Coronavirus

The more I read about the undercounting of cases, the more I suspect that I caught this virus back in December. We flew from Luxembourg to London Heathrow and back within a week. We got home, and we got pretty bad flu-like symptoms. However, they were different. The body aches actually weren't quite as bad, but the cough was dryer and much worse as was the fatigue. Furthermore, the whole house had the nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. I've never had that with the flu. Another reason I suspect Coronavirus - about a month later, I got the flu (actually tested positive for it). How likely would that be if I had already had the flu just a month earlier?

I don't think I got it in Luxembourg. It's a pretty clean airport that isn't very crowded. I think I got it at London Heathrow. That place is basically the bar scene from Star Wars - has an assload of flights from all over the world every day. All it would have taken is one person from China coughing a little too closely.
 
We only believe science when it fits a narrative.
While that is probably true, in the case of C-19, common sense should prevail.

>How many people are asymptomatic? The expects say that 50-80% either show no symptoms, or have mild symptoms.

>How many people wouldn’t report the illness unless they thought they were in serious trouble? Many.

Just my opinion but I would go with the 50-80x figure. We are only capturing a tiny fraction of the cases, and that is a good thing.

When we look back, I suspect that the numbers will reflect a mortality rate well below 1%, and perhaps in the 0.05% range, or less. That’s still too high, and terrible, but it’s not anywhere near as bad as we feared.
 
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While that is probably true, in the case of C-19, common sense should prevail.

>How many people are asymptomatic? The expects say that 50-80% either show no symptoms, or have mild symptoms.

How many people wouldn’t report the illness unless they thought they were in serious trouble? Many.

Just my opinion but I would go with the 50-80x figure. We are only capturing a tiny fraction of the cases, and that is a good thing.

When we look back, I suspect that the numbers will reflect a mortality rate well below 1%, and perhaps in the 0.05% range, or less. That’s still too high, and terrible, but it’s not anywhere near as bad as we feared.
We can’t know the mortality rate until we know the percentage of non-symptomatic or mildly symptomatic people that currently don’t show up in statistics. If we just look at the outcomes of those who have tested positive, and exclude the unknown number of infected people that never experienced significant symptoms, the numbers are frightening. 21% of those have resulted in death (160,000 deaths; 595,00 recovered). But if there are, say ten times as many undetected people who had zero or minimal symptoms, then the death rate is only 2.1%, and the majority of those were in poor health to begin with.

On the other hand if the number of non detected people with insignificant symptoms represents only about half of the infected population, then the death rate would be a scary 10%.

I’m guessing there are many more undiagnosed non-symptomatic cases than there are documented cases, probably closer to ten times as many rather than 50-50, but until there is enough reliable testing done on random populations it’s too early to conclude anything about the true mortality rate.
 
February 13, 2018: The Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment warns of major pandemic risks.

In written testimony before Congress on the presentation of the Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment, the Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats writes:

The increase in frequency and diversity of reported disease outbreaks—such as dengue and Zika—probably will continue through 2018, including the potential for a severe global health emergency that could lead to major economic and societal disruptions, strain governmental and international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support. A novel strain of a virulent microbe that is easily transmissible between humans continues to be a major threat, with pathogens such as H5N1 and H7N9 influenza and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus having pandemic potential if they were to acquire efficient human-to-human transmissibility.

April 9, 2018: John Bolton starts his first day as National Security Adviser.

John Bolton replaces H.R. McMaster as President Trump’s National Security Adviser.

April 10, 2018: Bolton fires Homeland Security Advisor, Tom Bossert.

Early in the morning, Bolton informs Tom Bossertthat he is fired. As White House Homeland Security Advisor Bossert “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” reports the Washington Post.

May 7, 2018: White House proposes cutting global health budget.

The White House sends a plan to Congress proposing budget cuts. It includes cutting out $252 million for health security preparedness in funds remaining from the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic.

May 7, 2018: The National Security Council’s director of medical and biodefense preparedness warns that pandemic flu is the top health security concern and that the country is not prepared for it.

