How bad is this economy going to get?
- Thread starter AustinHorn24
- Start date
Here are two friends of a friend of mine statements on Facebook. It's rather long but a good read.
Wife:
"So here’s the thing- I have cancer. At least, my doctor believes I have cancer, but we can’t know for sure until the lump is removed from my breast and we get the test results back. That can’t happen for as long as this lockdown continues because the governor has decided that, in spite of what I or my doctor thinks, I don’t need that surgery right now. I’m not alone in my situation. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people who are blocked from access to the care that we need. Please PLEASE STOP behaving as if the only reason people want this to end is so that we can hang out with our friends and go get our hair done. Most of us are worried about our health, our jobs, and our families who depend on us being able to do what we need to do every day. No one is forcing anyone to break your self quarantine. We just want freedom to do what we need to do before our lives are destroyed."
Her Husband:
" Yeah, this is why I've been so damned angry every time some smug ******* shares a meme about how people just want to go back to work for filthy money and don't care about killing grandma. **** that tired class warfare ********.
No. I just want my wife to get the surgery she needs before something that should be treatable kills her, but she's not allowed to, governor's orders, even though our hospital sits mostly empty and the surgeon would love to do it. Because you know, all those diseases that normally kill people suddenly stopped because you're worried about this new one.
And I know we're not alone. I've not said much about this for weeks now, but Bridget decided to talk about it today. So screw it. Yeah. Let's get this ******** over with.
And spare me your ******* ******** internet epidemiology degree granted to you by the University of Click Bait. You don't know ****. We all know you don't know ****. Shut the **** up. We don't live in a hot spot. We don't live in New York City. What do her doctors know? The governor has spoken.
Then people quote the ******* odds, and the mortality rate of the disease (and they always always reach for the stars on that! Scarier the better!) Only even if this is the weakest kind of cancer, the odds that ******* around and not removing it will kill her, are worse than even your worst case numbers on the virus. But oh, Party Of Science! IF IT SAVES ONE LIFE (**** all the others)!
I'm sick and ******* tired of listening to healthy ********, who have savings, or who work from home, lording it over people who've lost their jobs, businesses, who are trying to figure out how to feed their kids. Yeah. Stay the **** home, awesome, but shut the **** up while you're doing it. We are too, but everybody else is tired of your ignorant virtue signal.
Spare me your discussion. I don't care about your stupid *** opinion. Any smug ******* who says stupid ****, I'll ******* nuke. I've got no patience for your sanctimonious tripe today."
Wife:
"So here’s the thing- I have cancer. At least, my doctor believes I have cancer, but we can’t know for sure until the lump is removed from my breast and we get the test results back. That can’t happen for as long as this lockdown continues because the governor has decided that, in spite of what I or my doctor thinks, I don’t need that surgery right now. I’m not alone in my situation. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people who are blocked from access to the care that we need. Please PLEASE STOP behaving as if the only reason people want this to end is so that we can hang out with our friends and go get our hair done. Most of us are worried about our health, our jobs, and our families who depend on us being able to do what we need to do every day. No one is forcing anyone to break your self quarantine. We just want freedom to do what we need to do before our lives are destroyed."
Her Husband:
" Yeah, this is why I've been so damned angry every time some smug ******* shares a meme about how people just want to go back to work for filthy money and don't care about killing grandma. **** that tired class warfare ********.
No. I just want my wife to get the surgery she needs before something that should be treatable kills her, but she's not allowed to, governor's orders, even though our hospital sits mostly empty and the surgeon would love to do it. Because you know, all those diseases that normally kill people suddenly stopped because you're worried about this new one.
And I know we're not alone. I've not said much about this for weeks now, but Bridget decided to talk about it today. So screw it. Yeah. Let's get this ******** over with.
And spare me your ******* ******** internet epidemiology degree granted to you by the University of Click Bait. You don't know ****. We all know you don't know ****. Shut the **** up. We don't live in a hot spot. We don't live in New York City. What do her doctors know? The governor has spoken.
Then people quote the ******* odds, and the mortality rate of the disease (and they always always reach for the stars on that! Scarier the better!) Only even if this is the weakest kind of cancer, the odds that ******* around and not removing it will kill her, are worse than even your worst case numbers on the virus. But oh, Party Of Science! IF IT SAVES ONE LIFE (**** all the others)!
I'm sick and ******* tired of listening to healthy ********, who have savings, or who work from home, lording it over people who've lost their jobs, businesses, who are trying to figure out how to feed their kids. Yeah. Stay the **** home, awesome, but shut the **** up while you're doing it. We are too, but everybody else is tired of your ignorant virtue signal.
