How bad is this economy going to get?

[Monahorns]

I keep trying to hammer that message home. It applies to Blockchain, Bitcoin, Space Travel, Electric cars. I know we’re old guys, it’s about time the OLD GUYS RULE!

It isn't the same comparison AC. Block chain and Bitcoin have value because the US$ is losing value at an accelerating pace. Bitcoin is an option that provides reliable store of value. $s don't do that anymore.

Space X or private space companies could have a benefit because they will do things that NASA won't do and will do it cheaper and better.

EVs at this point are a novelty. The only technical benefits at this point are acceleration and handling. That doesn't help the normal driver today. If you can get Li+ battery chemistry really cheap then I could see an overall benefit but in the meantime make hybrids and get your magnitude of scale benefits there.

 

[Monahorns]

Technology advancements can go from incremental to exponential
Imagine 20 years ago the idea that we could carry little devices in our pockets with wireless access to the world's information, a high definition video camera, etc - many would say no way but it happens like that

Yes. Now "phones" do things that 50 different things used to do. Until you specify the true value of an EV over a conventional vehicle, you are throwing money into the wind.

Even with that I am not saying companies shouldn't develop EVs. My only point is that governments shouldn't outlaw ICEs to give EVs an unfair advantage. Investment in EVs and see if they can out complete today's cars and hybrids. At that point, let the best technology win.

My question is what do EVs do that ICE cars don't do?

 

[Mr. Deez]

I'm no expert on EVs, but so long as it takes dramatically longer to charge a battery than it takes to pump a tank of gas, I don't think people are going to buy them in massive numbers to be their everyday cars. I'm not sure why they don't come up with a battery exchange program at gas stations. That would make a big difference.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Holy Toledo! How did that happen? First, I remember him as a baby. Second, how could you let him work on anything but a Ford?

Well you will be glad to know he now works at a Ford dealer.

 

[Phil Elliott]

I'm not sure why they don't come up with a battery exchange program at gas stations. That would make a big difference.

Somebody I saw (maybe Porsche?) is working on this, but, just like the fast charging stations on every corner, the cost of the infrastructure is pretty steep.

But I say Monahorns has the correct take - yes, the limitations of EVs can be managed, but to what end and at what cost? Current new gas vehicles are already ~98% clean so all that money to support EVs is not going to get us much in the way of incremental gains. Like most things the Dems like to crow about, it's all just a big damn show.

Also, please keep in mind that most electric generation in this country is still done with coal, so EVs are really coal-powered cars.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Somebody I saw (maybe Porsche?) is working on this, but, just like the fast charging stations on every corner, the cost of the infrastructure is pretty steep.

I'm sure it's a huge deal. Gas station would have to be big enough to store them, and they might even have to hire people to do the actual swap. I don't know if it's easy enough for customers to do or not. However, until that's all worked out, the industry is going to be massively limited. I wouldn't buy one either way, because I'm not interested in wasting a lot of money just to virtue signal. They'd have to make them reasonably priced, but at this point, I wouldn't do it even if they were cheaper than gasoline-driven cars, because I'd never be ok with it taking hours to charge the battery.

 

[Run Pincher]

Biden wins the election all those EV negatives won't matter since EV's are the politically correct thing to do even if the true cost is double an ICE. They will be forced on us by regulation.

He will have to pry my motorcycle out of my hands though. Just the sound of that Kawasaki in line 4 screaming at 11k rpm is as intoxicating as the acceleration.

 

[Dionysus]

You can already travel in a car as far as you want and "recharge" in 5 minutes. If EVs do the same thing what is the benefit?

Tesla’s stated mission is to help transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy so their business is built on that perceived benefit.

forcing technology by law into the pigeonhole of 100% battery power

Where is the legal mandate for this? The market will decide.

 

[AC]

I worked Oil and Gas my whole career. Now I’m 52 and we have Covid-19 and riots for Antifa & BLM. WTI went negative, the Blockchain is about to take over the internet and go Digital. Bitcoin is making the US Dollar look ridiculous. To me Space Travel and EV are just a logical extension of where business and technology are going. All technological shortcomings will drastically improve with time. So I started a Bitcoin company because I am not qualified to work in the Space Travel or Blockchain Industries. But my real concern is too many over 50 men will get left behind. I want to keep up with technology. I am also concerned Oil and Gas Industry might not come back to its 2000-2008 levels. I used to think that Party would never end.

 

[dukesteer]

I worked Oil and Gas my whole career. Now I’m 52 and we have Covid-19 and riots for Antifa & BLM. WTI went negative, the Blockchain is about to take over the internet and go Digital. Bitcoin is making the US Dollar look ridiculous. To me Space Travel and EV are just a logical extension of where business and technology are going. All technological shortcomings will drastically improve with time. So I started a Bitcoin company because I am not qualified to work in the Space Travel or Blockchain Industries. But my real concern is too many over 50 men will get left behind. I want to keep up with technology. I am also concerned Oil and Gas Industry might not come back to its 2000-2008 levels. I used to think that Party would never end.

