Coronavirus

Joe Fan said:
Should we be handing out Nobel Prizes to the doctors who have cured heart disease and strokes over the last 3 months?

They have basically reduced those deaths to near zero. It's remarkable
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Do you have data supporting this? I haven't found anything specific to heart-disease and stroke deaths in recent weeks, but what I have been able to find is inconsistent with your assertion:
  1. Hospital admissions for heart attacks and strokes have fallen, but are still occurring at 60+% of their usual clip. Link It is not clear whether the decrease is because there are fewer actual cases, or because fewer people are seeking treatment.
  2. This chart of weekly all-cause mortality suggests that coronavirus is supplementing US death totals, as opposed to replacing deaths from other causes.
Interestingly, the all-cause mortality tables allow you to filter the data in various ways. Most notably, if you choose the second tab along the top ("WithAndWithoutCovid"), you will see that non-COVID deaths are actually UP during the pandemic. Does this mean COVID-related deaths are being under-reported? That's hard to say, but it certainly seems like a possibility.
 
NJlonghorn said:
Do you have data supporting this? I haven't found anything specific to heart-disease and stroke deaths in recent weeks, but what I have been able to find is inconsistent with your assertion:
  1. Hospital admissions for heart attacks and strokes have fallen, but are still occurring at 60+% of their usual clip. Link It is not clear whether the decrease is because there are fewer actual cases, or because fewer people are seeking treatment.
  2. This chart of weekly all-cause mortality suggests that coronavirus is supplementing US death totals, as opposed to replacing deaths from other causes.
Interestingly, the all-cause mortality tables allow you to filter the data in various ways. Most notably, if you choose the second tab along the top ("WithAndWithoutCovid"), you will see that non-COVID deaths are actually UP during the pandemic. Does this mean COVID-related deaths are being under-reported? That's hard to say, but it certainly seems like a possibility.
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I posted a well researched article a dozen or so pages ago saying that worldwide deaths related to COVID are likely underestimated by 60% if you compare death rates over the last 5 years.
 
mchammer said:
And using elevators in the building when they go pick up food in the entrance.
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The Worldometers.org website recently added county-by-county data for certain states, including New York and New Jersey. This makes it much easier to compare areas.

It is certainly true that New York City [which includes five counties -- New York (Manhattan), Kings (Brooklyn), Queens (Queens), Bronx (the Bronx), and Richmond (Staten Island)] is uniquely positioned to see rapid spread of a virus. The mortality rate there is already over 0.25% and it looks like it will end up at or near 0.4%. I don't think we will see rates that high anywhere else in the nation.

Interestingly, the mortality rate is not as high in Manhattan as it is in Queens and the Bronx, where there are fewer elevators and more walk-ups. I guess your point stands if you say "stairwell" instead of "elevator", so I'm not sure what to make of this, except to caution against lumping all of New York City into one bucket. And that applies doubly to Staten Island, where the mortality rate is "only" 0.15%.

Regardless, the City's uniqueness doesn't explain why the virus has been spreading so quickly in Westchester County, Long Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut. The first three of these areas have hit a 0.1% mortality rate, and Connecticut will get there soon.

Not surprisingly, the mortality rate in the first ring of counties surrounding NYC accounts for a large part of this -- Bergen, Essex, Hudson, and Union Counties in New Jersey are all over 0.15%. What is more troubling is that the mortality rate is over 0.1% in the second ring (Middlesex, Somerset, Morris, and Passaic). Because these areas more closely resemble typical suburbs around other US cities, they provide a possible glimpse at how things could develop if precautions aren't taken early enough or maintained long enough.

Please note that all of the data I've used is a mortality rate, not an IFR or even a CFR. A a 0.1% mortality rate means 0.1% of the overall population dies.
 
That isn't true. It isn't cherry picked from the things I have read. They may be inaccurate but it isn't because of cherry picking.

In terms of preliminary, data is being added each day, I don't see that past numbers will be revised. More time will give us a better understanding, but the data is compiling quickly.
 
These shy is falling soothsayers are funny. Why do they only look at 1 variable? With the country in lock down what about all the things that don't happen. Those include kids not getting vaccinations, women not getting pap smears, chemotherapies not done, animals not vaccinated, etc. and possibly some who starve. And when people do starve it's the poor and low income; you know, the ones democrats claim they want to help.

