'I Feel Duped on Climate Change'

[Horn6721]

nash
Even Demx can't print enough money to make it happen in the foreseeable future

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

This should provide a good opportunity for point/counterpoint: have at it.


Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris

The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it. Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation! My neighbor bought a Tesla, and had the charging unit installed alongside his driveway. Besides the cost of the unit, his monthly electric bill has increased by 2/3!
The problems with electric vehicles (EVs), we showed that they were too expensive, too unreliable,
rely on materials mined in China and other unfriendly countries, and require more electricity than the nation can afford. In this second part, we address other factors that will make any sensible reader avoid EVs like the plague. EV Charging Insanity.

In order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?

CSC-Canada board member New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:

“If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”

The government of the United Kingdom is already starting to plan for power shortages caused by the charging of thousands of EVs. Starting in June 2022, the government will restrict the time of day you can charge your EV battery. To do this, they will employ smart meters that are programmed to automatically switch off EV charging in peak times to avoid potential blackouts.

In particular, the latest UK chargers will be pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8 am to 11 am (3-hours), and 4 pm to 10 pm (6-hours). Unbelievably, the UK technology decides when and if an EV can be charged, and even allows EV batteries to be drained into the UK grid if required. Imagine charging your car all night only to discover in the morning that your battery is flat since the state took the power back. Better keep your gas-powered car as a reliable and immediately available backup! While EV charging will be an attractive source of revenue generation for the government, American citizens will be up in arms.
Used Car Market
The average used EV will need a new battery before an owner can sell it, pricing them well above used internal combustion cars. The average age of an American car on the road is 12 years. A 12-year-old EV will be on its third battery. A Tesla battery typically costs $10,000 so there will not be many 12-year-old EVs on the road. Good luck trying to sell your used green fairy tale electric car!
There are 3 of these batteries in a Tesla, so it’s $30,000 cost to replace, not $10,000! In addition, apparently the manufacturer says these will last up to 5 years, but they haven’t been around long enough to verify that. However, Teslas have been around long enough to find out that these batteries lose about 10% of their strength and life every year.
Tuomas Katainen, an enterprising Finish Tesla owner, had an imaginative solution to the battery replacement problem—he blew up his car! New York City-based Insider magazine reported (December 27,2021): “The shop told him the faulty battery needed to be replaced, at a cost of about $22,000. In addition to the hefty fee, the work would need to be authorized by Tesla…Rather than shell out half the cost of a new Tesla to fix an old one, Katainen decided to do something different… The demolition experts from the YouTube channel Pommijätkät (Bomb Dudes) strapped 66 pounds of high explosives to the car and surrounded the area with slow-motion cameras…the 14 hotdog-shaped charges erupt into a blinding ball of fire, sending a massive shock wave rippling out from the car…The videos of the explosion have a combined 5 million views.”
We understand that the standard Tesla warranty does not cover “damage resulting from intentional actions,” like blowing the car up for a YouTube video.
EVs Per Block In Your Neighborhood
A home charging system for a Tesla requires a 75-amp service. The average house is equipped with 100-amp service. On most suburban streets the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a single Tesla. For half the homes on your block to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly overloaded.
Batteries
Although the modern lithium-ion battery is four times better than the old lead-acid battery, gasoline holds 80 times the energy density. The great lithium battery in your cell phone weighs less than an ounce while the Tesla battery weighs 1,000 pounds. And what do we get for this huge cost and weight? We get a car that is far less convenient and less useful than cars powered by internal combustion engines. Bryan Leyland explained why:
“When the Model T came out, it was a dramatic improvement on the horse and cart. The electric car is a step backward into the equivalence of an ordinary car with a tiny petrol tank that takes half an hour to fill. It offers nothing in the way of convenience or extra facilities.”
Our Conclusion
The electric automobile will always be around in a niche market likely never exceeding 10% of the cars on the road. All automobile manufacturers are investing in their output and all will be disappointed in their sales. Perhaps they know this and will manufacture just what they know they can sell. This is certainly not what President Biden or California Governor Newsom are planning for. However, for as long as the present government is in power, they will be pushing the electric car as another means to run our lives. We have a chance to tell them exactly what we think of their expensive and dangerous plans when we go to the polls in November of 2022.

Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute. He is an internationally renowned scientist, author, and speaker who has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions on environmental issues and consulted with nearly every agency of the national government and many foreign countries. After graduating from Princeton University at the age of 20 with a degree in Geological Engineering, he received the nation’s first Ph.D. in Groundwater Hydrology from the University of Arizona. He later became executive director of the National Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers.
Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition, and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He has 40 years of experience as a mechanical engineer/project manager, science and technology communications professional, technical trainer, and S&T advisor to a former Opposition Senior Environment Critic in Canada’s Parliament.
You do not need to have an advanced degree in mathematics to understand the term “Overload”! The average person, no matter where you live, can quickly identify the political feel-good sensation that is being attempted by those short sighted individuals who are promoting the EV revolution….
Vehicle manufacturers, Charging station builders, Transmission Line contractors, Battery producers….etc. “It’s Magic”….and you are saving the planet by creating less pollution as you get rid of your gas burning vehicle and take out a five year loan to pay for the shiny new $60,000 electric car. No more fill-ups at the service station and the global warming is solved. You can now sit back and imagine the new polar ice formations that are providing a safe environment for the Polar Bears, Seals, Penguins that we all adore. We have done our part saving humanity…..and you can see the smile on little Greta Thunberg’s face! BUT WAIT….why are we losing power at our house?
Well the short answer is….We failed to understand that our electrical grid reached max capacity and was overloaded when all of the EV’s were plugged in tonight at the same time. The next short answer is…..where do you think the energy came from to supply the grid in the first place? It sure was not from Wind or Solar….nor from any other alternate energy source we use which, when all combined, only provides 7% of today’s use demand. It was from the traditional combustible resource called Hydrocarbons!

Until we discover a non-hydrocarbon energy source that is efficient and safe, GET OVER IT….we are committed to Oil & Gas!
Although the big American car manufacturers (GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc.), and the overly expensive foreign brands (Mercedes, BMW, etc.) have all jumped on board the electric car bandwagon, three of the biggest global manufacturers of cars purchased by the average-income buyer (Toyota, Honda, Subaru, etc.) have taken the position that Hybrids are ok, but the world cannot support fully electric cars for the foreseeable future!

Like most articles this one is chock full of hyperbole and misrepresentations to lead to one conclusion.

1. Virtually all EV's have DC fast charging. There will be NO 8 hr stops to charge at filling stations
2. It makes the assumption that we are still primarily charging at filling stations. one of the primary benefits of an EV is that I can charge it at home overnight. Thus negating the need for 80-90% of filling stations stops.
3. The increase on the grid is a legit concern. It can be moderated by nighttime charging, but there will be an increase demand on the grid for sure.
a. the "max of 3 tesla's per neighborhood" is interesting. I'm dubious and I'm guessing that the author again assumed charging at peak times to hit the "overload" threshold. If you are charging at nighttime hours (10PM-7AM) then I'm doubtful 3 tesla's would overload the system.
4. Increased his bill by 2/3's tells me nothing. 2/3's of what. 2/3's of $100 = not a bad deal. 2/3's of $500 = more concerning.
5. dependency on China is problematic, but no more problematic than our dependency on the current oil bad boys (Iran, SA, Russua, Venezuela, etc)
6. other issues are legit but overstated
a. EV batteries last longer than what this author seems to assume. and they are still improving
b. Range is not equivalent to a "tiny petrol tank" on EV's. Most are above 250 miles. and there is even one from China that is reported to be 600 miles already.

 

[mchammer]

 

[nashhorn]

Thanks BOrg, I knew there would be a counter.
Your 6a is certainly true, especially on the improving part but that range is optimal conditions, not sure the stated 250 miles rings true as a guarantee. The summers in Houston as an example.
Oh, and ok no 8 hours but don’t try and say it’s 30 minutes or less for a full charge even half the times you get a charge. Just isn’t true.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

There are several factors at play but here is a decent rundown. How Long Does It Take to Charge an Electric Car? | U.S. News (usnews.com) There are still deficiencies in this tech but it is not as significant as that first article implied.