Luciana Borio, NSC director of medical and biodefense preparedness, states, “The threat of pandemic flu is the number one health security concern. Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.” Borio’s statement is part of her remarks at a symposium at Emory University to mark the 100th anniversary of the 1918 influenza pandemic.

May 8, 2018: The National Security Council removes the top official responsible for pandemic response and disbands the global health security team.

President Trump’s National Security Advisor, John Bolton, removes Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council and disbands Ziemer’s unit, the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense. Previously, Ziemer was the sole senior official focused on pandemic preparedness. He is not replaced.

May 15, 2018: Two members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee writeto John Bolton, President Trump’s National Security Advisor, to express their concern over the recent actions “taken to downgrade the importance of global health security.”

Congressmen Gerald Connolly (D-VA) and Dr. Ami Bera (D-CA) write to John Bolton,Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and head of the National Security Council, “to express the deep concerns with several recent actions the White House has taken to downgrade the importance of global health security.”

“We fear these recent decisions will leave the United States vulnerable to pandemics and commit us to a strategy of triage should one occur,” state the congressmen, citing Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer’s departure from the NSC, the elimination of Ziemer’s global health team at the NSC, and the president’s proposed funding cuts to Ebola pandemic-preparedness programs. They urge Bolton to reconsider the demotion of the “global health security portfolio and reject the proposal to rescind Ebola contingency funds.”

May 18, 2018: Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio sends the president a lettersaying the decision to cut funding for global health programs and disband the global health team at the National Security Council could cost American lives.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, a moderate Democrat from Ohio, writes to President Trump expressing his concern over Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer’s departure from the NSC, the elimination of Ziemer’s global health team at the NSC, and the president’s proposed funding cuts for pandemic-preparedness programs. Sen. Brown urges the president:

“In our globalized world, where diseases are never more than a plane ride away, we must do all we can to prepare for the next, inevitable outbreak and keep Americans safe from disease. I urge you to act swiftly in reaffirming your commitment to global health security by taking immediate action to designate senior level NSC personnel to focus on global health security, supporting adequate and appropriate funding for global health security initiatives, and leading the way in preparing for the next pandemic threat.”
It’s very easy to criticize. Anyone can do it. Now please, walk me through what you believe Obama or, for that matter, what Biden would have done differently.

Please take a good look at history, like Obama’s reaction to the H1N1 virus, or Biden’s coziness with China. (Or was the Hunter Biden windfall just an odd coincidence?)

Perhaps we should talk about funding. We send tons of money to the WHO, 10x what China pays. Yet the WHO was complicit in validating China’s lies, lies that are the reason for the global pandemic, and the cause of hundreds of thousands of deaths. (Or do you want to dispute that?)

If you’re going to insinuate that Trump blew it, build a case for why Obama or Biden would have done a better job. And good luck. After all, when Trump closed China in late January, the usual suspects — and Biden — called him xenophobic and racist. What a shocker.

Like I said, build a case for someone else, anyone — AOC, Biden, Cuomo, Hillary, Obama - and I’ll read it.

But if you cannot do so, perhaps you will concede the obvious, that in the face of the greatest challenge we have faced in a century, Trump and his brilliant team — in spite of all of his idiosyncrasies, ill-advised tweets, and narcissistic comments — has lead us through hell, and done a damn good job of it.
 
We can’t know the mortality rate until we know the percentage of non-symptomatic or mildly symptomatic people that currently don’t show up in statistics. If we just look at the outcomes of those who have tested positive, and exclude the unknown number of infected people that never experienced significant symptoms, the numbers are frightening. 21% of those have resulted in death (160,000 deaths; 595,00 recovered). But if there are, say ten times as many undetected people who had zero or minimal symptoms, then the death rate is only 2.1%, and the majority of those were in poor health to begin with.

On the other hand if the number of non detected people with insignificant symptoms represents only about half of the infected population, then the death rate would be a scary 10%.

I’m guessing there are many more undiagnosed non-symptomatic cases than there are documented cases, probably closer to ten times as many rather than 50-50, but until there is enough reliable testing done on random populations it’s too early to conclude anything about the true mortality rate.
Mus, while your point is well taken, the Stanford study is pretty darn convincing to me. It just makes sense.