Ousted Vaccine Chief Will Warn of 'Darkest Winter'
 
Run Pincher said:
These shy is falling soothsayers are funny. Why do they only look at 1 variable? With the country in lock down what about all the things that don't happen. Those include kids not getting vaccinations, women not getting pap smears, chemotherapies not done, animals not vaccinated, etc. and possibly some who starve. And when people do starve it's the poor and low income; you know, the ones democrats claim they want to help.

Ousted Vaccine Chief Will Warn of 'Darkest Winter'
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There is no consequence to being wrong in America.
 
Run Pincher said:
These shy is falling soothsayers are funny. Why do they only look at 1 variable? With the country in lock down what about all the things that don't happen. Those include kids not getting vaccinations, women not getting pap smears, chemotherapies not done, animals not vaccinated, etc. and possibly some who starve. And when people do starve it's the poor and low income; you know, the ones democrats claim they want to help.

Ousted Vaccine Chief Will Warn of 'Darkest Winter'
Click to expand...
At my place we're still assuring kids get vaccinations, chemo is still going on, women are getting paps. There are some negative consequences certainly but primary care is taking place.
 
Pretty surprising how we are doing here. The population is 3,200,000, and we have large pockets of older folks.

upload_2020-5-13_18-34-31.png
 
Monahorns said:
That isn't true. It isn't cherry picked from the things I have read. They may be inaccurate but it isn't because of cherry picking.

In terms of preliminary, data is being added each day, I don't see that past numbers will be revised. More time will give us a better understanding, but the data is compiling quickly.
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I'm still confused as to what data you're using. In order for this to have an IFR of 0.2 percent, you'd need serological or antibody studies that imply a 13% carrier rate for the entire population. The highest I've seen with smaller samples was closer to 5 percent. The MLB study done with able-bodied athletes with racial makeups similar to the population of the US ran a 0.9 percent antibody rate, and that was probably the biggest sample yet.

The other side of underreported cases is also underreported deaths, as the studies linked from Bubba showed.
 
bystander said:
There is no consequence to being wrong in America.
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They're certainly trying to make it so, and that's my big problem with many "experts" whose findings are provided to politicians to advocate an agenda. They (or certainly the politicians exploiting them) expect a level of deference that their record simply doesn't support. This is the problem with this controversy and climate change.
 
I'm still confused as to what data you're using. In order for this to have an IFR of 0.2 percent, you'd need serological or antibody studies that imply a 13% carrier rate for the entire population. The highest I've seen with smaller samples was closer to 5 percent. The MLB study done with able-bodied athletes with racial makeups similar to the population of the US ran a 0.9 percent antibody rate, and that was probably the biggest sample yet.

The other side of underreported cases is also underreported deaths, as the studies linked from Bubba showed.
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Honestly, it isn't my data. I am reading others doing the calculations. But they are using all the data and trying their best to follow how different states are proceeding with tests. Some states quit reporting altogether. Some started to just test probable cases. They are using serological studies from around the US. I think they estimate about 10% case rate for the US.
 
dukesteer said:
You forgot to add...

If you’re not a Republican, a Trump hater or don’t work for Fox News...
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Well yes, there's that.

The Doctor of Record has nothing to lose. He can say whatever he wants because the rest of life on earth is not his concern. The "If you open up then you are advocating that we kill some people for the economy" crowd are despicable to me. There are better ways to express concern. It's absolute show-boating to me. A no-brainer comment. It offers nothing of substance other than political terror. They offer no alternative except to assume the Fed can print money into perpetuity and watch as a permanent welfare class grows while real entrepreneurs are devastated.
 
