How bad is this economy going to get?

[bystander]

Trump was asked about Harvard and others getting money while there is no money for small businesses.
He said it would be investigated and money would be taken back from those who shouldn't have gotten it

I hope he follow's through. These institutions who can afford financial advisers who are up to date and ready to pounce are amorally hurting small the very small businesses that need this money. Yet Harvard is a basin of socialist thought. I have a few words for them but I'll leave it at this:

HYPOCRITES

 

[Monahorns]

Glad Trump is President. Hillary would be shoveling money into her foundation and all her friends'.

 

[Joe Fan]

single digits
FWIW, the May contract ends tomorrow (i think) and no one wants to get stuck right now having to take physical delivery, with the current backup (there is no place to store it)
The June contract is roughly back where things where, $22ish last I looked

A story if interested
Oil futures contract expiring Tuesday dives 50%, touches 34-year low

The May contract settled at $9.06 in final trade.

 

[LongestHorn]

Dear Government: We need a real ******* plan.

 

[LongestHorn]

 

[Garmel]

Patrick is making some good points. Thanks, LH for sharing.

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

1000 out of 30 MM? Let's get everybody except LongestHorn back to work.

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

1000 out of 30 MM? Let's get everybody except LongestHorn back to work.

It is weird how they want all citizens locked down in their homes but, at the same time, insist on Open Borders. Consistency has never exactly been a hallmark of the left.

 

[Horn6721]

Trump just announced Harvard will pay back loan. I hope Texas will too
Trump also said he will be requesting those big companies who got loans to pay them back.

 

[LongestHorn]

Louisiana pastor who flouted social distancing urges Americans to donate stimulus checks to his church

 

[Joe Fan]

"Kimberly-Clark Corp said on Wednesday sales of tissue and toilet paper rose 13% in the first quarter ... helping the company beat Wall Street estimates for profit and sales." ​

 

[nashhorn]

Amy Siskind “there are more important things than living”.
Huh?

 

[Musburger1]

Significant food inflation down the road?
Food-Shortage Fears Well-Founded? Tyson Closes Nation's Largest Pork Plant Over COVID Concerns

This would be caused by supply disruptions in the food chain resulting from the virus. Later on, we could see additional inflation in other areas resulting from money printing in order to prevent deflationary collapse. Decisions, decisions.

 

[Horn6721]

nash
It was Dan Patrick who said that

 

[Joe Fan]

nash
It was Dan Patrick who said that

He may have been slightly inarticulate but I would argue that the bigger question is still valid. At what point are you willing to say destroying the US is not worth it over this virus?

Let us assume the US is a $21 Trillion economy
Are you willing to let reaction to the virus shave off $5 Trillion of all of our combined wealth?
What about $10 Trillion?
$20 Trillion?
All of it?
Are you willing to return to a Great Depression economic footing to save an extra 1% of the US population? If not, then what %?

I get it that no one wants to have this discussion because it is distasteful and makes folks uncomfortable. But analytical types have already been having it. We know what Patrick's position is, but instead of having that discussion that he was trying to put on the table, liberals could not wait to attempt to ridicule him for short term political points, as they do on a daily basis with whatever Trump says. Short term political wanking is all they care about. And the substantive issue is thus avoided. As is always the case with them.

 

[bystander]

Amy Siskind “there are more important things than living”.
Huh?

I think what this man is trying to say is that the % of deaths is not worth the total destruction of our way of life. It is an awful thing to say. It is also a statistical reality in terms of percentages. It is also an obvious truth of proportionality when we confront our mortality.

We will all die anyway. Someday. And for reasons other than this virus.

People thought 3,000 deaths on 9/11 was nowhere near the proportion of our response; two wars, trillions of dollars spent, the hit our economy took etc.

If the real solution is to allow young people to contract the disease (like I got the chicken pox long ago) and build an immunity then we have to accept that some people may die.

But that is obviously unacceptable politically because the moral implication of building in a tolerance for death in order to save the union is not something that can be defended on national tv. It will be exploited.

Yet we do accept the inevitability of death for our soldiers along with the collateral damage of innocents when we choose war as the solution to a problem.

What's the difference?

I suppose the answer is that the front lines are here and not "over there" and there is an absence of the anesthesia of patriotism when it comes to our soldiers sacrificing their lives for us.

 

[AC]

Dan Patrick also tried to humanize himself and mention his Grandchildren and future generations. That resonates with real people. It resonates with me and I’m not a grandparent yet. Trump will use Biden as a mop in November. It will be a landslide!