AC, I’m in Plastics (certainly associated with Oil & Gas). I believe that prices will continue to rebound as will the industry. Sadly, many in fracking have been devastated but I do expect a rebound, with perhaps new players. I’m certainly no expert on the subject but I can tell you that my experience in plastics is that just about the time the conventional wisdom says one thing, the new normal disappears. That’s beginning to happen again with polypropylene.

As for the EV discussion, I think that it’s a coming wave that cannot be stopped. The older guys like us will give way to the feel good, Millennial types, many of whom are green obsessed. Plus, it’s just cool to own an EV and if you can afford a Tesla — and there are many here in SoCal who can — the technology is leading edge. My 82 year old friend and near genius that obsesses about all things automotive has now owned three of them. He insists that nothing comes close.

 

[Monahorns]

Tesla’s stated mission is to help transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy so their business is built on that perceived benefit.

That is a horrible reason to spend money on EVs. Again, renewables give electricity, same thing as with fossil fuels, however the power is way more expensive and intermittent. You pay more for less.

I have heard many economists and business leaders lament that no big invention has taken place in 30-40 years. Productivity growth is low compared to history. Innovation is very slow. Why?

One reason is that we are wasting billions of dollars on stuff like this. We are spending money to develop things we already have and for which the invention is more expensive, less reliable.

The other problem is the banking system sending money to unprofitable business and government activities through deficit spending and stimulus packages. American economic dynamism is more or less in a coma. If you want to kill it, vote for politicians who push renewable energy, EVs, and even more deficit spending.

Make America Profitable Again. That would be my Presidential slogan.

 

[Monahorns]

Where is the legal mandate for this? The market will decide.

EU has been talking about this for a while. Democratic politicians talk about it a lot. Biden has said he will implement Green New Deal. Voila.

 

[Monahorns]

I am also concerned Oil and Gas Industry might not come back to its 2000-2008 levels.

AC, the oil and gas industry has proven that if politicians don't stand in the way, they are alive and well. O&G is suffering now because global demand is way low. But if evil politicians like Abbott would quit threatening to shut down business, demand would eventually go up and oil prices would rebound.

O&G has actually had the most significant innovation in the last 15 years. But then government gets in the way. Let the guys do their job and they will supply the world with energy and hydrocarbons for centuries.

Where we are really missing the boat on energy is nuclear. Energy will be less expensive as energy density of the fuel source goes up. Nuclear fuels are way more energy dense than hydrocarbons and hydrocarbons are orders of magnitude more dense than wind and solar. Wind and solar is a joke. Develop nuclear and let oil and gas compete to see how long they can hold out.

 

[Monahorns]

As for the EV discussion, I think that it’s a coming wave that cannot be stopped.

Duke, nothing is inevitable. There is a battle for truth that has to be continued. For those who truly want to be Green, they won't go with wind and solar. They are use orders of magnitude more land than fossil fuel sources and nuclear. There a way more constructive things that can be done. The problem is politics has gotten in the way of the science. Keep pushing the scientific truth and people will learn.

 

[Mr. Deez]

EU has been talking about this for a while. Democratic politicians talk about it a lot. Biden has said he will implement Green New Deal. Voila.

The EU has talked, but plenty of the national governments in the EU have actually passed bans on the ICE. They won't go into effect for another 10-30 years and usually don't affect cars that are currently on the road. However, the move is definitely coming in their laws. In 2040, you won't be able to buy a new ICE vehicle in many European countries.

What I suspect they will do is push public transportation even harder and dump a mess of government money into the battery charging infrastructure. Obviously this will greatly increase demand for electricity, which is already pretty expensive here, and with several countries getting rid of their nuclear plants and replacing them with wind and solar, costs will undoubtedly go up even more.

 

[AC]

I loved Oil and Gas and always will. But I see the writing on the wall. Trust me I make my living in Oil and Gas But I’m investing in my Bitcoin based business and sometime I think that will surpass my Oil and Gas income. Probably in 3 years or so. If I’m right great if I’m wrong I won’t go belly up but I won’t retire with near as much. I know it’s a gamble.

 

[dukesteer]

Duke, nothing is inevitable. There is a battle for truth that has to be continued. For those who truly want to be Green, they won't go with wind and solar. They are use orders of magnitude more land than fossil fuel sources and nuclear. There a way more constructive things that can be done. The problem is politics has gotten in the way of the science. Keep pushing the scientific truth and people will learn.

Monahorns, I want for you to be right but man, you are going against some very considerable PC headwinds.

Right now “The Science” only has utility if you are using it to bludgeon Trump. (Sorry Dion. Couldn’t help being a truther.)

 

[Monahorns]

Duke, you are right, but there are groups out there fighting that battle right now with great information. All it takes is for the oil and gas industry to get a little backbone and show the facts. There is Alex Epstein who wrote the Moral Case For Fossil Fuels. There is the CO2 Coalition. Michael Schellenberger. Patrick Moore. These guys are Republicans either. These are environmentalists and political leftists, moderates of course. The science is actually pretty clear for anyone who doesn't treat the subject like a religion.