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NJlonghorn said:
Do you have data supporting this? I haven't found anything specific to heart-disease and stroke deaths in recent weeks, but what I have been able to find is inconsistent with your assertion:
  1. Hospital admissions for heart attacks and strokes have fallen, but are still occurring at 60+% of their usual clip. Link It is not clear whether the decrease is because there are fewer actual cases, or because fewer people are seeking treatment.
  2. This chart of weekly all-cause mortality suggests that coronavirus is supplementing US death totals, as opposed to replacing deaths from other causes.
Interestingly, the all-cause mortality tables allow you to filter the data in various ways. Most notably, if you choose the second tab along the top ("WithAndWithoutCovid"), you will see that non-COVID deaths are actually UP during the pandemic. Does this mean COVID-related deaths are being under-reported? That's hard to say, but it certainly seems like a possibility.
Click to expand...

The NYT has noticed, even if you havent
Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone?

So has Yale Medicine
Hospitals Report Fewer Heart Attacks and Strokes Amid COVID-19

Phillie noticed the trend too
Fearing coronavirus at hospitals, patients with heart attacks or strokes may be staying away, doctors say

Washington sees it, why cant you?
UW Medicine sees decline in heart attack and stroke admissions amid COVID-19 pandemic
"... doctors ... have observed a drop in both heart attack and stroke admissions.
.... 50% drop in heart attack admissions since the start of the outbreak."​

So, again, I note the miracle occurring and look forward to all the Nobels being awarded
 
Monahorns said:
Honestly, it isn't my data. I am reading others doing the calculations. But they are using all the data and trying their best to follow how different states are proceeding with tests. Some states quit reporting altogether. Some started to just test probable cases. They are using serological studies from around the US. I think they estimate about 10% case rate for the US.
Click to expand...

Who is they?

Even the LA County one, which was called out by doctors for being a cattle call for "if you feel like you had Covid-19 symptoms at some point, come get your serology test done," and therefore, indicative of antibodies of people who live in a densely-populated are AND feel like they might have had coronavirus instead of the whole population, had a top range of 5.6%. And you're using data that says it's twice that high.

While I'm sure the number of people exposed to it is increasing, there's no actual data to alter the denominator by that stretch. It would be straight up "you know how we've had 1.5 million confirmed cases, and many of those are positives that got counted two or three times? Well, multiply it by 20."
 
Joe Fan said:
The NYT has noticed, even if you havent
Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone?

So has Yale Medicine
Hospitals Report Fewer Heart Attacks and Strokes Amid COVID-19

Phillie noticed the trend too
Fearing coronavirus at hospitals, patients with heart attacks or strokes may be staying away, doctors say

Washington sees it, why cant you?
UW Medicine sees decline in heart attack and stroke admissions amid COVID-19 pandemic
"... doctors ... have observed a drop in both heart attack and stroke admissions.
.... 50% drop in heart attack admissions since the start of the outbreak."​

So, again, I note the miracle occurring and look forward to all the Nobels being awarded
Click to expand...

The articles you cite do not support your claim that deaths due to heart disease and strokes have fallen -- much less that they have fallen to near zero, as you asserted.

Instead, the articles say exactly what I did. Hospital admissions for heart attack and stroke have fallen, but only by 40% or so. And that is either mostly or entirely because people who suffer heart attacks and strokes are staying home instead of going to the hospital.

And just to be clear -- this is not my spin on the articles. It is what the articles explicitly say.
 
NJlonghorn said:
The articles you cite do not support your claim that deaths due to heart disease and strokes have fallen -- much less that they have fallen to near zero, as you asserted..
Click to expand...

Every single article notes the declining stats of heart attacks and strokes
And I could bury you with another 25 articles saying the same. Or 100.
You are missing the point. Actually you are missing multiple points if we include the original ironic humor of it all. But I have read enough of your posts by now to realize this is intentional on your part. So carry on my wayward son.
 
Joe Fan said:
Every single article notes the declining stats of heart attacks and strokes
And I could bury you with another 25 articles saying the same. Or 100.
You are missing the point. Actually you are missing multiple points if we include the original ironic humor of it all. But I have read enough of your posts by now to realize this is intentional on your part. So carry on my wayward son.
Click to expand...

For your point to make any sense, you have to equate the following phrases:
  • deaths due to heart attacks and strokes
  • hospital admissions due to heart attacks and strokes
The articles you cite make it very clear that they can't be equated.
 
Horns 11, remember 5.6% in LA Co. was almost a month ago. That doesn't explain all the difference but some of it. There are also different data sets people are looking at and different ways people are making the calculations.
 
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