 

[Joe Fan]

Seems a long way off to me

Video from FoxBusiness here Mnuchin: Anticipate 'most, if not all of the economy' will be open by late summer

 

[Musburger1]

Seems a long way off to me

Video from FoxBusiness here Mnuchin: Anticipate 'most, if not all of the economy' will be open by late summer

His guess is about us good as hour’s or mine. Even if all 50 states give the go ahead, nobody knows how people and systems are going to respond.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

Significant food inflation down the road?
Food-Shortage Fears Well-Founded? Tyson Closes Nation's Largest Pork Plant Over COVID Concerns

This would be caused by supply disruptions in the food chain resulting from the virus. Later on, we could see additional inflation in other areas resulting from money printing in order to prevent deflationary collapse. Decisions, decisions.

There will be no permanent food shortage. Any shortage due to closure of production plants, transportation issues, etc will rebound. How long that rebound will take is currently unknown, but there will be food inflation. I'll use rice as an example. It could quadruple in price in the near future because a lot of rice is imported but that doesn't mean corn related products will increase because we pretty much grow all of that ourselves.

 

[AC]

There will be no permanent food shortage. Any shortage due to closure of production plants, transportation issues, etc will rebound. How long that rebound will take is currently unknown, but there will be food inflation. I'll use rice as an example. It could quadruple in price in the near future because a lot of rice is imported but that doesn't mean corn related products will increase because we pretty much grow all of that ourselves.

Your in the grocery business in some fashion, I’ll take your word for it!

 

[Musburger1]

There will be no permanent food shortage. Any shortage due to closure of production plants, transportation issues, etc will rebound. How long that rebound will take is currently unknown, but there will be food inflation. I'll use rice as an example. It could quadruple in price in the near future because a lot of rice is imported but that doesn't mean corn related products will increase because we pretty much grow all of that ourselves.

The potential problem lies beyond the processing plants and distribution. Prior to these steps in the chain, you begin with farmers and ranchers. Many of them depend on continuity to keep their operations going. If they can't take their poultry, pork, or cattle to market, they don't have room (not enough barns, pens, etc.) to keep and feed the animals while simultaneously breeding the next generation of animals. So many chickens and pigs are simply left to die or terminated; just like pouring milk on to the ground. And if the problem persists, some of these people go out of business. If that happens, you have a supply problem at the source (the farm) resulting from the present problem at the second stage (the factory).

 

[Mr. Deez]

He may have been slightly inarticulate but I would argue that the bigger question is still valid. At what point are you willing to say destroying the US is not worth it over this virus?

Let us assume the US is a $21 Trillion economy
Are you willing to let reaction to the virus shave off $5 Trillion of all of our combined wealth?
What about $10 Trillion?
$20 Trillion?
All of it?
Are you willing to return to a Great Depression economic footing to save an extra 1% of the US population? If not, then what %?

I get it that no one wants to have this discussion because it is distasteful and makes folks uncomfortable. But analytical types have already been having it. We know what Patrick's position is, but instead of having that discussion that he was trying to put on the table, liberals could not wait to attempt to ridicule him for short term political points, as they do on a daily basis with whatever Trump says. Short term political wanking is all they care about. And the substantive issue is thus avoided. As is always the case with them.

And we make decisions about this sort of thing every single day. There's nothing novel about this.

 

[Mr. Deez]

"Kimberly-Clark Corp said on Wednesday sales of tissue and toilet paper rose 13% in the first quarter ... helping the company beat Wall Street estimates for profit and sales." ​

13 percent? That's it???

 

[Musburger1]

13 percent? That's it???

The panic buying only started about halfway through March I think. So just two weeks or so out of about thirteen weeks would have accounted for the 13% increase. I'm guessing April would have big TP sales the first couple weeks, and the rest of the 2nd quarter TP sales would be more in line with the norm.

 

[Monahorns]

Seems a long way off to me

Video from FoxBusiness here Mnuchin: Anticipate 'most, if not all of the economy' will be open by late summer

Way too slow. Need to get people back to work. Austin new cases already going down hill. Curve isn't flat as much as it is shrinking.

 

[Horn6721]

I wonder if actual supply had anything to do with the 13%?
I agree. April will be higher. Silly people are still hoarding.

 

[mb227]

I think that oil future dropped only because nobody will take delivery on it. Storage is full up. There is a big swing back up for the second month of the future.

Discussion early this AM on one of the financial programs was that tanker stocks were on the upswing. Daily rates on tankers has gone up from roughly $25K in February to almost $250K now. Given their capacities, one could rent a tanker for a few months, fill it to capacity at the May futures price and STILL make more than a few million bucks...