Level 1 - Easy at-home using existing home tech - = long slow but cheap
Level 2 - This is what most EV spots have now. Still slow (based on AC tech). this is what most EV owners put in their homes for overnight charge
Level 3 - DC (fast charging) 30-45. If I'm a "filling station" a DC charger is the only viable product. none of the others make remote sense.

If I'm a hotel, or restaurant or some other "extended stay" type entity, I'll probably have a Level 2 for customer convenience but I wouldn't consider myself a "filling station".

Here's a list of EV's by range. some still suck, but the median is about 250 miles. All-Electric Cars Listed By EPA Range From Lowest To Highest (insideevs.com)

so for a guy like me, who i think has pretty typical travel patterns (2017_nhts_summary_travel_trends.pdf (ornl.gov))

1. commute to/from work daily (80 mile roundtrip)
2. drives DFW to Austin about 10 times a year
3. drives to the coast about 3 times a year

so about 13 times out of an entire year, I'm going to have to rely on a "filling station" type of service. The rest I can just plug in overnight. So for a grand total of 6.5 hrs of wait time. (which it probably would have been 2.5 hrs even with ICE) I can have an EV. The whole "range anxiety" is really overblown for the typical driver.

**edit: I didn't even factor OUT, the wait time at the ICE pump from normal daily driving that I don't have to do now. So on net, i think EV's will cause me to actually spend less time at a "filling station" during the course of the year. A LOT LESS.

It's a very different issue if I'm a rural driver and I cover 150 miles a day on a regular basis. EV's are definitely not a good choice for them....for now.

And as I repeatedly argue....EV's are in their nascent phases. They have less than 2% of the market. The big auto makers only got on board in a significant way in the last 5 years. The evolution of this tech is just starting.

 

[mb227]

**edit: I didn't even factor OUT, the wait time at the ICE pump from normal daily driving that I don't have to do now. So on net, i think EV's will cause me to actually spend less time at a "filling station" during the course of the year. A LOT LESS

I don't have any wait times when I fill up...I couldn't even begin to tell you when the last time was that there was not an open pump. As such, even on an empty tank, I pull up and am filled in literally less than two minutes, counting my time walking to and from the nozzle...most pumps will run the 10GPM permitted by the federal nanny-state.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

I don't have any wait times when I fill up...I couldn't even begin to tell you when the last time was that there was not an open pump. As such, even on an empty tank, I pull up and am filled in literally less than two minutes, counting my time walking to and from the nozzle...most pumps will run the 10GPM permitted by the federal nanny-state.

ok. fair enough. it is a short wait time, but based on my driving habits I'm doing that 5 min process, at least 1.5 times per week with an ICE. 52 x 1.5 = 78 times . plus a few more for the long trips. let's call it 90 ICE filling station stops per year. times 5 min each = 7.5 hrs of total wait time per year with ICE.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

and obviously not every car will have this same trajectory. And past performance is not a guarantee of future improvements but I would point to the Tesla Model S. In 2012 it achieved only 139 mile range. The model S now achieves 345-370. In ten years it had an approximate 140% improvement in range. There are probably 10 times the number of engineers working these issues now as there were in 2010. If we only have half the tech advancement over the next decade we will see cars getting 600+ mile range. In 2016 their fast charger got you 50% in 20 min. now it gets that in 15 min. 25% improvement in 6 years.

 

[nashhorn]

What Tesla has done in that area of improvements is no doubt amazing but this is also true -

and obviously not every car will have this same trajectory

I have heard from too many EV friends that the claims are like EPA mileage claims, generally high and only achievable in optimum conditions. Nonetheless I don’t think we are fine with EVs I just don’t think they will be the savior the advocates profess. Mainly because wind and solar will not ever provide sufficient power to cover the need.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

What Tesla has done in that area of improvements is no doubt amazing but this is also true -



I have heard from too many EV friends that the claims are like EPA mileage claims, generally high and only achievable in optimum conditions. Nonetheless I don’t think we are fine with EVs I just don’t think they will be the savior the advocates profess. Mainly because wind and solar will not ever provide sufficient power to cover the need.