Spare me your discussion. I don't care about your stupid *** opinion. Any smug ******* who says stupid ****, I'll ******* nuke. I've got no patience for your sanctimonious tripe today."
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Regarding the small business loans; they (the banks) did get the money out, but it didn't go as intended.
Small Business Owners Sue Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Over Virus Loan Debacle
Small Business Owners Sue Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Over Virus Loan Debacle
Several large banks have been sued by small businesses who say large business loans for coronavirus relief were prioritized over small firms, who were then unable to access the much-needed funds.
Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase US Bankcorp were named in the lawsuit accusing them of processing applications for the largest loan amounts due to the massive fees they would generate, vs. processing them on a first-come-first-served basis as the Trump administration said would happen, according to Bloomberg.
The lawsuits, filed Sunday in Los Angeles federal court, claims that thousands of small businesses trying to apply for the Paycheck Protection Program administered by the Small Business Administration were left with nothing.
JPMorgan said in a FAQ on their website that small businesses received over 2x as many loans as the rest of its clients combined, while other banks had no comment, according to the report.
The PPP, which ran out of money last week, offered loans of up to $10 million which are guaranteed by SBA and accessed through lenders. If a company is able to keep workers on the payroll and cover rent and other approved expenses, the loans turn into a grant.
On Monday, burger chain Shake Shack announced that they would be returning $10 million they received under the PPP following outrage over large businesses and hedge funds accessing the program intended to save small businesses during the coronavirus pandemic.
Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase US Bankcorp were named in the lawsuit accusing them of processing applications for the largest loan amounts due to the massive fees they would generate, vs. processing them on a first-come-first-served basis as the Trump administration said would happen, according to Bloomberg.
Banks earned origination fees of 5% on loans up to $350,000; 3% on loans between $350,000 and $2 million; and 1% on loans between $2 million and $10 million. That means they earned $17,500 for processing a $350,000 loan, compared to $100,000 for a $10 million loan. -Bloomberg
The lawsuits, filed Sunday in Los Angeles federal court, claims that thousands of small businesses trying to apply for the Paycheck Protection Program administered by the Small Business Administration were left with nothing.
JPMorgan said in a FAQ on their website that small businesses received over 2x as many loans as the rest of its clients combined, while other banks had no comment, according to the report.
The complaints are based on two reports released by the SBA about the loans. One had data from April 3 when the program launched through April 13, when about three-quarters of the program’s funding had been claimed. The other report showed data as of April 16, after the funding was exhausted and the SBA stopped taking applications.
The complaint says in the last three days before the money ran out, loan applications for $150,000 and less were processed at twice the rate of larger loans compared with the initial report, suggesting the largest loans were front-loaded. But SBA hasn’t released data showing loan activity by lender, or how many loans and what loan amounts were processed on each day. -Bloomberg
The complaint says in the last three days before the money ran out, loan applications for $150,000 and less were processed at twice the rate of larger loans compared with the initial report, suggesting the largest loans were front-loaded. But SBA hasn’t released data showing loan activity by lender, or how many loans and what loan amounts were processed on each day. -Bloomberg
The PPP, which ran out of money last week, offered loans of up to $10 million which are guaranteed by SBA and accessed through lenders. If a company is able to keep workers on the payroll and cover rent and other approved expenses, the loans turn into a grant.
On Monday, burger chain Shake Shack announced that they would be returning $10 million they received under the PPP following outrage over large businesses and hedge funds accessing the program intended to save small businesses during the coronavirus pandemic.
BevoJoe
10,000+ Posts
Checking the oil prices today - US Crude closed at -37.630, net change of -55.900 and a percentage change of -305.97.
For Stocks it's a mixed market, but mostly down. Gold is still open and at 1,700+
Links:
Dow drops more than 500 points to start the week after historic oil plunge
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/20/stocks-markets-today-oil-coronavirus/
So the down economy has the potential to last a while, or maybe longer. But, that doesn't mean it won't shoot up again with gains tomorrow.
For Stocks it's a mixed market, but mostly down. Gold is still open and at 1,700+
Links:
Dow drops more than 500 points to start the week after historic oil plunge
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/20/stocks-markets-today-oil-coronavirus/
So the down economy has the potential to last a while, or maybe longer. But, that doesn't mean it won't shoot up again with gains tomorrow.
I think that oil future dropped only because nobody will take delivery on it. Storage is full up. There is a big swing back up for the second month of the future.