 

[AC]

More class for those who will take the time. As I keep telling you, it’s worth the time if you care about your future.



Ask whatever questions you want. Bottom line:
Bitcoin
Gold
Silver
Real Estate (I’m going rural). Not commercial!
Fine Art
Cash Reserves to invest AFTER the crash!

I’m just trying to help you guys! Ive been studying Global Macro a long time. It will Trump Robinhood, Stoole President Dave Portnoy, etc. it’s just a matter of time.

 

[AC]

"Wait, Why Is The Fed Buying My Biggest Competitors' Bonds?"

Maybe this article from Zero Hedge is less cumbersome to read. That unfolding article is too long. Sorry.

 

[Musburger1]

"Wait, Why Is The Fed Buying My Biggest Competitors' Bonds?"

Maybe this article from Zero Hedge is less cumbersome to read. That unfolding article is too long. Sorry.

I read that article yesterday. It’s just more evidence that the US economic system has devolved into an oligopoly where the big players collude with the federal reserve with impunity outside of governmental or legal controls. And when government officials try to look into such matters, they tend to be bought off or marginalized (Ron Paul).

 

[AC]

Correct but I want to help everyone get on board with me and millions of others buying up Bitcoin and Gold, Silver. If anyone doesn't do that they miss out on the massive gains, but most importantly they will suffer massive massive losses for any currency based assets they have. Savings will drop with inflation, unemployment will stay high, buying power of the dollar will drop. So baby boomers with high retirement savings will lose the buying power of their retirement income or late in their career income, AND they lose alot of their savings. This board is 50% + Baby Boomers. So, they need Bitcoin and Gold.

Why banks, governments, and institutional investment houses are slow to come around to this much less go public with it? It competes with them. USD, Stocks, Fiat currency. So somebody has to break the ice! Just exit the monetary system as much as you can. For some people that's 20% for others it may be 80%+.

 

[AC]

Banks in US Can Now Offer Crypto Custody Services, Regulator Says - CoinDesk

 

[Musburger1]

If the currency devalues (and I think it will because the printing press isn't going to be restrained no matter who is in office), exchanging dollars for gold or Bitcoin now before it accelerates is potentially a smart move. But a dollar devaluation is just one of the dominoes that will fall.

1. State and local governments are beginning to look at new or increased taxes to compensate for declining revenue in lost sales taxes, hotel taxes, property taxes in some locales, and lost revenue from oil production. These entities will need to collect more taxes to support insolvent pension obligations and under funded budget demands such as public transportation, road repairs, education, etc.

2. Social unrest will continue to stay on the front burner as the election approaches and certainly when it ends. Combined with high unemployment and a media that thrives on division, some places won't be all that safe.

 

[AC]

Trump is financially smarter than your giving him credit for. He brought in Brian Brooks from Coin Desk to be OCC, Comptroller of the Currency. If there is mass and I mean mass adoption to Bitcoin. I think 50 Million people globally own it. That needs to be over a Billion! If and when that does happen. It will become the Global Reserve Currency. I know that is going to take a long time. Hyperinflation is going to take a long time as well. If we have social unrest due to the Cantillon effect. This whole process will speed up. Holding Fiat Currency is a HUGE RISK! I know I am out on a limb with that statement but I wont be in 2021! If the social unrest is bad enough and inflation ramps up which will breed more unrest. We are going to have no choice but to ditch Fiat Currency Globally. How many Wars have been started since 1865 over currency?

I believe in Peace and we wont have it as long as Fiat Currency is wreaking havoc worldwide!

 

[mchammer]

Elon also announced that its next Gigafactory will be in Texas. Looks like Austin won this round. It’s 5 minutes from the airport and it’s about 2,000 acres. “It will be stunning. It’s right by the Colorado River. It will have a boardwalk… It will be an ecological paradise. It will be open to the public as well,” Musk noted.

The Austin Gigafactory will produce the Cybertruck, the Model Y, and the Semi

Trump should attend the groundbreaking in Austin.

 

[Joe Fan]

All of American must suffer because New Yorkers elected incompetent leftist morons

 

[Joe Fan]

Translation: white employees are being fired to improve diversity ratios

 

[Monahorns]

That is sick.

 

[mchammer]

What I have observed at my company is that old white guys, who have the highest salaries on average, are let go at each re-org of the company. Instead of making room for them in an adviser or consultant position, for example, if there isn’t room for them in the org structure, they are gone (with severance of course). They don’t let them apply for other positions that may be open for which they are qualified and/or actually held 20 years earlier. No mercy. They leave with a lot of knowledge that is hard to replace. If left alone, they would have likely left in 3-5 years anyway on their own (maybe less).

Two of these folks that I know quickly found jobs in remoter parts of the country looking for tier 1 talent with lots of experience. Others did some consulting for a while. Others retired as they were more or less ready. The point is that a lot of experience is being forced out of the door unnecessarily just to make the numbers look good. From what I can tell, very few of the new folks coming in are tier 1 talent that can grow a business through innovation and new thinking.