How bad is this economy going to get?

Good Lord is that a real tweet. Didn’t like krugman anyway but that’s rather tactless. Guess there won’t be any backlash because, well we know why.
 
Krugman has called people who disagree with him on politics and economics, demons, in an interview. He was asked about the dangers of demonizing those we disagree with. He responded with something like, but they are demons.

Krugman is c*nt, and a horrible economist.
 
The NASDAQ has been outperforming
This chart is relative to the S&P

Eb8vv_fUEAAJDGE
 
Monahorns said:
Krugman has called people who disagree with him on politics and economics, demons, in an interview. He was asked about the dangers of demonizing those we disagree with. He responded with something like, but they are demons.

Krugman is c*nt, and a horrible economist.
Click to expand...

And he might be the most discredited economist in history. He is to economics what Jim Bakker is to clergy. He has about that much credibility.
 
Joe Fan said:
The NASDAQ has been outperforming
This chart is relative to the S&P

Eb8vv_fUEAAJDGE
Click to expand...

These debt cycles take a long time to play out. At some point we are long overdue for a trend reversal. The Cantillon effect is when a central bank prints so much money that their debts are monetised away, however it weakens the currency and therefore weakens the buying power of citizens not heavily invested in assets. The bottom half or more of Americans are losing more and more buying power as the DXY drops ( USD index). Debt defaults, bankruptcies, or perhaps a large enough drop in the DXY will kick off a major trend reversal. Maybe it takes a full year, IDK. I just know we cannot print our way out of this. This trend of lifting stocks through printing liquidity for the stock market will end badly. Maybe it’s planned maybe not. But I have researched this for a long time! We cannot keep up this sharade forever. By we I mean the Fed.

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AC said:
These debt cycles take a long time to play out. At some point we are long overdue for a trend reversal. The Cantillon effect is when a central bank prints so much money that their debts are monetised away, however it weakens the currency and therefore weakens the buying power of citizens not heavily invested in assets. The bottom half or more of Americans are losing more and more buying power as the DXY drops ( USD index). Debt defaults, bankruptcies, or perhaps a large enough drop in the DXY will kick off a major trend reversal. Maybe it takes a full year, IDK. I just know we cannot print our way out of this. This trend of lifting stocks through printing liquidity for the stock market will end badly. Maybe it’s planned maybe not. But I have researched this for a long time! We cannot keep up this sharade forever. By we I mean the Fed.

Bitcoin
Gold
Silver
Fine Art (masterworks)
Real Estate
Click to expand...
Since you have done the research, explain why stocks are not an inflationary hedge.
 
IDK, if inflation comes or not. It may or may not. Deflation is more likely the first affect. If deflation hits that would be the DXY (USD index) Dropping. That is most likely. If that was the result then eventually stock values would get pulled down. I think it will take a long time. Also watch the 2 yr and 5 yr fixed bond rates. If we ever go negative that will speed up the debt cycle and pull down stock values. We’re near 0 on both right now. I listed uncorrelated assets that would inflate during a debt cycle.

Paul Tudor Jones, Chamath Polihapatia, Mike Novogratz, Mark Yusko, Tim Draper, Mark Cuban, and Jamie Dimon are all Billionaire investors or Hedge Fund Mgrs making these moves. Some public some not as much. Dimon and Cuban were against these moves but recently revealed they are doing this. Cuban is most resistant but he now says everyone should put 10% into Bitcoin or at least Gold. JP Morgan and Fidelity are investing huge money into Bitcoin. Greyscale owns 3% of the Bitcoin market so far.

This all would hurt most/all stocks at first but after the bottom, then you have cheap entry points to get back in. I don’t know when that would happen, it should be pretty obvious when it starts.
 
The Cantillon effect is when a central bank prints so much money that their debts are monetised away, however it weakens the currency and therefore weakens the buying power of citizens not heavily invested in assets.
Click to expand...

AC, the Cantillon effect is exactly that some people benefit from the money printing and others are impoverished by it. You are half right. The people who receive the new money first get to spend it at the original value. The devaluing doesn't happen until the new money distributes itself throughout the economy.
 
Since you have done the research, explain why stocks are not an inflationary hedge.
Click to expand...

iatrogenic, they are in a sense. The problem is that return rates go lower with all the new money. However, much of the "new" money goes into stocks which does prop up the value and acts as a kind of hedge, at least until a market crash occurs.
 
I disagreed with your post until
“At least until a market crash occurs”. I have been predicting that or a slow malaise down. Obviously the second is optimal. I am a contrarian investor, not for everyone, but in these times we are in. My information may help some of you.....I hope.

We all need to hedge. We have choices but everyone needs to do it. That’s my bottom line.
 
Monahorns said:
AC, the Cantillon effect is exactly that some people benefit from the money printing and others are impoverished by it. You are half right. The people who receive the new money first get to spend it at the original value. The devaluing doesn't happen until the new money distributes itself throughout the economy.[/QUOTE

That’s right. I was concerned about the loss of buying power not stock buy backs etc. The stock market is held up by the Fed. I think most everybody here agrees on that. My old boss is 61 and we met and had lunch. Now he’s hedging some. I just don’t want anyone to get rekt, especially if retirement is coming up.
Click to expand...
 
AC, the problem is that all the politicians and the Fed Chairs all act like they are the ones coming in to save the economy. No one knows any better, so most go along with it.

The problem is the Fed's and DOT monetary policy. Remember that. They are causing the problem. The solution is to get rid of them and let interest rates float.
 
I agree Monahorns. I subscribe to Global Macro newsletters, podcasts, etc. I used to be a Gold bug, now I’m a Bitcoiner. I started a Bitcoin ATM business in June. So the Fed has Too Much Power. Millions of people will be destroyed Financially by all this at Some point.

79% of all Global Currency is USD! Not sustainable! Nasdaq, S&P, DJI will crash 40% minimum. I hope it’s a slow malaise down but the charts point to a bubble and flash crash. I study this stuff. I now own no stock! 0!
This is getting dangerous!
 
I don't know if this is confirmed but if so it will probably pump the markets more, at least through the election

 
Sorry Driver 8 but Raoul Pal says.....not so fast my freind!

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This one shows us the rate of rent default upcoming. Hotels, Industrial, and Retail off the charts. Overall default rate is 11% so far.
 


households and companies Debt make up MZM to GDP. Now the ratio is 109%. How is that sustainable?
 
It's called zombie companies. Japan and EU do this all the time. It artificially keeps failing businesses from dieing their natural death.

Again the Fed will act as this is a good thing and a champion for the good of all people, but it leads to economic stagnation. We are literally dumping money into something people don't really want. But the banksters, the CEOs, and polticians all want it. Because they all are scratching each others' backs.

I would protest over this kind of stuff. Even light a few cars on fire if I thought it would help. Big If.
 
Yea don't do that Monahorns. We're white collar over here, and conservatives don't need to stoop to those levels. Now if war breaks out, that's different, but I don't want to think about that. I am trying to stick to financial and football. Two things I know something about. Oh and live Rock Concerts!:headbang:
 
AC, I too love rock concerts, football, and free markets. But they no longer exist right now. Many don't think football will be back this fall.
 
Still can’t tell if inflation or deflation is the future. It’s one way or the other, IDK.

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