Don't believe that case is "ripe" yet. The program isn't even over.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
I have heard multiple viralogists say the opposite actually. They say you can avoid exposure for a time but ultimately the virus will go through the full population. It will have its way. The most important thing is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, which they aren't, reducing the viral load you are exposed to, and boosting your immune system anyway possible.
LongestHorn
2,500+ Posts
Please link. Would love to read that rationale.
I remember that question coming up in Integrated Finance. What happens if you don't liquidate the position before expiration? I guess you own a bunch of pork bellies. Never thought it would actually happen though. Strange times.
BevoJoe
10,000+ Posts
Japan hit with second wave of coronavirus cases.
Links:
Lessons from Hokkaido's return to virus lockdown
After initial success, Japan and Singapore struggle with the second wave of coronavirus infections
Links:
Lessons from Hokkaido's return to virus lockdown
After initial success, Japan and Singapore struggle with the second wave of coronavirus infections
We need young people to become infected so that blood serum will be available for folks who are high risk.Please link. Would love to read that rationale.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
That’s right. The next $300 billion or so will be coming... and that’s probably just the warmup.
The banks are going to make a killing administering all this.
Last edited:
BevoJoe
10,000+ Posts
They will. Some are taking the checks and relieving overdraft accounts. However, JP Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo have changed that policy abd stopped that practice.
Link:
Wells Fargo, Citi, JPMorgan won't apply stimulus checks to negative balances
Let me pose a scenario based on the economic principles of incentives and constraints. The CDC is paid for with taxes. Their only product, or money making activity, is fear. They are incentivized to produce as much fear as possible in the general public and among the legislators.
The CDC has absolutely no incentive to limit the amount of risk reduction they seek under the current COVid situation because they don't have to pay the price for that risk reduction. There is no restraint on how much fear they generate, nor on how much credit they will seek for for whatever level of risk mitigation may occur, regardless of the facts that will present themselves.
Compare the CDC's incentives and constraints with an individual or a company. An individual pays the price for an unlimited amount of risk reduction under the coronavirus lock down. They lose income and the ability to pay for food, clothing, and housing. A business cannot make loan payments, or pay its trade creditors if it is forced to close, and could be forever banished from the business world. The individuals and companies actually have to weigh one risk versus another because they have serious consequences if the wrong choice is made.
The CDC has absolutely no incentive to limit the amount of risk reduction they seek under the current COVid situation because they don't have to pay the price for that risk reduction. There is no restraint on how much fear they generate, nor on how much credit they will seek for for whatever level of risk mitigation may occur, regardless of the facts that will present themselves.
Compare the CDC's incentives and constraints with an individual or a company. An individual pays the price for an unlimited amount of risk reduction under the coronavirus lock down. They lose income and the ability to pay for food, clothing, and housing. A business cannot make loan payments, or pay its trade creditors if it is forced to close, and could be forever banished from the business world. The individuals and companies actually have to weigh one risk versus another because they have serious consequences if the wrong choice is made.
BevoJoe
10,000+ Posts
Garmel; what state do your friends live in? Maybe arrangements can be made to have a doctor in another state do the biopsy. Might be difficult but worth a shot.
They're not my friends. They're friends of a friend so I don't know what state they're living in.
BevoJoe
10,000+ Posts
Seems like the doctor is breaking his Hippocratic Oath by following what the Governor has ordered, as in "turn sick folks away if it's not the virus."
Yep, in this case they are literally paying you to take it. Probably a bunch of ships floating around looking for a place to dump their load. The open tap from the Saudi's and Russia along with the major reduction in demand has created this short-term situation.
It is interesting to think of futures that aren't liquidated... musical chairs and someone has to do something with it.
AC
2,500+ Posts
Why is Longest Horn laughing at this? That’s not funny.
Austin_Bill
2,500+ Posts
Overall average loan size is $239,152. Only 9% of borrowers received more than $5million.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Most important quote from the article,
Three Reasons Why Politicians Must Leave Oil Markets Alone | Troy Vincent
Three Reasons Why Politicians Must Leave Oil Markets Alone | Troy Vincent
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
The oil market will come back. The issue is demand. As demand increases, price will as well, and things will rebound healthily.
A lower demand means that wind and solar energy prices would come way down too. Costs wouldn't, so they are even more uneconomical that oil right now.
Based on market dynamics if oil is crashing, wind/solar is deep in a black hole.
A lower demand means that wind and solar energy prices would come way down too. Costs wouldn't, so they are even more uneconomical that oil right now.
Based on market dynamics if oil is crashing, wind/solar is deep in a black hole.
So AOC's conclusion is we should jump in the hole...
No matter what happens, it's a reason to be an extremist. How easy that must be.
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