As the antibody testing becomes more widespread, I believe that the contentions stated will be validated.

Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
 
Mus, while your point is well taken, the Stanford study is pretty darn convincing to me. It just makes sense.

As the antibody testing becomes more widespread, I believe that the contentions stated will be validated.

Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
Hope so. Just an antidote, my mother who was 85 at the time and now 86 contracted pneumonia the last week in December. No fever or aches, but she felt very weak and tired and had an awful sounding cough. She went to the doctor and was diagnosed with pneumonia. She went back for a follow-up and was told it had spread to both lungs. She lives by herself about five minutes from me. I was afraid I’d have to take her to the emergency room. Fortunately after maybe a week she was ok. The coughing stopped and her lungs functioned normally. Most likely she just had pneumonia. As far as I know Covid wasn’t a thing here in December, but when antibody tests are available I want her to get one just to make sure.
 
I took a closer look at the Stanford sample.
Stanford study: More than 48K Santa Clara County residents have likely been infected by coronavirus


That said, the early findings indicate that between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1, back when the official count was 956. The estimate is based on 3,330 blood samples that were taken from volunteers in Mountain View, Los Gatos and San Jose on April 3 and April 4 and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 .

When adjusted for Santa Clara County's population and demographics, the number of positive results suggests that between 2.49% and 4.16% of the county's 1.93 million residents have had COVID-19.
It doesn’t say how many people actually had the antibodies but based on the percentage range it must have been about 100 out of the 3300 samples. That is very encouraging because it 1) extrapolates to a low mortality rate and 2) means hurd immunity might be reached in a much shorter time than expected. If 3-4% of the Santa Clara community are now immune, then perhaps it’s realistic to think a highly hit area like New York May have 10% or more of the population with antibodies by now.
 
Read an article that a Boston suburb was testing people randomly for Corona antibodies, and 33% had Corona antibodies. When we open up the economy, there is a smaller chance that there is another large outbreak. Probably a little bump up, but after a month of that we are at 50-60% immune and close to herd immunity.
 
February 13, 2018: The Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment warns of major pandemic risks.

In written testimony before Congress on the presentation of the Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment, the Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats writes:

The increase in frequency and diversity of reported disease outbreaks—such as dengue and Zika—probably will continue through 2018, including the potential for a severe global health emergency that could lead to major economic and societal disruptions, strain governmental and international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support. A novel strain of a virulent microbe that is easily transmissible between humans continues to be a major threat, with pathogens such as H5N1 and H7N9 influenza and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus having pandemic potential if they were to acquire efficient human-to-human transmissibility.

April 9, 2018: John Bolton starts his first day as National Security Adviser.

John Bolton replaces H.R. McMaster as President Trump’s National Security Adviser.

April 10, 2018: Bolton fires Homeland Security Advisor, Tom Bossert.

Early in the morning, Bolton informs Tom Bossertthat he is fired. As White House Homeland Security Advisor Bossert “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” reports the Washington Post.

May 7, 2018: White House proposes cutting global health budget.

The White House sends a plan to Congress proposing budget cuts. It includes cutting out $252 million for health security preparedness in funds remaining from the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic.

May 7, 2018: The National Security Council’s director of medical and biodefense preparedness warns that pandemic flu is the top health security concern and that the country is not prepared for it.

Luciana Borio, NSC director of medical and biodefense preparedness, states, “The threat of pandemic flu is the number one health security concern. Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.” Borio’s statement is part of her remarks at a symposium at Emory University to mark the 100th anniversary of the 1918 influenza pandemic.

May 8, 2018: The National Security Council removes the top official responsible for pandemic response and disbands the global health security team.

President Trump’s National Security Advisor, John Bolton, removes Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council and disbands Ziemer’s unit, the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense. Previously, Ziemer was the sole senior official focused on pandemic preparedness. He is not replaced.

May 15, 2018: Two members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee writeto John Bolton, President Trump’s National Security Advisor, to express their concern over the recent actions “taken to downgrade the importance of global health security.”

