INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

AC said:
This article is only talking about year over year change in M2 money supply. That sends an extremely misleading message about money supply growth.
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Huh? Did you read the article?

The money supply metric used here—the "true," or Rothbard-Salerno, money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2.
 
mchammer said:
Huh? Did you read the article?

The money supply metric used here—the "true," or Rothbard-Salerno, money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2.
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Interesting. My last comment came from reading the same article. But I read the original. You linked to zerohedge's that Durden links to at the beginning.

Yes. TMS is a better metric because it considers another form of bank notes or deposits that M2 doesn't.
 
Headline PCE now down to 4.2%. Apparently the only thing not going down fast is services, which is mostly labor cost. That is because wage growth is still high at 7%.
 
And I don’t see any service improvements- anywhere. In fact most public service related businesses are still short on employees.
 
HornHuskerDad said:
Hmmm...I don't see any letup in prices at the grocery store or the gas pump. And I have to continue eating and driving.
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Inflation going down - not prices. Why is this so hard to understand? Not suggesting prices are lower at the grocery store. The past is done with Powell’s inflation mistake in 2021.
 
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mchammer said:
Apparently the only thing not going down fast is services, which is mostly labor cost. That is because wage growth is still high at 7%.
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Sorry mc, maybe I stretched this a bit but I cannot completely accept this:

“Fed policy doesn’t affect the availability of labor.”
 
nashhorn said:
Sorry mc, maybe I stretched this a bit but I cannot completely accept this:

“Fed policy doesn’t affect the availability of labor.”
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Since everything is connected, you are technically correct but it probably consists of a number of 2nd order effects that is too complicated to know.
 
nashhorn said:
Sorry mc, maybe I stretched this a bit but I cannot completely accept this:

“Fed policy doesn’t affect the availability of labor.”
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Money supply inflation is a disruption which will affect the availability of labor. Increasing RM prices and labor rates will make those things more scarce.
 
mb227 said:
$2.98 for regular at the QT in Conroe yesterday...most everyone else is at $3.1x.

Makes me wonder if the did the futures purchase like Southwest did years ago...
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I'm 2 hrs from Conroe, when we go to the woodlands for the wife's shopping ventures we always gas up at that particular qt. Somehow they're 0.10$ cheaper than anywhere else
 
Run Pincher said:
And I have to pay for vehicle, home repairs. And the amount my insurance has gone up is ridiculous.
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Our home insurance premiums went up by 40% almost. No claims since 2018, no storm damage in the area since we moved here 12 months ago. Zero crime in the neighborhood. My credit score is over 800 as is my wife's. What gives?

For a retiree this is pretty extreme. Mchammer and anyone else can try that low inflation talk all they want, it's false data. Pure ********

BTW, others I play golf with in our neighboring County are experiencing the same insurance hikes.
 
Insurance companies are right behind banks on the government's hit list. Sounds like they are getting prepared.

As for gas prices, we have two alums who own over a thousand retail outlets between them. QT is owned by two families out of Tulsa. Conoco owns 50% of one of the largest truck stop chains in the country including one in Baytown that has more complaints than any other station in America - pump will charge you for 28 gallons on a 24 gallon tank. It is so bad that I would go inside to complain and the girls would just ask me, "what should it be" and then adjust the charge accordingly.

I don't think QT does advance purchases anymore than Murphy Brothers does for WalMart.

As far as Susser is concerned, he's so damn smart, and with something like 800 outlets, hedging his pricing would not surprise me.
 
Part of the issue is accounting rules that require mark-to-market on the commodity (gasoline). This requires the inventory to be valued at the price of the latest product delivery.

One can tell very quickly the level of hedging (if any) by the independent retailers (any retailer who is not owned by a producer/refiner) Generally the price of gasoline will follow the price of crude by a couple of days. If the retailer is forward buying the change will either be immediate or lagging the market by a few days depending on the term of the existing contract.
 
mchammer said:
Fed policy doesn’t affect the availability of labor.
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Fed Policy combined with Executive branch policies do. Raising rates shuts down credit markets and liquidity. While the Executive branch closed drilling leases, disincentivized hiring in the Oil and Gas Industry.
 
AC said:
Fed Policy combined with Executive branch policies do. Raising rates shuts down credit markets and liquidity. While the Executive branch closed drilling leases, disincentivized hiring in the Oil and Gas Industry.
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You are talking about hiring of labor (demand). I am talking labor availability (supply).
 
ViperHorn said:
Inflation invariably leads to a recession which leads to fewer jobs.
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You all have missed the plot. This was my original comment:

Tight labor supply is somewhat immune to fed policy. Get used to higher labor wages due to lack of labor.

In other words, labor supply is tight enough that labor rates won’t go down, even in a recession.
 
mchammer said:
You all have missed the plot. This was my original comment:

A tight labor supply is somewhat immune to fed policy. Get used to higher labor wages due to lack of labor.

In other words, labor supply is tight enough that labor rates won’t go down, even in a recession.
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We must have gone through different economics classes and life experiences.
 
ViperHorn said:
If there are no jobs the labor rate is meaningless.
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It’s not meaningless if you are paying for labor as a consumer of services. Note the thread topic is inflation, not the economy. Apparently this thread is being hijacked by folks who want to ***** about current prices (past inflation) or the economy. Inflation is really about future expectations. The same for share price of stocks. That is my interest and focus in this thread.
 
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