General Presidential Campaign: Trump vs Hillary

[Brad Austin]

IMHO, the Dems just blew their wad too soon with Bernie not holding out until the convention to endorse HC. Was poor timing with HC still fresh off the heels of skating email charges.

Polls just came out where 53% said Hillary deserved to be charged while 37% said no. Guess the rest didn't answer. Around 20+% of Dems said she deserved charges.

With that fresh on the minds of Bernie supporters and Independents, his endorsement had to be bittersweet to his followers and register less than moving. The endorsement bump will be mild at best with this timing.

He shoulda held off on that until the convention and then gave a big spotlight speech on endorsing HC and bashing Trump. Now when he does so at the convention it will be expected and old news.

 

[4th_floor]

I'm voting for Gary Johnson, but I think Trump will win if he continues to push a "law and order" theme. It worked for Nixon in '68. Nixon had high negatives too. But when society appears to be collapsing, people will support a candidate who promises order.

 

[yelladawgdem]

Re all the dumping on Romney: He almost won. A few states were the hinges.

Uhhh....yea. And he would have if those 5,000,000 Americans hadn't voted for the other guy.

 

[mchammer]

Uhhh....yea. And he would have if those 5,000,000 Americans hadn't voted for the other guy.

You understand the electoral college? It wasn't 5 million voters separating Romney and Obama in FL, OH, VA, and NH. About 325k votes were the difference. By popular vote, it was 3.5 million votes.

 

[mchammer]

Trump now up in FL and PA, tied in OH according to last poll.

 

[mchammer]

Up in all 3 states when considering 4-way.

 

[Joe Fan]

This is pretty funny

CNN producer unceremoniously cuts off some CNN reporter when she begins to point out a few flaws in HRC's game.

 

[Joe Fan]

Where is CNN?
(re: above post)

 

[mchammer]

Trump Clinton tied in latest NYT/CBS national poll.

http://nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html

 

[Joe Fan]

Trump Clinton tied in latest NYT/CBS national poll....

Here is Rasmussen latest
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

"Thursday, July 14, 2016

Just days before the Republican National Convention is expected to formally nominate him to run for president, Donald Trump has taken his largest lead yet over Hillary Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 44% support to Clinton’s 37%. Thirteen percent (13%) favor some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

This is the third week in a row that Trump has held the lead, although last week he was ahead by a statistically insignificant 42% to 40%. This week’s findings represent Trump’s highest level of support in surveys since last October and show Clinton continuing to lose ground...."

 

[Joe Fan]

That Rasmussen link ^ also has a video on poll results of what Americans think of Congress

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/what_america_thinks

 

[mchammer]

I'm fairness, it should be noted that the polls are all over the place. My take is that some people are lying to the pollsters (larger than in the past). Also, some polls have less undecideds than others. If forced to answer, the undecideds probably say Clinton when in reality however they will mostly go Trump's way on Election Day.

 

[Joe Fan]

Also from that Rasmussen --

 

[texas_ex2000]

As everyone here knows, I cannot vote for Hillary as she has, in my eyes, completely disqualified herself. Not only can I not vote for her, I will not vote in a manner that will benefit her chances of winning.

And while I believe the media, mainstrram and social, has vilified him beyond reality and his positions aren't exactly as extreme as people perceive - e.g. 1) Cruz is much more radical on illegal immigration than Trump (the "Wall" is his euphanism for saying enforce the law), 2) he's very open to the gay community, 3) he's not a slash taxes candidate, 4) he's actually desegregated (not talk about it or tweet about it) a local industry when blacks and jews were banned from country clubs in Florida...these are all things that should appeal to voters in the middle - the idea of Donald Trump as President makes my stomach churn.

His policies, while populist and protectionist in some areas, don't concern me. His delivery, while pompus and impulsive and "un-Presidential," is overly (dis)valued by people. His character, such as his statements on certain women, is pretty low class...but not something we've never heard other men/colleauges/friends/family in a military wardroom, business lunch, at the ballgame, on the golf course make. And the best sign of a man's character are his kids...and his, despite every opportunity to turn into a dumpster fire of a Paris Hilton or Kardashian, turned out very well.

What makes my stomach turn was what he said about and doubled down on John McCain not being a war hero. That, to me, was a true window into what this guy thinks. I hope this was him simply playing a reality TV character saying something controversial to get in the news. As dumb as that is, that's the sort of world we live in today and he's just swimming in that cespool to get to the other side. But, I actually think he reasoned that in his head and believed it to be a logical criticism.

The idea of him, with that attitude, awarding military members with decorations is disgusting to me.

Our leaders are a reflection of what we deserve. That's where we are as a country.

 

[Horn6721]

One benefit for all the positive turn in the polls for Trump is it will make it "acceptable" for some people who had not spoken in support of Trump before, This could also make it easier for pols down the ballot to call on Trump for support.
People flock to winners. Right now he is seen in a much more positive light. BLM may be giving him a huge boost.