Congressmen Gerald Connolly (D-VA) and Dr. Ami Bera (D-CA) write to John Bolton,Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and head of the National Security Council, “to express the deep concerns with several recent actions the White House has taken to downgrade the importance of global health security.”

“We fear these recent decisions will leave the United States vulnerable to pandemics and commit us to a strategy of triage should one occur,” state the congressmen, citing Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer’s departure from the NSC, the elimination of Ziemer’s global health team at the NSC, and the president’s proposed funding cuts to Ebola pandemic-preparedness programs. They urge Bolton to reconsider the demotion of the “global health security portfolio and reject the proposal to rescind Ebola contingency funds.”

May 18, 2018: Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio sends the president a lettersaying the decision to cut funding for global health programs and disband the global health team at the National Security Council could cost American lives.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, a moderate Democrat from Ohio, writes to President Trump expressing his concern over Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer’s departure from the NSC, the elimination of Ziemer’s global health team at the NSC, and the president’s proposed funding cuts for pandemic-preparedness programs. Sen. Brown urges the president:

“In our globalized world, where diseases are never more than a plane ride away, we must do all we can to prepare for the next, inevitable outbreak and keep Americans safe from disease. I urge you to act swiftly in reaffirming your commitment to global health security by taking immediate action to designate senior level NSC personnel to focus on global health security, supporting adequate and appropriate funding for global health security initiatives, and leading the way in preparing for the next pandemic threat.”

OMG

You are right, Trump should have saw this coming, after all even Bill Gates has been saying a Pandemic is coming that is why he has several state of the art bunkers in place. We should all have bunkers so we can hide like scared rabbits when this came.
 
Read an article that a Boston suburb was testing people randomly for Corona antibodies, and 33% had Corona antibodies. When we open up the economy, there is a smaller chance that there is another large outbreak. Probably a little bump up, but after a month of that we are at 50-60% immune and close to herd immunity.
CDC reviewing ‘stunning’ universal testing results from Boston homeless shelter
Even more amazing, 146 people in a Boston homeless shelter tested positive and none of them had any symptoms.
 
Mr D. Can you get tested for antibodies?

Honestly, I'm not sure. The real possibility that I may have caught it just occurred to me yesterday. I've heard that there are some problems with the antibodies tests here but that they're getting worked out. We'll see.

The military travel restrictions just got extended to June 30, which means our move to the UK (scheduled for June 7) is delayed, but exceptions exist. If testing for the antibodies would put us into an exception, we'll do it.
 
As far as I know Covid wasn’t a thing here in December, but when antibody tests are available I want her to get one just to make sure.

I'd be shocked if it wasn't a thing in December. With thousands of infected people from China flying all over the world everyday, how could it not have been a thing? It was a thing. We just didn't know it yet, and doctors were probably just assuming that we were getting the flu, pneumonia, or a really nasty cold.

Like I mentioned earlier, I highly suspect that I got it in December. I also remember hearing about a lot of people who had flu shots (including Deez, Jr.) supposedly getting the flu. Could it all be coincidences? Sure, but I doubt it.
 


EV-oObKWsAAzFit.jpg
 
Did this Gov.call Pence or anyone to see about getting what he needs? Pence has made it clear he or someone is available to help.
Seems this Gov just wanted to grandstand as Md is not one of the states talking about trying to slowly open up soon
 
According to Dr Brix many states have capability for testing they do not know how to use it. She and her staff have spent time on phone explaining how. Some states were shipped testing products but do not know where the shipment is.
Remember the CDC royally screwed the first roll out if tests.
Remember Cuomo whining got 40,000 ventilators? He didn't need anywhere near that and Cuomo said No One who needed one did not get one and Cuomo is sending excess out.

But Haters blame Trump
 
According to Dr Brix many states have capability for testing they do not know how to use it. She and her staff have spent time on phone explaining how. Some states were shipped testing products but do not know where the shipment is.
Remember the CDC royally screwed the first roll out if tests.
Remember Cuomo whining got 40,000 ventilators? He didn't need anywhere near that and Cuomo said No One who needed one did not get one and Cuomo is sending excess out.

But Haters blame Trump
who is responsible for the CDC?
 

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