rate starts to rise.
 
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Horn2RunAgain said:
2%?
As stated, our home insurance premiums went up 40%. No offense intended, but in the nicest terms I can convey my disagreement on these reports of low inflation rates is "that's complete *********"
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80% of the 2-3% inflation today is comprised of rents and insurance. If your home insurance premium went up $1000 recently and you spend $50k annually, then it only adds 2% points to the inflation total. The other 1% or so is inflation in the other items. Note you only see the inflation in your insurance premium once per year. Most of the inflation could have happened 6 months ago but you didn’t know it.
 
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