 

[UTChE96]

Latest CBS/NY Times poll shows them tied.

 

[Phil Elliott]

His shot at McCain I did not have that big of a problem with b/c McCain is such a douche now. He served his country honorably and, for that, he deserves our thanks, but it does not excuse, in my eyes at least, the way he treats other Rs now.

 

[Seattle Husker]

His shot at McCain I did not have that big of a problem with b/c McCain is such a douche now. He served his country honorably and, for that, he deserves our thanks, but it does not excuse, in my eyes at least, the way he treats other Rs now.

Trump didn't attack the current McCain, he attacked his prisoner of war status offending every other prisoner of war in the process.

 

[mchammer]

Trump didn't attack the current McCain, he attacked his prisoner of war status offending every other prisoner of war in the process.

Counterattack. I believe McCain called him a buffoon first. Trump then went after McCain by questioning his "hero" status. Yes, I believe the Hanoi Hilton prisoners were heroes.

 

[NJlonghorn]

Counterattack. I believe McCain called him a buffoon first.

Awesome. We are going to have a president who lacks the maturity to resist retaliating when he is insulted.

As a consolation, the next 4 years should be as interesting as a primary-school playground.

 

[Horn6721]

I am sure there are some POWs who were not pleased with Trump's characterization but there are also other POWs who do not have kind things to say about McCain either.
I wish Trump had not attacked McCain on that subject.

 

[nashhorn]

ex 2000 you summed up my conclusions rather well. I have been disgusted by McCains stances of late but did not like Trumps attack. I do think many of his 'counter' attacks are too much on the personal side, but I sure do like the Pocahontas label.

 

[I35]

At the last mid term elections, most polls that had it close was a blowout by the GOP Representatives. Almost every poll that showed the Democrats by a large margin was actually very close. So whatever the polls show you can bet that it at least +6 to 8 to the GOP. Only certain polls are trustworthy and only those give us some kind of idea.

 

[I35]

Yeah, it's like choosing between spam or bargain bologna when your grandmother in law offers lunch

Please don't ever compare anybody on an even scale with HRC. She's the most corrupt person in history and in a class by herself. She make's Nixon look like a Saint.

 

[Horns11]

At the last mid term elections, most polls that had it close was a blowout by the GOP Representatives. Almost every poll that showed the Democrats by a large margin was actually very close. So whatever the polls show you can bet that it at least +6 to 8 to the GOP. Only certain polls are trustworthy and only those give us some kind of idea.

The average predictors for the House were pretty much spot-on. They predicted a +14 swing for the GOP and it ended up being +13. It's the Senate where the polling data got murky and there ended up being an average +5 percentage points above the polling data for the "contested" seats for the GOP. This is mostly because it evened out due to some Democrats finishing better than what the polling data was showing in GOP-strong seats. So you're right that you could bet on "some" of the GOP seats finishing 6-8 percent higher, but only because other Republican candidates were supposed to do better than their 2-3 percent win over their opponents.

Keep in mind, midterms are more likely to have rabid swings in the days/hours leading to an election. Same thing happened for the GOP in 2010 and the Democrats in 2006.

This link explains it better than me: Princeton study

It goes on to say that Presidential elections are less prone to mood swings. Using Quinnipiac in swing states is a good measure of that specific mood swing, but it's not a good measure of who's winning the state. WaPo proved that their phone/mall polling is typically 3-8 percent "whiter" than the voting public, and they even showed how they taper their percentage towards the Democrat candidate as it gets closer to election day (so as to seem in lock-step with the other polling companies and less like a rogue Fox News shill). Sad, but true.

I don't see the minority electorate staying home on 11/8 because of everything that has been happening these past couple weeks.

 

[Horns11]

She make's Nixon look like a Saint.

Wow, heavy-handed. I'd say that she was on the same level as Nixon if Hillary Clinton approached the Taliban, told them not to back off of their war against Western imperialism because she could broker a better deal once she was President, and then 20K more Americans died between her election and eventual resignation.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Please don't ever compare anybody on an even scale with HRC. She's the most corrupt person in history and in a class by herself. She make's Nixon look like a Saint.

Somebody is stuck inside their echo chamber and can't get out.

 

[mchammer]

Awesome. We are going to have a president who lacks the maturity to resist retaliating when he is insulted.

As a consolation, the next 4 years should be as interesting as a primary-school playground.

Again, to be fair to Trump, he was running a campaign. Any candidate would respond harshly if attacked like Trump. Sounds like you have a touch of Trump derangement symdrom cause you ain't thinking clearly. I bet Trump will be a lot more generous with the opposing party when in office than Obama.

 

[mchammer]

Awesome. We are going to have a president who lacks the maturity to resist retaliating when he is insulted.

As a consolation, the next 4 years should be as interesting as a primary-school playground.

Please. Have you not watched Obama the last 8 years?

 

[I35]

Horn11 and SH,

I'm sure all 35 years of her corruption wasn't her "Intent."