I don't disagree about wind/solar. I've long been an advocate for reigniting the small nuclear platforms.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Cry more libs!!!

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

**edit: I didn't even factor OUT, the wait time at the ICE pump from normal daily driving that I don't have to do now. So on net, i think EV's will cause me to actually spend less time at a "filling station" during the course of the year. A LOT LESS.

It's a very different issue if I'm a rural driver and I cover 150 miles a day on a regular basis. EV's are definitely not a good choice for them....for now.

And as I repeatedly argue....EV's are in their nascent phases. They have less than 2% of the market. The big auto makers only got on board in a significant way in the last 5 years. The evolution of this tech is just starting.

I'm leaving on my vacation next Friday and heading to Glacier National Park in northern Montana. Round trip and with all the sight seeing I'll cover roughly 4,200 miles in 10 days with at least 3 days of 750--850 mile drives.

I love road trips and I'm not worried about time at a gas station. When an electric vehicle becomes more cost effective and can handle that kind of driving I'll consider it. Meanwhile I'm being punished with higher gas prices because of an agenda.

 

[mb227]

I'm leaving on my vacation next Friday and heading to Glacier National Park in northern Montana. Round trip and with all the sight seeing I'll cover roughly 4,200 miles in 10 days with at least 3 days of 750--850 mile drives.

I love road trips and I'm not worried about time at a gas station. When an electric vehicle becomes more cost effective and can handle that kind of driving I'll consider it. Meanwhile I'm being punished with higher gas prices because of an agenda.

Sounds sort of like my winding route to and from Vegas last August...left out of Vegas up through the border between Utah and Arizona, meandering between both States on some winding roads and then then ultimately over to Page for the night. Came south and went over to the Navajo Nation Museum and back to my route...not a whole lot out there other than shoulders to the road.

And there was also the big sign at the edge of what used to be part of the old route 666 about no services and no patrols at night. Three hours or so of twisties that had 10MPH hairpins with no guard rails...dropping out in some mining community that also didn't exactly have a lot to offer in the way of gas or other vehicle options...

That one was about 3700 miles as I recall...I kept a log that had mileage and expenses.

 

[Monahorns]

I'm leaving on my vacation next Friday and heading to Glacier National Park in northern Montana.

That's funny. My pastor is up there now, starting driving on Monday. He was a bit intimidated by the distance.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

That's funny. My pastor is up there now, starting driving on Monday. He was a bit intimidated by the distance.

This will be the longest drive I've ever done. Most of the time I keep it around 2,500 miles. We're doing Cheyenne, Jackson/Grand Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier with other side adventures as we discover them driving through the mountains. That 28 hour drive back which will be split over 3 days is what worries me because I haven't really set a plan for it. I'm estimating about $1,100 in fuel alone. Thanks Brandon!

 

[nashhorn]

Safe travels. Sounds like a great trip to me.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

I'm leaving on my vacation next Friday and heading to Glacier National Park in northern Montana. Round trip and with all the sight seeing I'll cover roughly 4,200 miles in 10 days with at least 3 days of 750--850 mile drives.

I love road trips and I'm not worried about time at a gas station. When an electric vehicle becomes more cost effective and can handle that kind of driving I'll consider it. Meanwhile I'm being punished with higher gas prices because of an agenda.

Obviously an EV is not the right car for that trip. I would suggest that there are a couple of ways that plays out.

1. if you take this type of trip more than once per year and you like driving your own vehicle, then you should likely not buy an EV until they get 400+ miles per charge and there is a EV "filling station" frequently along that route.
2. For myself, I already rent a vehicle if/when i'm taking a long road trip so I would suggest that there will always be a few ICE vehicles in the rental fleet for these infrequent but high mileage trips. I have an EV for my primary/daily driver (which is 98% of what i need) and then i rent something when i need a specialized capability like driving across the country.

I'm certainly not saying that you should be forced to switch to an EV. I have repeatedly said as much. All I'm saying is that 98% of the driving we do is currently satisfied by the PERFORMANCE metrics of most current EVs. Much of resistance on Performance grounds is hyperbole. There are certainly cost hurdles to overcome and there is certainly a bit of EV-marketing hyperbole for some manufacturers regarding some elements of battery/range, recharge times, recharge cycles, etc.

I do think there is something to the CC logic, but my bigger reason is National Security. I think it is in our long term interest to need a lot less oil. We make way too many decisions based on "national interest" (meaning our need for oil). If we had an energy structure dominated by Nuclear and our transportation sector was mostly EV, we would be much more secure as a nation and much less prone to get our butts involved in conflicts around the world.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

I'm estimating about $1,100 in fuel alone. Thanks Brandon!

No wonder prices at HEB have gotten so high.

 

[mchammer]

 

[nashhorn]

They would have a field day in DC. But I noticed they also say hybrids and EVs are also contributors. Hmmmm

 

[Monahorns]

This will be the longest drive I've ever done. Most of the time I keep it around 2,500 miles. We're doing Cheyenne, Jackson/Grand Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier with other side adventures as we discover them driving through the mountains. That 28 hour drive back which will be split over 3 days is what worries me because I haven't really set a plan for it. I'm estimating about $1,100 in fuel alone. Thanks Brandon!

Close to exactly the same trip he is taking. Funny.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

Close to exactly the same trip he is taking. Funny.

Lol, this morning we decided our route back would be through little big horn to see the Custer monument, stay in Casper and catch an independence league game, stay in Amarillo and do a drive by of Palo Duro Canyon (drive by mainly due to time constraints) then back home. We're also considering catching a ball game in Laramie on our way up. We love seeing these old historic small ball parks, but we have to convince our daughter. Her ex boyfriend is playing this summer for that Laramie team and she doesn't want him to see her and think she came just to see him.

If he's doing that too we should probably be friends.

 

[mb227]

Lol, this morning we decided our route back would be through little big horn to see the Custer monument, stay in Casper and catch an independence league game, stay in Amarillo and do a drive by of Palo Duro Canyon (drive by mainly due to time constraints) then back home. We're also considering catching a ball game in Laramie on our way up. We love seeing these old historic small ball parks, but we have to convince our daughter. Her ex boyfriend is playing this summer for that Laramie team and she doesn't want him to see her and think she came just to see him.

If he's doing that too we should probably be friends.

If you are hitting up Amarillo, you may as well check out a Sod Poodles game...

Yes, that IS the name of their team...Sunday unis are/were tagged as the Soddies.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

If you are hitting up Amarillo, you may as well check out a Sod Poodles game...

Yes, that IS the name of their team...Sunday unis are/were tagged as the Soddies.

If we have time, we might!

 

[mb227]

For one of the first times ever, I saw a place with ethanol-free gas at a time when I needed some go-go juice in the vehicle. QuikTrip in Bastrop, by the way...

Posted price was $5.249 but was on the pump for a penny less, compared to $4.199 for regular unleaded and $4.699 for premium (which is what I usually put into the F-Type). I only put in eight gallons since 1) I hate paying that much and 2) it was only 90 octane, compared to 93 for premium.

Since the car has 78K miles, all but a few hundred put on by me, I have a pretty good idea of expectations between Houston and Austin and vice-versa. And my usual drive is around 80-85MPH since it is a posted 75MPH for a good chunk of the drive.

Running the A/C, in 100 degree temps according to the dash, and 80-85MPH much of the 158 miles drive, I saw an increase of close to 2MPG using lower octane ethanol-free over the 93 that usually goes in and is likely E10 or E15.

I haven't done all of the math to see if it works out with a cost differential, but it was enough to make me consider hitting up the QT in Conroe a few times. Supposedly, Buc-ee's out I10 has 92 octane, but that is too far out of the way.

Based on my sample size of eight gallons, seems like maybe the government ought to focus on keeping the grain for food and not fuel...drill baby drill, and keep the pure stuff in the tanks.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Wait now. Just hold on a minute. Are you suggesting we can EAT corn instead of putting it in our gas tanks? I'm going to need some links or something for proof of this outlandish statement.